The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

20 minutes ago, M37 said:

The only somewhat close comp below the expected value is Venom 2 ... but lol, no, we don't use that one for anything. My general thoughts on comps:

• 1. BPWF - think it may track this one pretty closely, though perhaps a bit too low to start/early period
• 2. A2 - going to be too high to start, then fall back, but AMWQ should outpace in the final week, plus PLF/3D skew/limited capacity may throw it off
• 3. MoM - Won't track the same, so numbers will be too low and bounce around, but converge in final week
• 4. Thor 4 - might be fine-ish until the final week, but the July 4th effect will skew the relative trajectories
• 5. Batman - had a soft start/strong finish, so early numbers will be too low. Also not MCU, plus had EA, and atypical market distribution can all skew comps

Not really going to pay much attention to comp values until T-21 (or even T-17), see how they stack up at that checkpoint, but early tea leaf reading on sales has me in ~$20M range or so. With that said, this first day may be influenced by the NFL audience/announcement, catching more of the M 18-35 early buyers right from the jump rather than over a few days, and may come down a bit over the first full week

I don't think it was too skewed by the NFL announcement. Took a few runs in Harkins in the early going and it was big right out of the gate, NFL seemed to provide only a minor boost.

[keysersoze123]

Terrific OD sales for Ant-man. 100m+ OW confirmed. 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

MTC1 Previews -  62890/853293 1174582.44 4501 shows

MTC2 Previews - 35052/625409 522613.81 4043 shows

 

I think 20m+ previews is on cards with this start. Let us see how things go after few days. Only MCU movie which did not do that after a good start with Eternals. Otherwise they have had a consistent pattern. 

[M37]

5 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

The world carpet premiere was said to be 13th February a couple of months ago. Have tried to find an update on that but nothing. If true then reactions will be very late compared Wakanda Forever and Thor.

 A quick googling gives the same date (but all old reports, so may have/will change). So the final week of sales includes:

 

Sun 2/12 = Super Bowl 

Mon 2/13 = premiere/reactions 

Tue 2/14 = Valentine’s Day 

Also review drop, not sure if they’ll do it on Tue because of V-Day, but certainly in that week 

 

Trying to decipher those daily sales before T-1 😂

 

 

 

[GOGODanca]

18 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

The world carpet premiere was said to be 13th February a couple of months ago. Have tried to find a update on that but nothing. If true then reactions will be very late compared Wakanda Forever and Thor.

https://www.averagesocialite.com/la-events/2023/2/13/ant-man-and-the-wasp-quantumania-premiere-la

[Inceptionzq]

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Megaplex

 

T-30 Thursday(118 showings): 1026/34617

0.955x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (16.24M)

1.03x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (28.64M)

0.392x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (11.36M)

0.239x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (8.60M)

0.348x Batman 24 hours (7.52M)

 

T-31 Friday(178 showings): 364/53295

0.443x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (16.04M)

0.784x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (44.13M)

0.306x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (12.41M)

0.211x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (11.52M)

0.448x Batman 24 hours (15.67M)

 

T-32 Saturday(179 showings): 341/53862

0.413x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (18.31M)

1.84x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (103.28M)

0.688x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (28.97M)

0.456x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (26.35M)

0.955x Batman 24 hours (41.32M)

 

T-33 Sunday(172 showings): 59/51068

0.251x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (9.18M)

1.97x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (80.61M)

0.371x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (12.06M)

0.447x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (17.38M)

1.26x Batman 24 hours (42.86M)

