The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric is Anxious]

23 hours ago, Eric is Missing said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-29 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	2770	31384	8.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 204

 

Comp - First Three Days of Sales

2.621x of Black Widow (34.59M)

3.341x of Shang-Chi (29.4M)

2.767x of Eternals (26.29M)

0.208x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (10.38M)

0.656x of The Batman (14.18M)

0.379x of Doctor Strange 2 (13.66M)

0.657x of Thor: Love and Thunder (19.04M)

0.664x of Black Panther 2 (18.6M)

2.287x of Avatar 2 (38.88M)

 

Comp - T-29

0.449x of Doctor Strange 2 (16.18M)

0.552x of Black Panther 2 (15.46M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	2927	31384	9.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 157

 

Comp - T-28

0.425x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.29M)

0.573x of Black Panther 2 (16.03M)

[M37]

38 minutes ago, datpepper said:

A note about the Regal news:

 

That report about closing theaters is coming from Business Insider, who one of my sources is claiming might have swindled that scoop out from another source on the Regal Unlimited sub-Reddit, and is misreporting these potential closures as certainties.

 

Multiple locations that had leases rejected earlier in the same manner remain open. I even mentioned one either on this forum or on the group chat, Regal E-Walk, which was similarly listed as having its lease rejected before it was re-negotiated. Leases set to be rejected, and even ones that end up reaching rejection, can still be re-negotiated. The BI article even mentions: “The debtors are hopeful that these negotiations will lead to lease concessions and modifications that will obviate the need for rejection"

To follow up on this, looking at the some of the locations on that list - Union Square and South Beach in particular - make me dubious it’s going to result in 100% closures, though I think some are in jeopardy. I also don’t think it’s an accident that a high number of CA, NY and FL locations (plus AK and DC) - all of which have seen significant property rental rate increases - are on it

 

The reality is that it’s very difficult because of the layout to repurpose theater for some other business - as compared to say flipping a big box/grocery store - so unless the property owner has another potential leasee lined up, the location is sold to another MTC, or a potential buyer is interested with zoning flexibility to use for some other purpose, it’s in their best interest to keep the doors open. Lease rejection is in many cases just a bargaining tactic for a lower rental rate

[misterpepp]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Ant-Man, Schmant-Man. @datpepper any idea when we can expect tickets to go on sale for our REAL box office savior?

 

I need to check around, but I don't think there's a date yet.

 

The wait is un-bear-able, I know.

[Alex SciChannel]

2 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Yeah this is the 2nd round of regal closure "news" and most locations from the earlier one remain open. It's not false per se but it's usually maybes where the maybe part gets lost in a game of media telephone.

 

 

Do we know which of those 39 theaters are to remain open? Because Regal Beaver Creek Stadium 12 is on that list and it's my childhood theater. It also got a recent renovation in the past 2 years which included ScreenX and 4DX auditoriums. So it would be odd for them to close now

[Joyous Legion]

10 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Do we know which of those 39 theaters are to remain open? Because Regal Beaver Creek Stadium 12 is on that list and it's my childhood theater. It also got a recent renovation in the past 2 years which included ScreenX and 4DX auditoriums. So it would be odd for them to close now

I mean, you don't know until you know. Not very helpful but that's the dynamic at the end of the day.

 

As Datpepper and m37 have also said just recently, leases being rejectied is often just a part of the renegotiation process rather than a sign of imminent true closure... but if renegotiation attempts fail too much, eventually the rejection as a maneuver becomes actually losing the property. It may depend a lot on whether there are any other businesses that think they can turn a big profit on the same land which is a murky thing to predict.

