The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Minions Friday MTC1 PS final - 224419/1281333 3310406.41 7075 shows

 

WOW. This is going to go above 30m true friday at this rate. Probably will need 33m to hit 100m by sunday !!!!

Double the LY opening? 

[M37]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Minions Friday MTC1 PS final - 224419/1281333 3310406.41 7075 shows

 

WOW. This is going to go above 30m true friday at this rate. Probably will need 33m to hit 100m by sunday !!!!

Do wonder if perhaps a semi-holiday Friday for a family film is going to have a higher early presale rate than a typical release (ie very heavy for matinee), so maybe not >$30M, but at least 3x Thursday/high $20Ms seems likely

 

[charlie Jatinder]

So this is the first major release we got wrong in a long time. Venom 2 was there but we had excuse of release date vagueness giving it an unusual trend. We didn't see $100M OW coming for Minions until now. 

 

I was thinking around $60-65M before Monday, only TUE I started thinking $75M+ and on WED took $85-95M train, which is a bit too late, but I guess happens. 

 

After how JWD didn't get big jumps, thought Minions may be following same route. It didn't.

Edited July 1, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Deep Wang]

 

 

[Jonwo]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

I tend to agree - my general thought is that it feels like Bad Guys but with DC branding, and factoring in summer (softer weekends/higher weekdays) expecting it to open in about the same mid-$20s range. But should have decent-ish legs into August if not September

I think it'll be low to mid $30m OW which would be on par with Space Jam but better legs. 

 

 

[MrPink]

 

 

[keysersoze123]

So Minions under indexed at MTC1 and probably sold more adult tickets than what we thought. This is insane. Just locks up 100m over 3 days. Can it come close to 1st movies OW. it did 116m OW. 

[Tinalera]

ight, so my excel decided to bugger up today and Im trying to sort it out. I don't know if Ill get a friday count or comp done today-sorry  

 

Had pondered putting whatever numbers I had up, but Im not confident in their accuracy. Hopefully I can at least get Thor4 count up later

 

[THUNDER BIRD]

18 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

 

Bananas..!!

[M37]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So this is the first major release we got wrong in a long time. Venom 2 was there but we had excuse of release date vagueness giving it an unusual trend. We didn't see $100M OW coming for Minions until now. 

 

I was thinking around $60-65M before Monday, only TUE I started thinking $75M+ and on WED took $85-95M train, which is a bit too late, but I guess happens. 

 

After how JWD didn't get big jumps, thought Minions may be following same route. It didn't.

"Getting wrong" might be a bit harsh - didn't have the sales to say otherwise, or the comps to suggest what was coming was even possible. Even if one was previously eyeballing a say $70-$80 or even $80-$90 range, there was ample evidence to suggest that had to be lowered by T-7

 

On 6/27/2022 at 9:43 AM, M37 said:

Looking at the last couple of Minions updates and corresponding growth rate, it looks poised to explode right up through Thursday 

 

Currently expecting the final (T-1hr) totals to be at least 3x, if not 3.5x current totals, and a preview number stating with at least a $7

Even as much I was metaphorically jumping up and down on Monday about the growth rate and potential, Minions was such a significant outlier that it was difficult to project in good faith that it would ultimately go as high as the numbers suggested ... so I lowballed, presuming some flukiness in the data that would correct a bit. But it didn't, and prior results were once again predictive

 

To tease the project I'm working on: The most important sales period for a new release after the opening surge is the weekend before release (T-7 to T-4). For those of you who don't have the time for daily tracking and updates, or for titles not worth a full daily tracking run, would highly recommend trying to grab those two data points

 

 

[Jonwo]

2 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

I think a 40M minimum is a little generous (I'm pegging for a 35M opener), but I would be shocked if Super Pets opened on the level of The Bad Guys. I'm far from that movie's target audience, but it's a film that combines superheroes, talking animals, wacky humor that will for sure feature like 5 fart jokes, and Dwayne Johnson as the star. That's basically everything kids love. The only other things you need to add are a dinosaur and outer space and you're all set.

 

There was a pee joke and a slightly adult joke just in the second trailer alone.

 

The most surprising thing about Super Pets is how it hadn't happened a lot sooner. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

34 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So this is the first major release we got wrong in a long time. Venom 2 was there but we had excuse of release date vagueness giving it an unusual trend. We didn't see $100M OW coming for Minions until now. 