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-17	Jax	4	12	2	7	1,632	0.43%
		Phx	5	14	0	6	1,514	0.40%
		Ral	7	21	0	4	1,839	0.22%
	Total		16	47	2	17	4,985	0.34%
Brady (1/28)	T-12	Jax	2	2	5	9	365	2.47%
	Total		2	2	5	9	365	2.47%
Brady (1/31)	T-15	Jax	3	3	0	3	446	0.67%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	139	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	3	691	0.43%
Brady (2/1)	T-16	Jax	3	3	0	0	446	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	73	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	0	625	0.00%
Knock at Cabin	T-17	Jax	5	16	1	22	2,739	0.80%
		Phx	4	10	2	17	1,554	1.09%
		Ral	6	16	0	22	2,470	0.89%
	Total		15	42	3	61	6,763	0.90%
Left Behind	T-10	Jax	4	4	6	40	453	8.83%
		Phx	5	5	9	41	830	4.94%
		Ral	5	5	6	49	530	9.25%
	Total		14	14	21	130	1,813	7.17%
Missing	T-3	Jax	5	19	1	16	1,590	1.01%
		Phx	4	9	1	14	1,687	0.83%
		Ral	3	7	4	8	739	1.08%
	Total		12	35	6	38	4,016	0.95%
Slime	T-3	Jax	5	11	7	31	1,092	2.84%
		Phx	4	6	2	22	892	2.47%
		Ral	6	11	3	23	1,593	1.44%
	Total		15	28	12	76	3,577	2.12%

 

Missing T-3 comps

 - Crawdads - .087x (174k)

 - Bullet Train - .088x (293k)

 - Lost City - .139x (348k)

 - Old - .38x (570k)

 - Fabelmans - 1.73x (689k)

 

Slime T-3 comps

 - JJK - .063x (181k)

 - DBZ - .067x (290k)

 - One Piece - .125x (212k)

 

Left Behind T-10 comps

 - I Heard the Bells - .359x (277k)

 

80 for Brady T-17 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.417x (708k)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-17 comps

 - Nope - .219x (1.4m)

 - M3GAN - 2.103x (5.78m)

 

11 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-31	Jax	6	91	297	297	15,860	1.87%
		Phx	6	85	278	278	15,027	1.85%
		Ral	5	69	207	207	9,525	2.17%
	Total		17	245	782	782	40,412	1.94%

It's only been two hours, but here are comps against first 24 hours

 

NWH - .05x (2.5m)

Black Widow - 1.456x (19.22m)

Dr Strange 2 - .13x (4.69m)

Thor 4 - .23x (6.72m)

Eternals - 1.02x (9.74m)

BP2 - .322x (9.025m)

 

Excellent start!

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-16	Jax	4	12	0	7	1,632	0.43%
		Phx	5	14	1	7	1,514	0.46%
		Ral	7	21	6	10	1,839	0.54%
	Total		16	47	7	24	4,985	0.48%
Ant-Man 3	T-30	Jax	6	91	191	488	15,860	3.08%
		Phx	6	85	201	479	15,027	3.19%
		Ral	7	86	219	426	11,228	3.79%
	Total		19	262	611	1,393	42,115	3.31%
Brady (1/28)	T-11	Jax	2	2	2	11	365	3.01%
	Total		2	2	2	11	365	3.01%
Brady (1/31)	T-14	Jax	3	3	5	8	446	1.79%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	139	0.00%
	Total		5	5	5	8	691	1.16%
Brady (2/1)	T-15	Jax	3	3	0	0	446	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	73	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	0	625	0.00%
Knock at Cabin	T-16	Jax	5	16	10	32	2,739	1.17%
		Phx	4	10	2	19	1,554	1.22%
		Ral	6	16	4	26	2,470	1.05%
	Total		15	42	16	77	6,763	1.14%
Left Behind	T-9	Jax	4	4	0	40	453	8.83%
		Phx	5	5	3	44	830	5.30%
		Ral	5	5	4	53	530	10.00%
	Total		14	14	7	137	1,813	7.56%
Missing	T-2	Jax	5	19	9	25	1,590	1.57%
		Phx	4	9	4	18	1,687	1.07%
		Ral	3	6	10	18	648	2.78%
	Total		12	34	23	61	3,925	1.55%
Slime	T-2	Jax	5	11	5	36	1,092	3.30%
		Phx	4	6	3	25	892	2.80%
		Ral	6	11	6	29	1,593	1.82%
	Total		15	28	14	90	3,577	2.52%

