The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

I assume the Avatar re-release is only playing at 3D-equipped theaters. Makes sense, I guess. Obviously the sequel will play in 4,000+ theaters as a brand new movie (and not a re-issue of one that's nearly 13 years old) regardless.

[Eric the Marxist]

21 hours ago, The Eric King said:

Don't Worry Darling Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	816	6980	11.69%

 

Comp

4.364x of The Lost City T-8 (14.18M)

 

So I wanted to start this yesterday, but today was really bad for me personally, so I'm off a day. But we're still here. And to clarify, a good majority of these tickets come from the Monday IMAX Live showings. But even if you take that out, we're still at 279 tickets sold, which is still nearly 1.5 times Lost City at the same point in time. This right here is the real deal mah bois.

Don't Worry Darling Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	886	6980	12.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 70

 

Comp

4.160x of The Lost City T-7 (13.52M)

[Ezen Baklattan]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 6PM, Woman King is 1527/30370 (112 showings) $16,434

Expecting 2-2.2K final for $1.4M ish previews. 

I think it'll be kind of backloaded, so those previews could get it to a $6m Friday and high teens weekend. We'll see what happens.

[M37]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Relatedly, Shawn, is it possible to get an approximate theater/screen count for PLF theaters in the DOM market now versus 2009?  Did some minor digging and wasn't able to come up with much public info that was easily findable (though I did find some info for 2015).  

 

I ask because PLF has utterly exploded since 2009 (which would have been pretty much IMAX only back then, right? [EDITED:  Looks like Cinemark started to roll out XD in 2009, with Regal launching RPX in 2010]), but I'm curious to see exactly how much it has grown in the last 13 years.

These are the numbers I found doing research for the Avatar Under club (I don't have all the specific sources logged, but they were reputable, mostly the company/brand site itself and should be accurate, though some small MOE depending on whether they are up to date)

On 9/12/2022 at 10:22 AM, M37 said:

With that said, the drop-off in 3D has been supplanted by Premium Large Formats, most notably IMAX, which has grown from 178 domestic screens at the time of Avatar’s release to nearly 400 at present, plus the addition of XD (168), Dolby (127), RPX (104) ScreenX (35), 4DX (32) and a handful of others

 

In 2009, IMAX was the only one, at 179 operating domestic locations (per several articles around Avatar's release, though a few may have opened later during the run). Today, the domestic market has those totals above, plus Cineplex UltraAXV (78) and Marcus UltraScreen DLX (15), and surely a handful more gets to about ~950, or an estimated 433% increase in PLF screens since Avatar's release. However, many of these are converted standard auditoriums, especially the MTC specific versions, generally with a smaller seat count than a designed/built IMAX, meaning overall PLF capacity has probably increased by a smaller % than that.

 

Also found this PLF discussion article from PBO from last year, but the actual report referenced is subscriber only

Edited September 16, 2022 by M37

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

11 hours ago, John2015 said:

I had never any TV spots of "Moonage Daydream".  

 

even Neon's previous release "Fire of Love" had TV spots.  (I watched the TV spots on some TV channels.)

 

 

you really love TV spots

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 6PM, Woman King is 1527/30370 (112 showings) $16,434

Expecting 2-2.2K final for $1.4M ish previews. 

Woman King Harkins

 

THU - 2003/30370 (112 showings) $22,176

There are 2 more shows to go which will add may be 10-25 seats. Looks like $1.3-1.4M previews.

[John2015]

7 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

you really love TV spots

I just try to add some aspect on box office analysis.

 

And the films likes  "Moonage Daydream" need TV spots, since it is targeted for older audience.  (But films like "Barbarian" and "Smile" don't need too many TV spots, since they are targeted for younger audience.)

Edited September 16, 2022 by John2015

[Eric the Marxist]

Quorum Updates

Smile T-15: 31.12% Awareness, 5.43 Interest

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile T-22: 24.71%, 4.74

Halloween Ends T-29: 51.23%, 6.27

Tar T-36: 10.36%, 3.86

 

Pearl T-1: 17.9% Awareness, 4.55 Interest

Comps (All Final): The Night House w/ 18.09% Awareness & 5.17 Interest, Antlers w/ 21.71% & 4.81, The Cursed w/ 25.12% & 5.12, X w/ 23.58% & 4.94, Men w/ 18.5% & 4.7, Barbarian w/ 20.52% & 4.98

 

Final General Awareness: 5% chance of double-digits opening

General Interest: 28% chance of double digits

Horror Awareness: 14% chance of double digits

Horror Interest: 43% chance of double digits

 

The Woman King T-1: 37.83% Awareness, 5.17 Interest

Comps (All Final): Stillwater w/ 36.44% Awareness & 5.73 Interest, Dear Evan Hansen 31.52% & 4.92, Ambulance 38.27 & 5.7, Where the Crawdads Sing w/ 32.67% & 5.42, Beast 39.28% & 5.68

 

Final General Awareness: 23% chance of double-digit opening, 3.5% chance over 20M

General Interest: 67% chance of double digits, 51% over 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 78% chance over 5M, 33% chance over 10M

