The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

Showtimes for I Wanna Dance with Somebody are starting to appear and it seems confirmed for a runtime of 142 minutes. Between that, Avatar, and Babylon, half of my holidays are gonna be spent in a movie theater lmao.

Edited November 21, 2022 by filmlover

[ky02121]

Showcase Cinemas still hasn’t added Avatar showtimes. 🙄

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

3) OD is T-25 from today so most major comps will already be available, though I’m not sure which would be the best to use. Leaning towards TGM and JWD.

 

Yes, I was thinking that JWD and, for non-Sacramento and Denver markets, TGM will be the best comps for A2. 

 

I separate out Sacto and Denver coz, if folks recall, TGM utterly exploded there in its initial pre-sale surge (perhaps due to the military base connection).  Sacto even more than Denver.

 

Unless A2 blows up on its first day (possible, haven't even started to set up sheets), gonna probably use JWD as my sole comp unless I find another one to go with it.

 

As for JWD, @IronJimbo, the reason it should be a good comp is that while it has a base of hard core fans which will rush to get tickets, it should be far more GA skewing than frontloaded properties like Marvel or Star Wars.  I'd be tempted to also use F9, but I think ticket inflation has finally killed off the usefulness of that comp.

 

(@M37 didn't track Elvis locally so even if I thought it was a good comp, couldn't do it)

Edited November 21, 2022 by Porthos

[Tinalera]

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

That was quick. 

 

(was already greyed out on Fandango)

*laughing* ha! Suckers, up here in Ontario they wait until a couple of weeks before, so get a nice extra break *Logs into Cineplex. Avatar 2 tickets available*...

 

....

 

 Sigh.....So it Begins (in Canada)

[Tinalera]

Right....so, I had a thought (yes it hurt).

 

I don't have any real comps for Avatar on my end...Like maybe MCU (?), but very little. So Im thinking of doing something different for Avatar. 

 

Im thinking (haven't decided fully yet), if I might just do 3 top ten theatre areas in Canada (Maybe like Toronto, Montreal, maybe Edmonton or Calgary-I won't step on the person doing BC's toes  ). Won't be doing comps but will be doing the usual seat counts so theres more of a geographic overview of Canada.

 

IF (thats a big IF) I do this, Im NOT doing essentially 30 theatres a day, at least not until like a week before opening I would try to alternate between 3 cities, one a day, (IE Toronto day 1, Montreal Day 2, Calgary day 3, Day 4 Toronto with change in how much sold prior).

 

If Im stepping on anyones toes let me know. Still havent decided fully, but am leaning that way.

Edited November 21, 2022 by Tinalera

[Porthos]

 

Ticket announcement is live on the Twitter-sphere

Edited November 21, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Just got done setting up my sheets and a fairly good start.  Cinema West (as sometimes happens) hasn't set up its showings yet, but they should be up soon enough.

 

But let me tell you... the resistance to 3D is *REAL*.

 

This is exactly the type of film one would expect to skew heavily to PLF yet the PLF penetration is "only" 43% of all tickets sold.  

 

The 3D percentage, as might be expected, is much higher than normal... except nearly all of them are the PLF showings.

 

3D PLF tickets sold:                     239 tickets

3D standard tickets sold:                 9 tickets

2D all formats tickets sold:          308 tickets

 

Now, just one market and incredibly early days, but if folks want to know if making (nearly) all PLF showings 3D is putting a thumb on the scale, I have to say: Yes.

 

NB:  There were a couple of massive group sales (including one at an A-tier theater for 140+ tickets) and all of them were for 2D, which is... interesting.

[IronJimbo]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Just got done setting up my sheets and a fairly good start.  Cinema West (as sometimes happens) hasn't set up its showings yet, but they should be up soon enough.

 

But let me tell you... the resistance to 3D is *REAL*.

 

This is exactly the type of film one would expect to skew heavily to PLF yet the PLF penetration is "only" 43% of all tickets sold.  

 

The 3D percentage, as might be expected, is much higher than normal... except nearly all of them are the PLF showings.

 

3D PLF tickets sold:                     239 tickets

3D standard tickets sold:                 9 tickets

2D all formats tickets sold:          308 tickets

 

Now, just one market and incredibly early days, but if folks want to know if making (nearly) all PLF showings 3D is putting a thumb on the scale, I have to say: Yes.

 

NB:  There were a couple of massive group sales (including one at an A-tier theater for 140+ tickets) and all of them were for 2D, which is... interesting.

 

To be honest this is kind of on track with what I was expecting.  A lot of damage has been done by crappy hollywood 3D, so the only way to undo it is with word of mouth in my opinion. It makes the most sense this way. I think the fact that around 50% of the total gross is doing quite well.

 

Honestly this will lower the opening weekend as you say Porthos, but I think this will work out so much better for legs.

Edited November 21, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

 

To be honest this is kind of on track with what I was expecting.  A lot of damage has been done by crappy hollywood 3D, so the only way to undo it is with word of mouth in my opinion. It makes the most sense this way. I think the fact that around 50% of the total gross is doing quite well.

 

Honestly this will lower the opening weekend as you say Porthos, but I think this will work out so much better for legs.