Edited January 20, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[Porthos]

On 1/18/2023 at 11:48 PM, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	231	29307	32365	3058	9.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

257

 

Day 3 Comps

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	39.09		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	14.48%		14.07m
TG:M	133.01		390	2299		0/257	33923/36222	6.35%		11474	26.65%		26.28m
L&T	60.43		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	18.03%		17.53m
BP2	76.13		294	4017		0/292	32534/36551	10.99%		16800	18.20%		21.32m
A2	164.32		172	1861		0/142	19477/21338	8.72%		8986	34.03%		27.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        561/12953  [4.33% sold]
Matinee:        72/1800  [4.00% | 2.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:              294/6479  [4.54% | 9.61% of all tickets sold]

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	231	29080	32365	3285	10.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

227

 

Day 4 Comps

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	40.52		285	8107		0/329	32809/40916	19.81%		21117	15.56%		14.59m
TG:M	126.10		306	2605		0/257	33617/36222	7.19%		11474	28.63%		24.92m
L&T	62.09		231	5291		0/228	26309/31600	16.74%		16962	19.37%		18.01m
BP2	78.03		193	4210		0/294	32812/37022	11.37%		16800	19.55%		21.85m
A2	161.82		169	2030		0/142	19308/21338	9.51%		8986	36.56%		27.51m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-28 Comps

	%		Sold T-28	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.37		654	7403		0/329	33513/40916	18.09%		21117	15.56%		15.97m
BP2	62.22		139	5280		1/294	31742/37022	14.26%		16800	19.55%		17.42m

 

Regal:        561/12953  [4.33% sold]
Matinee:        72/1800  [4.00% | 2.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:              294/6479  [4.54% | 9.61% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Switching to T-x comps exclusively tomorrow, but I wanted one more day of initial sale data as I think it's still somewhat in the early growth stage (for Marvel films at least) and thus worth a look at the comparative daily sales.

Edited January 20, 2023 by Porthos

[thajdikt]

"Based on independent sampling, Quantumania is currently generating around 76 percent of total opening day (Thursday previews and true Friday combined) pre-sales from Thursday by itself, relative to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s 66 percent and Doctor Strange In the Multiverse of Madness‘s 61 percent Thursday share at the same point in time after sales began." - Box office pro

 

Long Range Forecast is 96M-131m

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-ant-man-and-the-wasp-quantumania-tracking-for-marvel-sub-franchises-best-start-yet-can-it-become-2023s-first-100m-opener/

[Shawn Robbins]

9 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

I am, actually. And I don't appreciate the tone of that 2nd paragraph when we are just disagreeing about numbericsl analysis without anything even resembling bad behavior.  

 

As my final word I would say -- to the extent there are parts of your model which suggest 16 is even remotely plausible, you could probably improve your accuracy for this movie by further downweighting those components. But I don't expect you to do so so we can just wait for the proof in the pudding

If you don't appreciate the tone, then don't incur it with undue condescension, which you've now done twice in this conversation alone and several times in the past.

 

Lastly, at what point did I call it "my model"? This is the fundamental difference in what I'm talking about versus what you're saying: I'm defending the considerations of multiple people and their models, a few of which don't post in here often or at all, even if I might not entirely agree with all of them. I even defended what appears to be your number before you even replied to my comments.

 

Do not put words into my mouth or make assumptions. You're entirely dismissing information just because you don't personally agree with it, not because of any mathematical proof.

 

You're a solid predictor. Be a team player, though. "Numerical analysis" -- and life, frankly -- isn't complete without it, as many other people in this thread so often prove. Follow their lead.

 

If you want to reply further, private message me, but I've said all I have to say. This is the end of the exchange here.

 

 

[XXR & Friends]

2 hours ago, thajdikt said:

Long Range Forecast is 96M-131m

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-ant-man-and-the-wasp-quantumania-tracking-for-marvel-sub-franchises-best-start-yet-can-it-become-2023s-first-100m-opener/

@Shawn I need you to bump the high end up by about $3M because….

 

 

[M37]

10 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

No, making reasonable projections is not how expectations get out of hand, to be honest.

But it’s not!

 

But there is!