Original - Low Interest: 60% chance over 5M, 30% chance over 10M

 

Don't Worry Darling T-7: 30.22% Awareness, 5.07 Interest

Comps (All Final): Stillwater w/ 36.44% Awareness & 5.73 Interest, Dear Evan Hansen 31.52% & 4.92, Dog w/ 51.92% & 5.88, Where the Crawdads Sing w/ 32.67% & 5.42

 

Final General Awareness: 23% chance of double-digit opening, 3.5% chance over 20M

General Interest: 67% chance of double digits, 51% over 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 78% chance over 5M, 33% chance over 10M

Original - Low Interest: 60% chance over 5M, 30% chance over 10M

 

Ticket to Paradise T-36: 27.76% Awareness, 5.27 Interest

Comps (All T-30): Respect w/ 28.88% Awareness & 5.45 Interest, The Lost City w/ 48.19% & 5.7, Elvis w/ 30.06% & 5.14

 

T-30 General Awareness: 32% chance of double digits, 12% over 20M

General Interest: 72% chance of double digits, 57% over 20M, 47% over 30M, 37% over 40M

Original - High Awareness: 14% chance of double digits

Original - Low Interest: 55% chance of double digits, 44% chance over 20M, 33% chance over 30M

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever T-56: 62.16% Awareness, 6.70 Interest

Comps (All T-60): Spider-Man: Far From Home w/ 50.44% Awareness & 6.39 Interest, The Batman w/ 57.78% & 6.58, Doctor Strange 2 w/ 53.15% & 6.39, Thor 4 w/ 51.42% & 6.24

 

T-60 General Awareness: 86% chance over 100M

General Interest: 83% chance over 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance over 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance over 100M

[BadOlCatSylvester]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-halloween-ends-and-white-bird-a-wonder-story/

That Avatar projection... Yikes! Not a great sign for part 2 if you ask me.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

That Avatar projection... Yikes! Not a great sign for part 2 if you ask me.

lol overreaction much?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-halloween-ends-and-white-bird-a-wonder-story/

That Avatar projection... Yikes! Not a great sign for part 2 if you ask me.

It’s not indicative of anything except a misjudgment in theater count. Shawn had anticipated a release near the size of the NWH re-release but in actuality it will be less than half of that (3900 vs 1800).

[filmlover]

Here's Pro's latest forecast btw:

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/15/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
9/23/2022	Avatar (2022 Re-Release)	$6,000,000 – $12,000,000	-40%	$12,000,000 – $25,000,000	-44%	Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/23/2022	Don’t Worry Darling	$18,000,000 – $27,000,000	+48%	$45,000,000 – $67,500,000	+35%	Warner Bros. Pictures
9/27/2022	Mobile Suit Gundam Cucuruz Doan’s Island					Crunchyroll / Sony
9/30/2022	Bros	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$34,000,000 – $59,000,000		Universal Pictures
9/30/2022	Smile	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000		$35,000,000 – $65,000,000		Paramount Pictures
10/7/2022	Amsterdam	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$35,000,000 – $60,000,000		Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/7/2022	Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	$18,000,000 – $23,000,000		$66,000,000 – $95,000,000		Sony / Columbia Pictures
10/14/2022	Halloween Ends	$35,000,000 – $45,000,000		$65,000,000 – $84,000,000	-8%	Universal Pictures
10/14/2022	White Bird: A Wonder Story	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$35,000,000 – $65,000,000	12%	Lionsgate

[charlie Jatinder]

If Avatar re-release does $25M, $1B is very likely for A2. There is simply no reason for Avatar re-release to do 25M now.

 

Edit: I am not saying that Avatar won't do 25M. I am saying if it does that will be really impressive. 

Edited September 16, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric the Marxist]

13 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-halloween-ends-and-white-bird-a-wonder-story/

That Avatar projection... Yikes! Not a great sign for part 2 if you ask me.

This is gonna be a long three months, huh?

[SchumacherFTW]

1 minute ago, The Eric King said:

This is gonna be a long three months, huh?

On top of the interminable amount of time we've had already? 

[AJG]

22 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-halloween-ends-and-white-bird-a-wonder-story/

That Avatar projection... Yikes! Not a great sign for part 2 if you ask me.

 

It's a flop.

 

There's only one way to save Avatar 2 now!

 

[JustLurking]

6 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

It's a flop.

 

There's only one way to save Avatar 2 now!

 

I mean...You joke, but I do remember some guy saying Disney should've put A2's on Strange's post-credit scene...

[Cooper Legion]

9 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

It's a flop.

 

There's only one way to save Avatar 2 now!

 

Releasing Nov 11

[filmlover]

Can we back away from handwringing over Avatar for a second and talk about the fact they made a sequel to Wonder (is it still coming out next month? Because there's been zero effort to promote it in a while) that apparently has to do with World War II? What a random movie to try and turn into a franchise lmao.

[Eric the Marxist]

27 minutes ago, The Eric King said:

This is gonna be a long three months, huh?

Turns out I was right lol