 

While I largely agree with the overall point, I wouldn't read too much in to the (first half of the) first day percentages as they haven't settled down yet plus there will be a many more showtimes added between now and then which won't be PLF.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

While I largely agree with the overall point, I wouldn't read too much in to the (first half of the) first day percentages as they haven't settled down yet plus there will be a many more showtimes added between now and then which won't be PLF.

roger that

How will we be able to pin point exactly when word of mouth hits through numbers 🕵️‍♂️
it might be before sunday i reckon

 

 

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

roger that

How will we be able to pin point exactly when word of mouth hits through numbers 🕵️‍♂️
it might be before sunday i reckon

 

 

 

Yeah, WOM is more a post-release thing (though there are rare exceptions when there are fan screenings ala Let There Be Carnage). 

 

Can see ticket increases through buzz boosts due to things like social media embargo lift as well as review drops plus other things.

[IronJimbo]

27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Yeah, WOM is more a post-release thing (though there are rare exceptions when there are fan screenings ala Let There Be Carnage). 

 

Can see ticket increases through buzz boosts due to things like social media embargo lift as well as review drops plus other things.

ok that's good. Anything that relies on the strength on the film is a good film. We're confident in that 😎

Hello movie fans!

 

 

Edited November 21, 2022 by IronJimbo

[el sid]

Unfortunately none of the counted films have convincing presales in my theaters at the moment.

Devotion had today 19 sold tickets for Thursday

and 49 sold tickets for Friday (both times in 6 theaters).
Comp: Midway finally had 300 and 361 sold tickets (= counted on Thursday for Thursday respectively Friday).

Bones and All had 17 sold tickets for Thursday

and 25 sold tickets for Friday (with showtimes in 5 and 6 theaters).
Comps (both counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday and Friday): Crawdads had 122 sold tickets for Thursday and 87 sold tickets for Friday

and The Invitation had 96 respectively 87 sold tickets.
Last Night in Soho had on Monday for Friday 126 sold tickets.

And Umma had on Monday for Friday 29 sold tickets (in only 4 theaters).

The Fabelmans had today 67 sold tickets for Thursday (with showtimes in only 3 theaters - therefore the presale number isn't bad)

and 55 sold tickets (again in only 3 theaters) for Friday.
Comps: House of Gucci had on Monday for Wednesday 414 sold tickets

and Respect had 129 sold tickets on Wednesday for Friday.

 

Strange World, counted today at 10am EST for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 14 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 14 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): no showtimes so far
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 26 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 34 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 88.

Comp: Dolittle had also on Monday for Thursday 156 sold tickets in 6 theaters (no showtimes in the AMC Fresh Meadows).
 

Strange World, counted today at 10am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 15 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 19 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): no showtimes so far
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 34 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): no showtimes so far

Total tickets sold in 5 theaters: 72.

Comps (all counted on Monday for Friday): Sonic 2 had 791 sold tickets in 7 theaters,

Dolittle had 143 sold tickets (again without the AMC in NY)

and JC had 357 sold tickets in 7 theaters.

 

As I said much room for improvement for all films in the next few days.

[XXR & Friends]

I wonder if Rise or Gru might be a decent comp for A2? 🧐

[Porthos]

48 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

I wonder if Rise or Gru might be a decent comp for A2? 🧐

 

Minions 2 I actually think might be a good comp due to the insanely backloaded nature of it.  Was already thinking about mentioning this before you brought it up.

 

Problem here is, A2 at first glance seems to have enough initial first sales to make most family films a bad comp (as most family films don't have any real sort of fan rush) but not enough initial sales to break into the upper end Marvel/SW tier.

 

EDITED AFTER CHECKING

 

Minions 2 sold 68 tickets locally its first day, so, no not that good of a comp at all.  Not until the final couple of days at least.  Then we might be talking

 

ORIGINAL POST CONTINUES

 

It, and again this is tea leaf reading from one third of one day, looks to be in that F9/JWD tier which are more backloaded but still have a strong initial spike.

 

(will also note that Sacto is gonna get a good post-trailer sample as it'll land here about 6:30-7:00pm local time, which will leave a good amount of prime buying time before this town turns off the lights)

Edited November 21, 2022 by Porthos

[ThomasNicole]

Anything around TGM and JW first day would be great imo and bodes well for +150M OW

[YM!]

What’s Strange World tracking like?

[excel1]

3D will be enormous. Avatar 2009 would have have grossed 1/4th of what it actually did if it didn't have 3D. No joke. Not only does it miss out on all the surcharges, but it misses out on tons of moviegoers in general.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 I actually think might be a good comp due to the insanely backloaded nature of it.  Was already thinking about mentioning this before you brought it up.

 

Problem here is, A2 at first glance seems to have enough initial first sales to make most family films a bad comp (as most family films don't have any real sort of fan rush) but not enough initial sales to break into the upper end Marvel/SW tier.

 

It, and again this is tea leaf reading from one third of one day, looks to be in that F9/JWD tier which are more backloaded but still have a strong initial spike.

 

(will also note that Sacto is gonna get a good post-trailer sample as it'll land here about 6:30-7:00pm local time, which will leave a good amount of prime buying time before this town turns off the lights)

I don't see how Minions 2 is a good comp. There are almost no similarities with either genre or expected audience. TGM/JWD are the ones to go with, I think (F9 is again a different case, and the market conditions were also weird then). 

[Maggie]

I wonder who's gonna brave enough to post their first projections