The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

Only took a glance at Avatar's sales near me and they're looking...pretty good? One thing to keep in is that because it's going to be IMAX/3D heavy that means its numbers will be boosted by the extra charge. $10M+ is easily achievable IMO.

[Eric Deetz]

On 9/19/2022 at 11:42 PM, The Eric King said:

Don't Worry Darling Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	43	1134	7856	14.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 119

 

Comp

0.865x of Dune T-3 (4.41M)

2.189x of The Lost City T-3 (7.11M)

0.886x of Morbius T-3 (5.05M)

Don't Worry Darling Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	1251	9784	12.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 117

 

Comp

0.824x of Dune T-2 (4.2M)

1.851x of The Lost City T-2 (6.01M)

0.827x of Morbius T-2 (4.71M)

2.702x of Downton Abbey 2 T-2 (5.13M)

1.945x of Elvis T-2 (6.81M)

4.811x of Crawdads T-2 (11.07M)

[ringedmortality]

Anyone doing Bros?

[Eric Deetz]

On 9/19/2022 at 11:52 PM, The Eric King said:

Avatar Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Monday Before Release (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	53	402	10459	3.84%

 

Comp

2.379x of E.T. Monday Before Release (1.16M)

1.260x of Rogue One Monday Before Release (630K)

1.358x of Jaws Monday Before Release (1.18M)

1.327x of No Way Home Monday Before Release (2.33M)

Avatar Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Tuesday Before Release (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	62	515	11809	4.36%

 

Comp

2.441x of E.T. Tuesday Before Release (1.19M)

1.542x of Rogue One Tuesday Before Release (771K)

1.430x of Jaws Tuesday Before Release (1.25M)

1.599x of No Way Home Tuesday Before Release (2.81M)

[Borobudur]

Avatar is doing super good at IMAX 3D hall almost like a new movie around my area, but 2D is just tepidly empty. And standard 3D get a rare higher than usual occupancy rate  

[charlie Jatinder]

Don't Worry Darling Harkins T-2 Days

 

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
86	22,228	1,404	6.32%	$16,438	$11.71

 

Comps

1.52x of Where the Crawdads Sing - $3.5M

0.48x of Elvis - $1.7M

0.82x of Bullet Train - $3.6M

 

Expecting $3.5M ish previews for it, including EA. Probably lead to $17-22M weekend.

[Eric Deetz]

Quorum Updates

Amsterdam T-16: 25.2% Awareness, 5.41 Interest

Halloween Ends T-23: 52.46%, 6.45

Women Talking T-95: 14.78%, 4.79

Fast X T-240: 40.23%, 6.05

The Little Mermaid T-247: 55.65%, 6.01

 

Don't Worry Darling T-4: 30.36% Awareness, 5.02 Interest

Comps (All Final): Stillwater w/ 36.44% Awareness & 5.73 Interest, Dear Evan Hansen 31.52% & 4.92, Dog w/ 51.92% & 5.88, Where the Crawdads Sing w/ 32.67% & 5.42

*Note Don't Worry Darling's Final metrics are subject to change over the next few days*

 

Final General Awareness: 26% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 67% chance of double digits, 50% over 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 80% chance over 5M, 40% chance over 10M

Original - Low Interest: 64% chance over 5M, 36% chance over 10M

 

The Menu T-58: 17.09% Awareness, 4.95 Interest

Comps (All T-60): The Protege w/ 17.79% Awareness & 5.63, Last Night in Soho w/ 18.3% & 4.59, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent w/ 17.2% & 4.76, The Woman King w/ 17.2% & 4.8

 

T-60 General Awareness: 44% chance of double-digit opening, 20% chance of 20M

General Interest: 35% chance of double-digit opening

Original - Low Awareness: 25% chance over 5M

Original - Low Interest: 50% chance over 5M

 

She Said T-58: 14.65% Awareness, 4.46 Interest

Comps (All T-60): The Protege w/ 17.79% Awareness & 5.63, Dear Evan Hansen w/ 20.32% & 4.96, Last Night in Soho w/ 18.3% & 4.59, Where the Crawdads Sing w/ 21.58% & 4.95, The Woman King w/ 17.2% & 4.8

 

T-60 General Awareness: 44% chance of double-digit opening, 20% chance of 20M

General Interest: 35% chance of double-digit opening

Original - Low Awareness: 25% chance over 5M

Original - Low Interest: 50% chance over 5M

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, Borobudur said:

Avatar is doing super good at IMAX 3D hall almost like a new movie around my area, but 2D is just tepidly empty. And standard 3D get a rare higher than usual occupancy rate  

Yeah, it's really cleaning up in IMAX/PLF shows near me. Too bad this re-release is only for two weeks because it might've been leggy with more breathing room. I guess they can always bring it back that week before the sequel comes out looking at the schedule November/December schedule (Devotion is looking to get IMAX screens when it opens Thanksgiving weekend though I imagine Disney will also push Strange World for the giant screen formats for at least the daytime shows).