I am keeping perspective 🤷‍♂️ 
 

Bullish predictions would be like 28. I have often emphasized the bearish side (22ish)
 

 

The process you used to reach that conclusion is sound, and the Thursday projection from data in hand is entirely reasonable. But I think what people like myself and Shawn are pushing back on is the certainty of that output

 

Just step back for a minute and look at the data set being used:

• NWH ($50M) - very high, short window
• MoM ($36M) - high value, post NWH
• Thor ($29M) - summer sales/July Thursday
• BPWF ($28M) - low start, pre-Vet day Thur, demo skew
• Avatwo ($17M) - not really a CBM, low start
• Eternals ($9.5) - poor reception
• Shang-Chi ($8.8) - low start (COVID), short sales window
• I'm not even including BW because of the ongoing pandemic

So you either have to include values that are likely to have a deflated OD number for one reason or another (inflating the ratio & output), or start excluding them and adding more uncertainty by lowering the N. And there is always the possibility that this data point will itself be an outlier for reasons we can only truly evaluate after the result. Don't think its unreasonable to envision a scenario where the introduction of Kang pushes up the fan rush (OD sales), but lower baseline appeal of Ant-Man and general meh quality of this phase holds back the GA, at least from Thursday, and it IMs/legs out better.

 

Also don't think we should discount the walk-up factor, where BPWF and especially Thor had higher potential audience on their Thursdays due to the opening date, whereas AMWQ is debuting on a "normal" Thursday with a holiday weekend ahead of it, potentially helping to spread business over the 4.5 days. Extrapolating to end point presumes "all things being equal" ... and they're just not. A Thursday in the teens is a lower probability result, but its still within possible (10-15%?) output, not extremely unlikely <2% range, even if the distribution overall skews higher [fwiw, I think there's counterintuitively less uncertainty in the weekend value, as a higher Thursday probably lowers the IM, shrinking +/- % of the range]

 

What keeps me interested in tracking is trying to find the signal amongst the noise, to uncover patterns on which we are literately able to predict future collective human behavior ... but that process is by default messy and carries with it some inherent uncertainty (otherwise it would get boring pretty quickly). And because of market changes post-pandemic, pretty much all data from before times had to be scrapped and restarted from scratch, so the data set is still limited and often skewed, even for something as generally consistent as the MCU.

 

tl;dr - the process is good, output isn't disputed, just needs larger error bars

[Menor the Destroyer]

Quantumania Marcus T-29 (from last night):

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 880

Seats Sold: 5682/146333

 

0.59x Wakanda Forever day 4 (33m)

 

Was gonna take Thursday to check the pace, but accidentally input the wrong date  and took Friday instead. So might as well just post it. It looks solid to me. Obviously not at WF level which had Friday 2x Thursday, but if I had to guess it will be less Thursday skewed than Thor (I don't have Friday data until T-15 for that however). 

Edited January 20, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 1/13/2023 at 10:04 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Avatar 2	3,317	66,031	-24.53%	33,096	523.89	32,935	3,093	28,604
M3GAN	3,142	55,655	-15.21%	54,977	408.78	678	0	0
A Man Called Otto	3,181	46,965	428.29%	46,874	472.71	91	0	0
Puss in Boots 2	3,150	43,232	-22.98%	42,750	241.23	482	0	404
Plane	2,692	39,949		38,431		1,518	0	0
House Party	1,323	22,290		22,146		144	0	0
The Whale	1,347	14,851	68.30%	14,828	174.66	23	0	0
Black Panther 2	1,716	14,611	-26.33%	14,575	177.67	36	0	25
The Devil Conspiracy	917	12,610		12,610		0	0	0
I Wanna Dance	1,720	11,571	-57.67%	11,563	88.37	8	0	0
Skinamarink	664	3,715		3,709		6	0	0
The Fabelmans	669	3,468	-48.89%	3,459	86.96	9	0	0
The Woman King	794	3,280		3,280		0	0	0
Babylon	591	2,982	-80.85%	2,976	91.16	6	0	0
Thunivu	368	2,507		2,507		0	0	0
Waltair Veerayya	334	2,296		2,251		45	0	0
Veera Simha Reddy	321	2,099		2,096		3	0	0
Strange World	419	1,953	-6.20%	1,950	102.94	3	0	3
Violent Night	307	1,828	-87.77%	1,828	47.29	0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 1/13 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Plane (1/11 EA) - 304 (304 TC)