 

Missing T-2 comps

 - Crawdads - .107x (215k)

 - Bullet Train - .116x (389k)

 - Lost City - .175x (437k)

 - Old - .462x (693k)

 - Fabelmans - 1.79x (716k)

 

Slime T-2 comps

 - JJK - .067x (192k)

 - DBZ - .073x (314k)

 - One Piece - .129x (219k)

 

Left Behind T-9 comps

 - I Heard the Bells - .375x (290k)

 

80 for Brady T-16 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2x (1m)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-16 comps

 - Nope - .264x (1.688m)

 - M3GAN - 2.655x (7.3m)

 - Black Phone - 1.116x (2.9m)

 

Ant-Man 3 comps (against 24hr sales)

 

 - NWH - .089x (4.47m)

 - Black Widow - 2.594x (34.24m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .232x (8.35m)

 - Thor 4 - .413x (11.97m)

 - Eternals - 1.826x (17.34m)

 - BP2 - .459x (12.855m)

 - Avatar 2 - 1.424x (24.21m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.402x (21.24m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.338x (25.83m)

 - JW3 - 1.401x (25.23m)

 

Here's a breakdown of the sales by format.

Movie	Type	Tickets	Sales	ATP
Ant-Man 3	BigD	104	$1,601.09	15.40
	D-Box	33	$836.03	25.33
	Dolby	348	$6,177.80	17.75
	IMAX	125	$2,308.04	18.46
	RealD 3D	142	$2,360.15	16.62
	RPX	5	$81.10	16.22
	Standard	499	$6,261.21	12.55
	XD	137	$2,297.81	16.77
Ant-Man 3 Total		1,393	$21,923.23	15.74

[thajdikt]

19 minutes ago, M37 said:

 A quick googling gives the same date (but all old reports, so may have/will change). So the final week of sales includes:

 

Sun 2/12 = Super Bowl 

Mon 2/13 = premiere/reactions 

Tue 2/14 = Valentine’s Day 

Also review drop, not sure if they’ll do it on Tue because of V-Day, but certainly in that week 

 

Trying to decipher those daily sales before T-1 😂

 

 

 

 

I´m surprised that the premiere is so late. Marvel premieres is usually about 2-weeks before good or bad. The only exceptions are those spoiler heavy filled movies but I don´t really think this movie falls under that category.

[Inceptionzq]

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse

 

T-30 Thursday(232 showings): 3604/33788

2.36x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (40.18M)

0.563x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (15.77M)

0.437x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (12.67M)

0.330x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (11.87M)

0.617x Batman Thurs only 24 hours (10.86M)

 

T-31 Friday(328 showings): 1833/48157

1.01x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (36.56M)

0.373x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (21.02M)

0.327x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (13.26M)

0.249x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (13.61M)

0.353x Batman 24 hours (12.36M)

 

T-32 Saturday(335 showings): 1537/49193

0.776x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (34.41M)

0.299x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (16.80M)

0.321x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (13.51M)

0.234x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (13.54M)

0.379x Batman 24 hours (16.39M)

 

T-33 Sunday(306 showings): 435/45387

0.530x Avatar TWOW 13.5 hours (19.40M)

0.336x Black Panther WF 11.5 hours (13.77M)

0.185x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (6.01M)

0.191x Doctor Strange MoM 11.5 hours (7.41M)

0.295x Batman 24 hours (10.06M)

 

[M37]

12 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I don't think it was too skewed by the NFL announcement. Took a few runs in Harkins in the early going and it was big right out of the gate, NFL seemed to provide only a minor boost.