[Reed121]

26 minutes ago, Eric from Progressive said:

Quorum Updates

Amsterdam T-16: 25.2% Awareness, 5.41 Interest

Halloween Ends T-23: 52.46%, 6.45

Women Talking T-95: 14.78%, 4.79

Fast X T-240: 40.23%, 6.05

The Little Mermaid T-247: 55.65%, 6.01

 

Don't Worry Darling T-4: 30.36% Awareness, 5.02 Interest

Comps (All Final): Stillwater w/ 36.44% Awareness & 5.73 Interest, Dear Evan Hansen 31.52% & 4.92, Dog w/ 51.92% & 5.88, Where the Crawdads Sing w/ 32.67% & 5.42

*Note Don't Worry Darling's Final metrics are subject to change over the next few days*

 

Final General Awareness: 26% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 67% chance of double digits, 50% over 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 80% chance over 5M, 40% chance over 10M

Original - Low Interest: 64% chance over 5M, 36% chance over 10M

 

The Menu T-58: 17.09% Awareness, 4.95 Interest

Comps (All T-60): The Protege w/ 17.79% Awareness & 5.63, Last Night in Soho w/ 18.3% & 4.59, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent w/ 17.2% & 4.76, The Woman King w/ 17.2% & 4.8

 

T-60 General Awareness: 44% chance of double-digit opening, 20% chance of 20M

General Interest: 35% chance of double-digit opening

Original - Low Awareness: 25% chance over 5M

Original - Low Interest: 50% chance over 5M

 

She Said T-58: 14.65% Awareness, 4.46 Interest

Comps (All T-60): The Protege w/ 17.79% Awareness & 5.63, Dear Evan Hansen w/ 20.32% & 4.96, Last Night in Soho w/ 18.3% & 4.59, Where the Crawdads Sing w/ 21.58% & 4.95, The Woman King w/ 17.2% & 4.8

 

T-60 General Awareness: 44% chance of double-digit opening, 20% chance of 20M

General Interest: 35% chance of double-digit opening

Original - Low Awareness: 25% chance over 5M

Original - Low Interest: 50% chance over 5M

Do you mind telling me what Quorum is?

[Eric Deetz]

1 minute ago, Reed121 said:

Do you mind telling me what Quorum is?

The Quorum is a website that tracks awareness and interest data for upcoming releases. I update people on each movie, because I think it's an interesting, fairly accurate data source.

 

https://thequorum.com/

[M37]

57 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Too bad this re-release is only for two weeks

Often, these limited re-release runs will be extended beyond the “official” limited engagement schedule, depending largely on sales. With that said, Amsterdam has the IMAX exclusive starting on 10/7, so it would be in 3D and/or other PLF only beyond that point, and Disney is being a little … weird about this one, so I wouldn’t count on it 

[Reed121]

56 minutes ago, Eric from Progressive said:

The Quorum is a website that tracks awareness and interest data for upcoming releases. I update people on each movie, because I think it's an interesting, fairly accurate data source.

 

https://thequorum.com/

Thanks. 

[Valonqar]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

 

 

Expecting $3.5M ish previews for it, including EA. Probably lead to $17-22M weekend.

 

Ouch, under 20M would be awful after so much hype and 3M-ish previews. I get that DWD is going to be frontloaded af but under 20M would be really low. Hope not.

[GOGODanca]

On 9/20/2022 at 8:35 AM, GOGODanca said:

Tuesday morning update for Friday presales from Houston Area AMC's

 

Avatar Re-Release: 358 tickets sold scross 52 showtimes (8 theaters) + 1 sell out which i am skeptical about but will keep checking

 

DWD: 221 tickets sold across 57 showtimes (9 theaters)

 

DWD for Thursday: 277 tickets sold across 39 showtimes(10 theaters)

Update for Friday Sales: 

 

Avatar: 448 tickets sold across 57 showtimes (25.1% growth, 5 new showtimes)

 

DWD: 258 tickets sold across 81 showtimes  (16.7% growth, 24 new showtimes)

 

DWD Thursday Update:

 

367 tickets sold across 49 showtimes (32.5% growth, 10 new showtimes)

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by GOGODanca

[filmlover]