Plane - 39,949 (2,692 TC)

 - CopShop - 37,892 (2,641)

 - King Richard - 38,074 (2,890)

 - Matrix 4 - 38,807 (3,054)

 - The Northman - 40,906 (2,890)

A Man Called Otto - 46,965 (3,181 TC)

 - Dog - 48,752 (3,099)

 - Bones and All - 45,531 (2,384)

 - Bros - 46,647 (2,995)

House Party - 22,290 (1,323 TC)

 - She Said - 21,138 (1,813)

 - Mack and Rita - 24,728 (1,686)

 - Infinite Storm - 19,579 (1,481)

The Devil Conspiracy - 12,610 (917 TC)

 - Armageddon Time - 12,340 (945)

 - Breaking - 12,196 (891)

 - Wolf and the Lamb - 12,069 (938)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Missing - 20,308 (1,615 TC)

 - Plane - 18,804 (1,527)

 - Blacklight - 19,740 (1,627)

 - The Invitation - 21,624 (1,619)

That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime The Movie: Scarlet Bond - 13,804 (1,302 TC)

 - Studio 666 - 13,939 (1,254)

 - Bodies Bodies Bodies - 13,255 (917)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist - 1,256 (1,245 TC)

 - Ambulance - 1,183 (671)

 - I Heard the Bells - 976 (1,097)

Infinity Pool - 1,046 (727 TC)

 - Antlers - 1,045 (644)

 - Otto - 1,066 (346)

 - Nightmare Alley - 980 (567)

Fear - 831 (453 TC)

 - Vengeance - 838 (455)

 - Bodies Bodies Bodies - 881 (495)

 - Terrifier 2 - 847 (658)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

80 for Brady (1/28) - 222 (221)

80 for Brady (1/31) - 402 (399)

80 for Brady (2/1) - 404 (404)

80 for Brady - 3,779 (1,353 TC)

 - M3GAN - 3,980 (1,646)

 - Scream - 3,888 (1,802)

Knock at the Cabin - 4,231 (1,812 TC)

 - Black Phone - 4,270 (1,705)

 - Elvis - 4,418 (1,813)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Avatar 2	3,080	56,500	-14.43%	27,112	497.11	29,388	2,971	24,992
M3GAN	3,017	45,100	-18.97%	44,498	328.92	602	0	0
Missing	2,597	44,142		42,656		1,486	0	0
Puss in Boots 2	3,024	40,494	-6.33%	40,094	334.63	400	0	302
A Man Called Otto	3,055	37,322	-7.06%	37,240	273.16	82	0	0
Plane	2,631	31,874	-10.85%	31,687	256.96	187	0	0
Slime The Movie	1,422	16,344		16,291		53	0	0
House Party	1,314	16,329	-15.73%	16,317	178.82	12	0	0
The Whale	1,384	11,549	-22.23%	11,532	97.64	17	0	0
Black Panther 2	1,380	10,650	-27.11%	10,627	168.73	23	0	23
The Fabelmans	850	5,156	48.67%	5,139	156.86	17	0	0
The Son	477	5,138		5,138		0	0	0
I Wanna Dance	971	5,103	-55.90%	5,103	100.59	0	0	0
Skinamarink	784	4,509	33.52%	4,509	220.44	0	0	0
Saving the World	400	2,650		2,646		4	0	0
The Devil Conspiracy	443	2,455	-77.03%	2,455	34.87	0	0	0
Smallfoot	362	1,297		1,297		0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 1/13 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Missing - 44,142 (2,597 TC)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 43,638 (2,644)

