The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Don't Worry	PLF	14	362	362	3,509	10.32%	$15.27	$5,528.25
		Standard	31	292	292	4,360	6.70%	$11.54	$3,369.74
	Don't Worry Total		45	654	654	7,869	8.31%	$13.61	$8,897.99

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Don't Worry	N	34	581	581	6,038	9.62%	$14.00	$8,136.68
		Y	11	73	73	1,831	3.99%	$10.43	$761.31
	Don't Worry Total		45	654	654	7,869	8.31%	$13.61	$8,897.99

 

Comps

Crawdads - 1.272x (2.54m)

Elvis - .472x (1.51m)

Black Phone - .867x (2.26m)

Bullet Train - 1.42x (4.75m)

Nope - .515x (3.29m)

 

I've been away a few weeks so I have no idea where this is tracking elsewhere.  Just based on Santikos, I'd say mid 2s for previews.  Let's go with... 2.6m?  (I think I heard this had EA too, but not sure about that.  Usually Santikos would only have one or two shows for that so I'm not too worried, but this projection would be for true previews.)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Avatar (Fri)	PLF	34	471	471	5,340	8.82%	$17.21	$8,106.03
		Standard	12	33	33	1,604	2.06%	$10.57	$348.84
	Total		46	504	504	6,944	7.26%	$16.78	$8,454.87
T-1	Don't Worry (Fri)	PLF	16	332	332	4,191	7.92%	$15.04	$4,993.77
		Standard	68	206	206	8,705	2.37%	$11.73	$2,415.69
	Total		84	538	538	12,896	4.17%	$13.77	$7,409.46

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Avatar (Fri)	N	24	393	393	3,872	10.15%	$17.85	$7,016.35
		Y	22	111	111	3,072	3.61%	$12.96	$1,438.52
	Total		46	504	504	6,944	7.26%	$16.78	$8,454.87
T-1	Don't Worry (Fri)	N	41	458	458	6,018	7.61%	$14.29	$6,545.57
		Y	43	80	80	6,878	1.16%	$10.80	$863.89
	Total		84	538	538	12,896	4.17%	$13.77	$7,409.46

 

Don't Worry Fri comps

Crawdads - 1.123x (5.91m)

Elvis - missed

Black Phone - missed

Bullet Train - 1.486x (12.25m)

Nope - .607x (7.98m)

 

Pretty spread out so far - interested to see where the other two comps end up

 

Avatar Fri comps

JW3 - .05x (2.05m)

NWH - .028x (2m)

 

Not sure about comps for this

[filmlover]

Lyle tickets are now on sale, starts at 3 that Thursday and also appears it'll be splitting PLFs with Amsterdam that weekend.

[Tinalera]

Smile

Sept 29/30 (T-9/T-8)

SW/Toronto Ontario

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	18	33	9	6208	6217	0.0014
Fri	6	24	11	6455	6466	0.0017

 

Comp

x.0370 Nope (33,000 cdn only, 700k Can/US Thursday) 

x.0723 Nope (65,000 cdn only, 1.37 Mil Can/Us Friday)

 

Reminder or for those that are new, Canada is combined with US for domestic usually,  but I also do the Canada only and Can/US combo with my Canada numbers if for no other reason than its some more data and an interesting comparison point for those comparing and seeing how Canada does compared on its own-and sometimes shows the surprising difference between the numbers. 

 

 

More Seats but not much more sales for Smile. Really hard to read a week out, Ontario seems like voodoo when it comes to horror, never know what you're going to get. 

[Porthos]

First Black Adam showtimes are populating.

 

3pm previews.

 

(because of course they're 3pm)

[filmlover]

Also for those tracking limited releases TAR tickets are now on sale too (it's opening limited on the 7th and supposed to go nationwide on the 28th, though it appears to be getting a sizeable expansion on the 21st since a number of Florida theaters have tickets up for that date).

Edited September 22, 2022 by filmlover

[Tinalera]

20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

First Black Adam showtimes are populating.

 

3pm previews.

 

(because of course they're 3pm)

I somewhat excitedly went to Cineplex to see that Black Adam poster and......."coming soon". 

 

The way Cineplex runs though, it makes sense, pretty much any movie not named Disney/Marvel doesn't get advance tickets a month out so I expect probably first or 2nd week in Oct for those tickets to go on sale sadly

 

3pm preview....heck why not just make them noon and be done with it lol.