 

I was thinking around $60-65M before Monday, only TUE I started thinking $75M+ and on WED took $85-95M train, which is a bit too late, but I guess happens. 

 

After how JWD didn't get big jumps, thought Minions may be following same route. It didn't.

JWD we learned afterwards was a significantly older (earlier-buying) audience than FK, I think that explains why it didn't really have any amazing trend. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/30/2022 at 10:20 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Minions	PLF	27	519	1,140	6,128	18.60%	$14.28	$16,276.92
		Standard	70	849	2,023	9,815	20.61%	$10.54	$21,319.89
	Total		97	1,368	3,163	15,943	19.84%	$11.89	$37,596.81
T-7	Thor 4	PLF	57	59	3,936	11,672	33.72%	$15.87	$62,456.38
		Standard	87	82	2,411	11,439	21.08%	$11.84	$28,549.78
	Total		144	141	6,347	23,111	27.46%	$14.34	$91,006.16

 

By matinee

 

 

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Minions	N	62	795	1,919	10,104	18.99%	$13.16	$25,251.44
		Y	35	573	1,244	5,839	21.31%	$9.92	$12,345.37
	Total		97	1,368	3,163	15,943	19.84%	$11.89	$37,596.81
T-7	Thor 4	N	103	104	5,086	16,531	30.77%	$14.99	$76,258.00
		Y	41	37	1,261	6,580	19.16%	$11.70	$14,748.16
	Total		144	141	6,347	23,111	27.46%	$14.34	$91,006.16

 

Minions T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 Thu - 1.565x (7.79m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 2.24x (10.95m)

 - Fantastic Beasts - 1.57x (9.42m)

 

Final run for Thursday.  I'm a little concerned with the Sonic comp, so I won't go crazy with my prediction.  Let's say 8.6m (avg Sonic/LY) for previews.

 

Thor T-7 comps

 - No Way Home - .404x (20.2m)

 - DS2 - .574x (20.67m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.64x (35.37m)

 

Decreased against DS2 and only slight increase against NWH.  Hopefully once we ship Minions out all eyes will fall on DS2.

 

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Minions (Fri)	PLF	48	1,391	1,391	9,682	14.37%	$13.56	$18,860.58
		Standard	118	2,698	2,698	16,332	16.52%	$10.40	$28,072.13
	Total		166	4,089	4,089	26,014	15.72%	$11.48	$46,932.71

 

By matinee

 

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Minions (Fri)	N	71	2,104	2,104	11,667	18.03%	$12.90	$27,147.03
		Y	95	1,985	1,985	14,347	13.84%	$9.97	$19,785.68
	Total		166	4,089	4,089	26,014	15.72%	$11.48	$46,932.71

 

I don't usually look at Friday sales until morning of, but tomorrow will be busy so I wanted to go ahead and get the sheet set up.   That being said, I do have a few movies that can be used for loose comps.

 

Minions Fri T-1 comps

 - NWH - .225x (16.2m)

 - Batman - .529x (18.5m)

 - DS2 - .307x (16.79m)

 - TG2 - .707x (23.12m)

 - JW3 - .4x (16.65m)

 - Morbius - 2.71x (31.47m)

 

We know for a fact that Minions is much much more backloaded on presales.  I compared the rate change on these movies in the last day to their rate change for previews presales in the same period (T-1 to T-0).   If Minions rate holds true, here are the approximate comps:

 

Maybe Minions Fri T-0 comps?

 - NWH - .282x (20.31m)

 - Batman - .623x (21.81m)

 - DS2 - .385x (21.04m)

 - TG2 - .726x (23.75m)

 - JW3 - .41x (17.01m)

 - Morbius - 2.49x (28.85m)

 - Elvis - 2.51x (23.26m)

 - FB3 - 1.845x (26.88m)

 

Hypothetical prediction - 25.5m true Fri

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Minions (Fri)	PLF	48	1,726	3,117	9,682	32.19%	$13.64	$42,508.98
		Standard	120	3,218	5,916	16,527	35.80%	$10.06	$59,531.30
	Minions (Fri) Total		168	4,944	9,033	26,209	34.47%	$11.30	$102,040.28
T-6	Thor 4	PLF	57	111	4,047	11,672	34.67%	$15.85	$64,144.09
		Standard	87	142	2,553	11,439	22.32%	$11.80	$30,134.82
	Thor 4 Total		144	253	6,600	23,111	28.56%	$14.28	$94,278.91