 - Bones and All - 45,531 (2,384)

 - The Invitation - 43,127 (2,655)

That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime The Movie: Scarlet Bond - 16,344 (1,422 TC)

 - Zola - 16,722 (1,379)

 - Belle - 16,995 (1,313)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist - 5,344 (1,331 TC)

 - Lifemark - 6,046 (1,457)

 - I Heard the Bells - 4,407 (1,028)

Infinity Pool - 10,787 (932 TC)

 - The Cursed - 11,540 (959)

 - Till - 10,366 (932)

 - Infinite Storm - 10,576 (867)

Fear - 6,439 (542 TC)

 - Breaking - 6,778 (515)

 - Umma - 6,971 (506)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

80 for Brady (1/28) - 267 (267)

80 for Brady (1/31) - 526 (526)

80 for Brady (2/1) - 531 (531)

80 for Brady - 5,327 (1,950 TC)

 - I Wanna Dance - 5,579 (1,938)

 - Elvis - 5,527 (2,328)

Knock at the Cabin - 4,649 (1,980 TC)

 - Black Phone - 4,684 (1,873)

 - Crawdads - 5,157 (1,803)

 - M3GAN - 4,412 (1,837)

The Chosen Season 3 - 3,542 (1,663 TC)

 - Otto - 3,582 (1,324)

 - Violent Night - 3,755 (1,511)

BTS: Yet To Come in Cinemas (OD Wed) - 2,377 (1,030 TC)

The Amazing Maurice - 1,770 (618 TC)

 - Family Camp - 1,549 (532)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - 23,004 (2,545 TC)

 - Black Panther 2 - 28,743 (2,670)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - 26,823 (2,402)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 1/19/2023 at 9:27 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-14	Jax	5	15	3	10	1,926	0.52%
		Phx	5	14	1	9	1,514	0.59%
		Ral	7	21	4	17	1,839	0.92%
	Total		17	50	8	36	5,279	0.68%
Ant-Man 3	T-28	Jax	6	91	75	735	15,860	4.63%
		Phx	6	85	96	789	15,027	5.25%
		Ral	8	101	72	711	13,556	5.24%
	Total		20	277	243	2,235	44,443	5.03%
Brady (1/28)	T-9	Jax	2	2	0	16	365	4.38%
	Total		2	2	0	16	365	4.38%
Brady (1/31)	T-12	Jax	3	3	0	9	446	2.02%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	139	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	9	691	1.30%
Brady (2/1)	T-13	Jax	3	3	0	0	446	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	73	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	0	625	0.00%
Infinity Pool	T-7	Jax	4	5	3	14	445	3.15%
		Phx	5	6	0	2	517	0.39%
		Ral	4	5	1	9	496	1.81%
	Total		13	16	4	25	1,458	1.71%
Knock at Cabin	T-14	Jax	5	16	0	34	2,739	1.24%
		Phx	4	10	0	20	1,554	1.29%
		Ral	6	16	0	26	2,470	1.05%
	Total		15	42	0	80	6,763	1.18%
Left Behind	T-7	Jax	4	4	9	56	453	12.36%
		Phx	5	5	5	56	830	6.75%
		Ral	5	5	4	57	530	10.75%
	Total		14	14	18	169	1,813	9.32%
Missing	T-0	Jax	5	22	18	53	1,915	2.77%
		Phx	6	16	14	35	2,241	1.56%
		Ral	5	14	11	34	2,142	1.59%
	Total		16	52	43	122	6,298	1.94%
Slime	T-0	Jax	5	12	6	61	1,142	5.34%
		Phx	6	10	3	33	1,222	2.70%
		Ral	6	11	10	42	1,593	2.64%
	Total		17	33	19	136	3,957	3.44%

 