Box Office: ‘Don’t Worry Darling’ Targets $20 Million Debut as Off-Screen Drama Fuels Interest https://t.co/filEdjUuuF

— Variety (@Variety) September 20, 2022

[Cmasterclay]

Don't Worry Darling has sold jack shit around me in South Florida outside a couple of Dolby showings, but it's possible that this is doing much better in younger and whiter areas that are more clued in to the drama and part of the Styles fanbase (obviously we have plenty of young and white people here that like Styles, but just as a proportion)

[GOGODanca]

Cinemark sales for Friday:

 

Avatar:  476 tickets sold across 42 showtimes (13 theaters)

DWD: 751 tickets sold across 100 showtimes (12 theaters)

 

Although from what i can see Fandango and Atom still don't show any Cinemark listings for Avatar so maybe that deflated the number a bit, dunno

[filmlover]

28 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Don't Worry Darling has sold jack shit around me in South Florida outside a couple of Dolby showings, but it's possible that this is doing much better in younger and whiter areas that are more clued in to the drama and part of the Styles fanbase (obviously we have plenty of young and white people here that like Styles, but just as a proportion)

It depends on which areas in this state you're checking because I've been looking all around and it's been selling pretty well throughout the Palm Beach and Orlando areas for tomorrow and Friday (the 6:00 show at Disney Springs is almost sold out for Friday). I imagine this is going to be a very location-specific movie as to where it makes the most business.

[el sid]

Don't Worry Darling, counted today at 11am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 89 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 64 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 1 (3 showtimes - new)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 19 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 146 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 161 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 247 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 727.
Up ok 23.5% since yesterday.
Comps (both counted on Wednesday for Friday): Crawdads had 212 sold tickets

and The Lost City had 520 sold tickets.

 

Don't Worry Darling, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, September 23:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 110 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 205 (9 showtimes - so in this area it's doing fine)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 11 (5 showtimes - new)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 18 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 123 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 36 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 246 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 749.
Up good 31% since yesterday.
Comps (both counted on Wednesday for Friday): Crawdads had 185 sold tickets

and The Lost City had 519 sold tickets.

And again, the sales didn't slow down. Probably it will be frontloaded but a sub-20M OW would surprise me. Especially if the jumps till tomorrow stay (nearly) on the same level.

The Re-Release of Avatar had today for Friday 1.039 sold tickets in 7 theaters.
Up modest 9% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday): Jaws had 441 sold tickets,

NWH had 184 sold tickets (the presales indeed decreased because people realized that Saturday is the $3 Cinema Day)

and E.T. had 422 sold tickets.

Of course in comparison with NWH it looks way better for Avatar (@Alexdube) but the Re-Release of Spidey had great admissions on Saturday. Plus the film was still „hot“ (had overall good walk-ups) and Idk how big the Avatar walk-ups will be. I guess also not small and for sure higher than for Jaws. So around 10M I would say at the moment.

Edited September 21, 2022 by el sid

[el sid]

Bros had today 75 sold tickets for Thursday, September 29 (in 6 theaters because of an error in the AMC Sunset Place but that probably made no difference).

And for Friday it had today 65 sold tickets (in 7 theaters).

Normally that wouldn't be bad numbers for a Wednesday before the release week. The big problem is that it does very well in LA (67 respectively 41 sold tickets come from that theater) and mediocre in San Francisco. But in the other 5 theaters it sold nearly nothing. In NY it looks very mixed - in the AMC Fresh Meadows it had indeed 0 sold tickets for Thursday and 6 sold tickets for Friday but I saw that it does better in the Empire 25 with 29 respectively 31 sold tickets and it had so far no showtimes for Thursday in the AMC Lincoln Square but nice 51 sold tickets for Friday.
Overall this film will be quite popular on the Coasts I guess and not so popular in other areas.

Smile, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, September 29:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 38 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): ? (again an error report which is annoying because the Friday presales in that theater are the best of all theaters; normally these error reports vanish shortly before the release day)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 11 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): ? (error)
LA (AMC Universal): 49 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters: 100.
Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week = 5 days left for Smile): The Invitation had 96 sold tickets,

The Forever Purge had 104 sold tickets

and Beast had 147 sold tickets.

Very solid so far, especially because two big theaters are missing where it has good Friday presales (I guess that with these two theaters it would have ca. 175-200 sold tickets at the moment).

 

Smile, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, September 30:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 48 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 53 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 3 (2 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 3 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 26 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 14 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 148.
Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week): The Invitation had 87 sold tickets,

Old had 150 sold tickets

and Beast had 111 sold tickets.
 

Promising so far.