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

I somewhat excitedly went to Cineplex to see that Black Adam poster and......."coming soon". 

 

The way Cineplex runs though, it makes sense, pretty much any movie not named Disney/Marvel doesn't get advance tickets a month out so I expect probably first or 2nd week in Oct for those tickets to go on sale sadly

 

3pm preview....heck why not just make them noon and be done with it lol.

Oh, Black Adam tickets aren’t due to go on sale for a few more days (the 29th according to datpepper).  I just reckoned that if the official go ahead for when  ticket sales started had been given, some theaters might be putting up their initial slates, and in fact a couple did.

 

As for 3pm?  I reckon thanks to NWH standardizing 3pm, 2pm/3pm/4pm is the “new norm” instead of 4pm/5pm/7pm.

 

(once again I vow that if these start times get pushed before 2pm, I’m quitting the tracking business - everyone has their limits, and 2pm is my bright line in the sand) 

Edited September 22, 2022 by Porthos

[M37]

53 minutes ago, Porthos said:

First Black Adam showtimes are populating.

 

3pm previews.

 

(because of course they're 3pm)

I wonder if theaters will run largely 10pm shows for Black Adam Thursday? (I suspect they will given audience and expectations). But the larger presence of limited operating hours during the especially lean BO times only helps push preview starts earlier, where a 3p-8/9p spread isn’t all that much different from a 6p-11p one

 

Unrelated, but for those tracking, Smile has EA shows on 9/27 (if you didn’t already know)

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

I wonder if theaters will run largely 10pm shows for Black Adam Thursday? (I suspect they will given audience and expectations).

They are. A lot of theaters have already published showtimes and all of them have shows starting after 10.

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, M37 said:

DWD appears to be having some atypical market spread for Thursday sales, but I can't quite put my finger on the underlying cause and effect (demographic through line).

 

Enough data points to suggest $3M+ in total previews, but how high it goes and what IM it even has from there are pretty murky IMO. And Avatar re-release similarly has a wide range out possible outcomes from data in hand. A real choose your own narrative week (until we start getting real numbers in)

 

Could it be the Hispanic demo (which have been huge movie goers in the Covid era since they make up more and more of the 17-35 movie going audience) isn't going very strongly for DWD?  Thus, the West and Southwest chains just don't seem as strong as the other location chains...

[el sid]

I'm sorry, today I was just too busy and had to decide which film I count and I chose the Re-Release of Avatar. If I would count DWD now, the results wouldn't be real because the sales improve much with every hour on a Thurday.
 

Avatar had today 1.173 sold tickets for Friday.

Up 13% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Jaws had 474 sold tickets,

NWH had 212 sold tickets

and E.T. had 460 sold tickets.
So its Friday presales slowed a bit down in the past 48hrs but its jumps are still better than those of Jaws (which jumped only 7.5%) and E.T. (which jumped 9%). NWH had the best Thursday jump of the four films with 15%.

 

Because it isn't realistic that Avatar will do 5-6x the numbers of NWH (that would be 5-6x 6.5M OW) I also counted the Saturday of Avatar (a bit later than usually but still early enough I think).
And to my surprise its Saturday presales are better than the Friday presales (maybe because it has no Thursday shows?). It had today 1.228 sold tickets for Saturday.
So NWH had back then combined 212+750 = 962 sold tickets.
And Avatar has now 1.173+1.228 = 2.401 sold tickets.

Even if it has less walk-ups than NWH (and maybe it's the opposite because it attracts older and new fans) and a regular Saturday (which is OTOH helpful) it's hard for me to see it under 10M OW with these numbers.
So I say 10M+ OW.
 

[Old Spice]

Pretty good final day for DWD in the Salt Lake Valley. Here are the numbers:

 

Total Tix Sold

Cinemark Sugarhouse (SLC) 110

Cinemark Draper XD 54

Cinemark Farmington XD 98

Combined Total 262 (up 27% from Wednesday)

 

Sugarhouse Comps

124% of Crawdads (2.84M)

116% of Elvis (4.05)

167% of Lost City (5.42)

126% of Ghostbusters (5.69)

 

Combined Comp

87% of NOPE (5.57M)

 

Friday looks decent as well, with the prime evening shows running 50-70% at this point. Not super bullish on how the weekend is going to play out given those reviews, but tonight and tomorrow should give it a healthy start so I'll say 3.3/24.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[M37]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Could it be the Hispanic demo (which have been huge movie goers in the Covid era since they make up more and more of the 17-35 movie going audience) isn't going very strongly for DWD?  Thus, the West and Southwest chains just don't seem as strong as the other location chains...