Missing T-0 comps

 - Crawdads - .126x (253k)

 - Bullet Train - .117x (391k)

 - Lost City - .178x (445k)

 - Old - .372x (558k)

 - Fabelmans - 1.54x (616k)

 

Slime T-0 comps

 - JJK - .078x (224k)

 - DBZ - .074x (319k)

 - One Piece - .146x (248k)

 

Left Behind T-7 comps

 - I Heard the Bells - missed

 

Infinity Pool T-7 comps

 - The Night House - 2.083x (542k)

 - Black Phone - .212x (551k)

 

80 for Brady T-14 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.273x (1.64m)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-14 comps

 - Nope - .248x (1.59m)

 - M3GAN - 2.667x (7.33m)

 - Black Phone - 1.096x (2.85m)

 - Halloween Ends - missed

 

Ant-Man 3 T-28 comps

 - Dr Strange 2 - .372x (13.4m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
80 for Brady	T-13	Jax	5	15	3	13	1,926	0.67%
		Phx	5	14	1	10	1,514	0.66%
		Ral	7	21	10	27	1,839	1.47%
	Total		17	50	14	50	5,279	0.95%
Ant-Man 3	T-27	Jax	6	91	57	792	15,860	4.99%
		Phx	6	85	61	850	15,027	5.66%
		Ral	8	102	48	759	13,657	5.56%
	Total		20	278	166	2,401	44,544	5.39%
Brady (1/28)	T-8	Jax	2	2	0	16	365	4.38%
	Total		2	2	0	16	365	4.38%
Brady (1/31)	T-11	Jax	3	3	0	9	446	2.02%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	139	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	9	691	1.30%
Brady (2/1)	T-12	Jax	3	3	0	0	446	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	106	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	73	0.00%
	Total		5	5	0	0	625	0.00%
Infinity Pool	T-6	Jax	4	5	1	15	445	3.37%
		Phx	5	6	4	6	517	1.16%
		Ral	4	4	0	9	452	1.99%
	Total		13	15	5	30	1,414	2.12%
Knock at Cabin	T-13	Jax	5	16	0	34	2,739	1.24%
		Phx	4	10	0	20	1,554	1.29%
		Ral	6	16	0	26	2,470	1.05%
	Total		15	42	0	80	6,763	1.18%
Left Behind	T-6	Jax	4	4	3	59	453	13.02%
		Phx	5	5	15	71	830	8.55%
		Ral	5	5	5	62	530	11.70%
	Total		14	14	23	192	1,813	10.59%

 

Left Behind T-6 comps

 - I Heard the Bells - missed

 

Infinity Pool T-6 comps

 - The Night House - 2.143x (557k)

 - Black Phone - .222x (578k)

 

80 for Brady T-13 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.571x (1.79m)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-13 comps

 - Nope - .229x (1.46m)

 - M3GAN - 2.424x (6.66m)

 - Black Phone - 1.013x (2.63m)

 - Halloween Ends - .324x (1.75m)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-27 comps

 - Black Widow - 4.47x (59.02m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .345x (12.42m)

[Eric is Anxious]

Quorum Updates

Alice, Darling T-1: 20.12% Awareness, 5.06 Interest

A Good Person T-64: 17.19%, 5.17

Heart of a Lion T-99: 14.64%, 5.16

Book Club 2: The Next Chapter T-113: 13.59%, 4.42

Dune: Part Two T-288: 27.27%, 5.11

 

Missing T-1: 31.81% Awareness, 5.8 Interest

Final Awareness: 38% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 72% chance of 10M

 

Jesus Revolution T-36: 14.42% Awareness, 4.76 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 32% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 36% chance of 5M, 14% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 33% chance of 5M, 17% chance of 10M

 

Cocaine Bear T-37: 29.93% Awareness, 5.8 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 55% chance of 10M, 22% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 70% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 70% chance of 5M, 40% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 67% chance of 5M, 33% chance of 10M

[misterpepp]

Magic Mike 3 tix 1/23, but in the afternoon? Source says 3pm EST for now, tentative.