Fair enough, though I do think as @Porthos noted, the debut hit right at what is normally the prime buying time for the expected demo, particularly in the Mountain and West time zone samples

 

Plenty of data in hand to suggest $20M+ Thursday, just think there are reasons to be cautious that range holds vs slides back over time. But certainly expectations for a $100M+ 3-day, even something like $18M/>5.5x - are pretty reasonable at present

 

I just remember being fairly surprised that Ant-Man & Wasp in July 2018 had a lower IM than Homecoming on that same week in 2017. That this character might be a bit more fan-heavy (and so frontloaded) than might be expected for a Tier 3 MCU title, more similar to the Tier 2 sub-franchises, and the ticket sales pattern may track closer to the big boys like Thor and Strange despite the lower expected value, especially with the introduction of Kang making it more of a "must-see" within the broader MCU story

[Liiviig 1998]

Why are we using A2 comp for quantumania? Just asking.

[M37]

3 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Why are we using A2 comp for quantumania? Just asking.

Mainly because its the only preview that was between $12 and $18M* over the last year and a half, and it did mostly finish like a CBM, with high initial pre-sales and lower growth rate down the stretch

 

*Even the ones close to that range are poor comp: extremely late bloomers Minions 2, Venom on the low end, and way too walk-up-heavy JWD, and TGM & Batman, which both had EA shows. Really kind of a dead zone for tracking between the top tier and those way below it for this type of movie, so Avatwo gives some reasonable middle ground

[Tinalera]

And THERES the Quantumania for Cineplex...

 

Off to work I go....

[Deep Wang]

I think it's obvious this is getting a boost from Sharkboy and Lavagirl nostalgia.

[Joyous Legion]

18 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

I think it's obvious this is getting a boost from Sharkboy and Lavagirl nostalgia.

 

Whatever It Takes Captain America GIFfrom Whatever It Takes GIFs

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

I think it's obvious this is getting a boost from Sharkboy and Lavagirl nostalgia.

mystery solved.

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Terrific OD sales for Ant-man. 100m+ OW confirmed. 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

MTC1 Previews -  62890/853293 1174582.44 4501 shows

MTC2 Previews - 35052/625409 522613.81 4043 shows

 

I think 20m+ previews is on cards with this start. Let us see how things go after few days. Only MCU movie which did not do that after a good start with Eternals. Otherwise they have had a consistent pattern. 

Will a ~24 hr check be possible from you or @ZackM? We can extrapolate around it okay enough but would be great to have on hand directly.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Will a ~24 hr check be possible from you or @ZackM? We can extrapolate around it okay enough but would be great to have on hand directly.

Not possible for MTC2 but around ball park for 24 hours is possible for MTC1. what time is that?

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Not possible for MTC2 but around ball park for 24 hours is possible for MTC1. what time is that?

7PM CST

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

7PM CST

Ok. Will check around that time. Anyway OD presales among hardcore fans tend to be start a furious pace and then settle down. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-30	Ant-Man 3	3D	22	69	69	2,359	2.92%	$16.32	$1,126.31
		PLF	35	1,118	1,118	7,749	14.43%	$16.72	$18,697.99
		Standard	77	412	412	10,075	4.09%	$12.72	$5,240.32
	Total		134	1,599	1,599	20,183	7.92%	$15.68	$25,064.62

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-30	Ant-Man 3	N	99	1,487	1,487	14,807	10.04%	$15.97	$23,741.28
		Y	35	112	112	5,376	2.08%	$11.82	$1,323.34
	Total		134	1,599	1,599	20,183	7.92%	$15.68	$25,064.62

 

This is about 15 hours of sales.

 

Comps

 - NWH (15hr) - .134x (6.7m)

 - Batman (19hr) - .703x (14.76m)

 - Thor 4 (26hr) - .444x (12.88m)

 - DS2 (50hr) - .219x (7.9m)

 - BP2 (26hr) - .669x (18.73m)

 - Avatar 2 (24hr) - 2.066x (35.12m)