The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

 

 

Any validity to this?

Showtimes have been popping up but aren't on sale yet for July 22, so it appears not.

[AJG]

42 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Showtimes have been popping up but aren't on sale yet for July 22, so it appears not.

 

Maybe movies are taking a cue from the gaming industry and they're delaying products only a couple months away...

[filmlover]

Elvis is getting plenty of PLFs all day for the whole weekend it comes out but some of them are only showing it during the day or having the last show start at 7:00 so seems obvious at those place that The Black Phone will take over for the final show (not a surprise since horror movies sell best at night)

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 hours ago, BruiseCruise said:

 

 

Any validity to this?

Didn't @EmpireCity debunk this rumour when it first made the rounds?

 

My take is somewhere inbetween. Yes, the movie will have to be delayed, but the VFX crunch is far less than a lot of people think. It got pushed to mid-August in my homeland so I imagine that's where it'll go in the US.

[titanic2187]

Just now, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Didn't @EmpireCity debunk this rumour when it first made the rounds?

 

My take is somewhere inbetween. Yes, the movie will have to be delayed, but the VFX crunch is far less than a lot of people think. It got pushed to mid-August in my homeland so I imagine that's where it'll go in the US.

Maybe the entire industry is busying on avatar 2.

[filmlover]

July is such an unevenly distributed month lol.

 

7/1: Minions

7/8: Thor

7/15: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Paws of Fury, Where the Crawdads Sing

7/22: Nope

7/29: Super-Pets

 

4/5 weekends have only one movie each opening, even if Minions and especially Thor are sure to receive plenty of screens. I doubt Universal would want to give up such a prime spot.

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, M37 said:

It’s tracking much closer to F9 over last week than Vemon tbh. That’s still much better than CBM comps, puts it in ~$17-$19 range for Thursday, and still quite possible we see a late Venom-ish push that gets it into low $20s, but a $25/$200 opening looking less and less likely with each new update 

Are you correcting me? I used to track Venom 2 back then daily at both MTC. I did not even post all the numbers and so I can see a trend. 

 

That said this does not mean its going to behave exactly like Venom rest of the run. But trend is there for sure. F9 I tracked as well and its PS was horrible at this point. It only made a move in the final week. 

[charlie Jatinder]

I thought we decided to ignore Venom 2. Its sales initially were likely deflated by changing release date shenanigans. 

Edited June 2, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I thought we decided to ignore Venom 2. Its sales initially were likely deflated by changing release date shenanigans. 

I am just looking at trend over past 3 days and how Venom 2 behaved. They are eerily similar. But not literally comparing overall previews from Venom 2. That is one of a kind presales for sure. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:

That seems really good for a limited release.

its not a limited release

[Alex SciChannel]

7 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

its not a limited release

Crimes of the Future

NEON

$1,300,000

$1,300,000

~900

NEW

[charlie Jatinder]

48 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am just looking at trend over past 3 days and how Venom 2 behaved. They are eerily similar. But not literally comparing overall previews from Venom 2. That is one of a kind presales for sure. 

I don't have BW sales by daily increases in ticket. But  I think we worked out around 20k in t-14 to t-7 day. JW will be 22k may be

 

 

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't have BW sales by daily increases in ticket. But  I think we worked out around 20k in t-14 to t-7 day. JW will be 22k may be

 

 

BW was at 86623/542525 (T-7). I dont see JW hitting that for sure. T-5 for BW (97755/564418) also looks tough. As long as pace of JW is ahead of that it will catch up and final week should be much better. Plus this will have much higher ticket price as BW operated in limited capacity(selling only part of PLF tickets). 

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

BW was at 86623/542525 (T-7). I dont see JW hitting that for sure. T-5 for BW (97755/564418) also looks tough. As long as pace of JW is ahead of that it will catch up and final week should be much better. Plus this will have much higher ticket price as BW operated in limited capacity(selling only part of PLF tickets). 

BW tickets were I think low because it sold very well for matinee shows while JWD is still selling heavily in evening shows

[John2015]

57 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Crimes of the Future

NEON

$1,300,000

$1,300,000

~900

NEW

It is strange.  "Crimes of the Future " will open in around 900 theaters, but I have not seen any TV spots.

 

On the other hand, "The Phantom of the Open" will only open in around 6 theaters on Friday, but I had already seen several TV spots.

Edited June 2, 2022 by John2015

[Alex SciChannel]

 

Edited June 2, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, John2015 said:

It is strange.  "Crimes of the Future " will open in around 900 theaters, but I have not seen any TV spots.

 

On the other hand, "The Phantom of the Open" will only open in around 6 theaters on Friday, but I had already seen several TV spots.

It's because studios like Neon do not do TV spots. they rely on reviews and social media presence as to say movie in marketing

[el sid]

JW3, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, June 10 (8 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 453 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 325 (18 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 85 (13 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 38 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 70 (11 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 389 (18 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.277 (26 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.637.
Up 7% since yesterday, that's ok.

 

Comps (the same as yesterday): Uncharted had with 10 days to go 408 sold tickets

and Top Gun: Maverick had on Monday of its release week 2.743 sold tickets (= 4 days left for JW3 to overtake it which will happen tomorrow).

Crimes of the Future had today 185 sold tickets for today and 104 sold tickets for tomorrow, on both days with showtimes in 4 theaters.

Thursday comps: The Forever Purge (1.3M from previews) had on Thursday for Thursday 241 sold tickets

and Firestarter (0.4M from previews) had 171 sold tickets.
 

Friday comps: Old (16.9M OW) had 500 sold tickets,

Malignant (5.4M OW) had 237 sold tickets,

The Night House (2.9M OW) had 90 sold tickets,

Firestarter (3.8M OW) had 144 sold tickets

and Antlers (4.3M OW) had 136 sold tickets.

With also pretty few locations ca. 2M OW would be my guess.

Elvis had today almost exactly the same numbers as The Black Phone yesterday (95 respectively 34 sold tickets): 91 sold tickets for Thursday in 5 theaters and 31 sold tickets for Friday, also in 5 theaters.
Not a stellar start in my theaters, but also not bad.
 

[Alex SciChannel]

 

[keysersoze123]

^^^

@el sid please look at thursday for JWD. Friday PS is not that relevant as of today. It will have stronger true friday anyway as bar for JWD is higher than TGM OW.