 

Titanic re-release tix 1/26. Unlike the Avatar re-release, there will be Thurs previews for this one, they start at 3:00.

 

Hope everyone has another good weekend.

Edited January 20, 2023 by datpepper

[keysersoze123]

On 1/18/2023 at 8:12 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania MTC2 Previews - 50682/631915 750917.42 4068 shows

 

Its about 32 hours of data. Still phenomenal numbers. 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania MTC2 Previews - 58681/634597 866790.39 4080 shows

 

2 days of data. 

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, datpepper said:

Magic Mike 3 tix 1/23, but in the afternoon? Source says 3pm EST for now, tentative.

I'm already seeing showtimes pop up for that weekend (starts at 5 that Thursday).

[ZackM]

On 1/19/2023 at 12:55 PM, ZackM said:

 

Here is the "true" T-29 (as opposed to the 48hr update) from last night.

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago
Showings Added	7	4,565
Seats Added	1,228	859,653
Seats Sold	11,444	88,502
1/18/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	434	4,572	99,946	860,881	11.61%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	3	15	80	182
ATP
$18.34

 

Yesterday's numbers:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-28 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago
Showings Added	11	7	4,565
Seats Added	1,950	1,228	859,653
Seats Sold	5,354	11,444	88,502
1/19/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	434	4,583	105,300	862,831	12.20%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	3	21	88	201
ATP
$18.28

 

 

Today's numbers:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	3	11	7	4,565
Seats Added	396	1,950	1,228	859,653
Seats Sold	4,189	5,354	11,444	88,502
1/20/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	434	4,586	109,489	863,227	12.68%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	21	94	215
ATP
$18.24

 

[Eric is Anxious]

On 1/19/2023 at 11:47 PM, Eric is Missing said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-28 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	2927	31384	9.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 157

 

Comp - T-28

0.425x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.29M)

0.573x of Black Panther 2 (16.03M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	162	3020	31384	9.62%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 93

 

Comp - T-27

3.705x of Black Widow (48.91M)

0.414x of Doctor Strange 2 (14.89M)

0.578x of Black Panther 2 (16.18M)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	231	29080	32365	3285	10.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

227

 

Day 4 Comps

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	40.52		285	8107		0/329	32809/40916	19.81%		21117	15.56%		14.59m
TG:M	126.10		306	2605		0/257	33617/36222	7.19%		11474	28.63%		24.92m
L&T	62.09		231	5291		0/228	26309/31600	16.74%		16962	19.37%		18.01m
BP2	78.03		193	4210		0/294	32812/37022	11.37%		16800	19.55%		21.85m
A2	161.82		169	2030		0/142	19308/21338	9.51%		8986	36.56%		27.51m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-28 Comps

	%		Sold T-28	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.37		654	7403		0/329	33513/40916	18.09%		21117	15.56%		15.97m
BP2	62.22		139	5280		1/294	31742/37022	14.26%		16800	19.55%		17.42m

 

Regal:        561/12953  [4.33% sold]
Matinee:        72/1800  [4.00% | 2.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:              294/6479  [4.54% | 9.61% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Switching to T-x comps exclusively tomorrow, but I wanted one more day of initial sale data as I think it's still somewhat in the early growth stage (for Marvel films at least) and thus worth a look at the comparative daily sales.

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	235	29108	32529	3421	10.52%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	164
Total Seats Sold Today	136

 

T-27 Comps

	%		Sold T-27	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	43.74		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	16.20%		15.74m
BP2	63.40		116	5396		1/294	31623/37019	14.58%		16800	20.36%		17.75m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       655/12953  [5.06% sold]
Matinee:      101/3317  [3.04% | 2.95% of all tickets sold]
3D:             345/6479  [5.32% | 10.08% of all tickets sold]