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Minions (Fri)	N	71	2,163	4,267	11,667	36.57%	$13.01	$55,534.24
		Y	97	2,781	4,766	14,542	32.77%	$9.76	$46,506.04
	Minions (Fri) Total		168	4,944	9,033	26,209	34.47%	$11.30	$102,040.28
T-6	Thor 4	N	103	180	5,266	16,531	31.86%	$14.95	$78,721.33
		Y	41	73	1,334	6,580	20.27%	$11.66	$15,557.58
	Thor 4 Total		144	253	6,600	23,111	28.56%	$14.28	$94,278.91

 

So Thursday ended up pretty close to the Lightyear comp (10.95m) than anything else.  The sales came fast and furious the last day, and we're seeing the same thing already for today.  In my projection post above, the comps pointed to a ~6200 final for Friday.  It almost hit 5k in new sales alone.

 

Minions Fri T-0 comps

 - FB3 - 2.718x (38.12m)

 - NWH - .416x (29.92m)

 - Batman - .917x (32.18m)

 - DS2 - .566x (30.99m)

 - TG2 - 1.07x (34.98m)

 - JW3 - .605x (25.18m)

 

These are unadjusted numbers.  Every single comp that I adjust based on Thursday's multiplier comes out over 40m!  I think >30m true Friday is a given now.  I'll put my prediction at 34m

 

Thor T-6 comps

 - No Way Home - missed

 - DS2 - missed

 - Batman + EA - missed

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/30/2022 at 9:08 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Looking at the other three comps, I'd expect today to at least match yesterday's sales with the possibility of up to 15% increase.  That would put the final comps in a range from 10.4m to 11.4m.

I should have stuck with this but chickened out after my last run.  Good to know it followed the trends after all.

[charlie Jatinder]

35 minutes ago, M37 said:

"Getting wrong" might be a bit harsh - didn't have the sales to say otherwise, or the comps to suggest what was coming was even possible. Even if one was previously eyeballing a say $70-$80 or even $80-$90 range, there was ample evidence to suggest that had to be lowered by T-7

The point is to see opening numbers far out with sales data. 

It's fine. Would have failed with something someday.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins Final

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
331	83,149	23,033	27.70%	$257,990	$11.20

 

Excellent final day, adding over 16K. Actual gross shall be around $230K approx, which will normally be $10-12M but this seems to be over-indexing region. If Harkins is performing like this, we can assume Cinemark is too.

 

Comps

0.65x Jurassic World: Dominion - $11.6M (ATP adj gives $10.4M)

1.65x Lightyear - $9.6M (taking Lightyear $5.8M, ATP adj gives $9M)

1.94x Sonic 2 - $12.1M (ATP adj gives $11M)

 

Comps are all very high. The main purpose of tracking Harkins is to estimate non-MTCs. Doing that, I am coming around $9.3M approx previews. So let's take $9-9.5M.

Well done Harkins though. I should treat you better.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 4/22/2022 at 7:00 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Watch out for number fives I guess. 👀

I told you so guys.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So this is the first major release we got wrong in a long time. Venom 2 was there but we had excuse of release date vagueness giving it an unusual trend. We didn't see $100M OW coming for Minions until now. 

 

I was thinking around $60-65M before Monday, only TUE I started thinking $75M+ and on WED took $85-95M train, which is a bit too late, but I guess happens. 

 

After how JWD didn't get big jumps, thought Minions may be following same route. It didn't.

 

I'm happy if I turn out wrong by the end of the weekend:).  I did pick Minions to beat Lightyear, so there's my silver lining, but I didn't expect the coming butt-kicking we're gonna get.

 

PS - And the higher Minions goes, the more I think we'll see knock on effects like we did for Top Gun Maverick to the June movies...

[Sandro Mazzola]

Last Monday my numbers had the FSS at 86m and the 4day over 100m

[Porthos]

37 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I told you so guys.

 

Just don't look at what you said about TGM in that convo. 

 

(yes, I did remember it, but decided not to say anything — until now )