Without getting too into the weeds, probably a factor, but it’s also more complicated/nuanced than that. But just thinking through this reply, I think may have mentally stumbled into a comp. We’ll see if it pans out 😉

[Eric Twister]

9 hours ago, Eric from Progressive said:

Don't Worry Darling Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	1436	9784	14.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 185

 

Comp

0.816x of Dune T-1 (4.16M)

1.855x of The Lost City T-1 (6.03M)

0.777x of Morbius T-1 (4.43M)

2.497x of Downton Abbey 2 T-1 (4.74M)

1.948x of Elvis T-1 (6.82M)

4.365x of Crawdads T-1 (10.04M)

Don't Worry Darling Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	1757	9784	17.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 321

 

Comp

0.752x of Dune (3.83M)

1.719x of The Lost City (5.59M)

0.643x of Morbius (3.67M)

2.614x of Downton Abbey 2 (4.97M)

1.636x of Elvis (5.73M)

3.056x of Where the Crawdads Sing (7.03M)

[DAJK]

It's a bit too early for me to do full comps, as only the 4PM shows have started where I am and not enough movies have done 4PM previews for me to have many good comps. I've got a busy night coming up so I might not be able to post full comps until late, but let's just say that so far, if BC is any indication, I would not be surprised in the slightest if DWD comes in at 4M+ previews.

 

Could BC just be overindexing? Sure, but let's wait and see. I feel like this movie will be far stronger in college towns than anywhere else.

[interiorgatordecorator]

3 hours ago, el sid said:

I'm sorry, today I was just too busy and had to decide which film I count and I chose the Re-Release of Avatar. If I would count DWD now, the results wouldn't be real because the sales improve much with every hour on a Thurday.
 

Avatar had today 1.173 sold tickets for Friday.

Up 13% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Jaws had 474 sold tickets,

NWH had 212 sold tickets

and E.T. had 460 sold tickets.
So its Friday presales slowed a bit down in the past 48hrs but its jumps are still better than those of Jaws (which jumped only 7.5%) and E.T. (which jumped 9%). NWH had the best Thursday jump of the four films with 15%.

 

Because it isn't realistic that Avatar will do 5-6x the numbers of NWH (that would be 5-6x 6.5M OW) I also counted the Saturday of Avatar (a bit later than usually but still early enough I think).
And to my surprise its Saturday presales are better than the Friday presales (maybe because it has no Thursday shows?). It had today 1.228 sold tickets for Saturday.
So NWH had back then combined 212+750 = 962 sold tickets.
And Avatar has now 1.173+1.228 = 2.401 sold tickets.

Even if it has less walk-ups than NWH (and maybe it's the opposite because it attracts older and new fans) and a regular Saturday (which is OTOH helpful) it's hard for me to see it under 10M OW with these numbers.
So I say 10M+ OW.
 

 

can it go beyond 12m?

[grim22]

Anyone know what's the Monday Mystery Movie? Regal has tickets for a movie for 5$ saying "watch a new movie before it's official release date. Which movie it is will be a mystery".

 

I'm guessing either Bros or Smile since they come out next weekend 

[Eric Twister]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Anyone know what's the Monday Mystery Movie? Regal has tickets for a movie for 5$ saying "watch a new movie before it's official release date. Which movie it is will be a mystery".

 

I'm guessing either Bros or Smile since they come out next weekend 

I think it's Amsterdam. The time is listed 140 minutes and the closest movie in that timeframe is Amsterdam at 134 minutes.

[John2015]

Paramount will open Paramount+ original movie "On the Come Up" in 603 theaters.  I am surprised.

I had seen a lot of TV spots, but they only mentioned the streaming release.     

 

(BTW, the TV spots of "Orphan 2" only only mentioned the streaming releass.)

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252640830-Theater-counts-Dont-Worry-Darling-debuts-in-4-113-theaters-and-Avatar-returns-to-the-big-screen

 

[M37]

24 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Anyone know what's the Monday Mystery Movie? Regal has tickets for a movie for 5$ saying "watch a new movie before it's official release date. Which movie it is will be a mystery".

 

I'm guessing either Bros or Smile since they come out next weekend 

From what I've heard, that would be a good guess