The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BadOlCatSylvester]

8 hours ago, Eric Bear said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	195	16243	1.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Comp - T-22

0.145x of Black Widow (1.91M)

1.681x of The Suicide Squad (6.89M)

0.195x of Eternals (1.85M)

0.684x of Sonic 2 (4.28M)

0.141x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.54M)

0.161x of Avatar: The Way of Water (2.74M)

0.056x of Ant-Man 3 (973K)

Ironically Shazam 2 might very well open lower than Dark Phoenix. Goes to show the average Joe of 2023 is more aware of corporate politics than ever before.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cocaine Bear	T-1	Jax	6	24	30	130	2,474	5.25%
		Phx	7	24	50	184	2,709	6.79%
		Ral	8	31	16	104	2,617	3.97%
	Total		21	79	96	418	7,800	5.36%
Creed III	T-8	Jax	5	26	26	93	3,960	2.35%
		Phx	6	16	10	84	2,534	3.31%
		Ral	8	21	10	88	2,743	3.21%
	Total		19	63	46	265	9,237	2.87%
Creed III (EA)	T-7	Jax	5	8	4	64	2,172	2.95%
		Phx	1	2	2	15	618	2.43%
		Ral	2	2	3	37	412	8.98%
	Total		8	12	9	116	3,202	3.62%
Creed III (Pre)	T-5	Jax	1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
	Total		1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
Demon Slayer 2	T-9	Jax	5	17	9	295	2,730	10.81%
(OD)		Phx	4	13	28	333	2,412	13.81%
		Ral	7	23	20	330	2,664	12.39%
	Total		16	53	57	958	7,806	12.27%
Jesus Revolution	T-1	Jax	5	12	29	83	1,246	6.66%
		Phx	6	14	10	55	1,415	3.89%
		Ral	8	18	27	187	1,638	11.42%
	Total		19	44	66	325	4,299	7.56%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	13	26	384	1,156	33.22%
		Phx	6	10	19	210	937	22.41%
		Ral	8	15	40	787	1,622	48.52%
	Total		19	38	85	1,381	3,715	37.17%
Scream VI	T-15	Jax	5	23	4	140	3,350	4.18%
		Phx	5	17	8	255	2,894	8.81%
		Ral	8	33	3	170	4,211	4.04%
	Total		18	73	15	565	10,455	5.40%
Shazam 2	T-22	Jax	5	56	11	67	9,734	0.69%
		Phx	6	29	5	90	6,134	1.47%
		Ral	8	53	7	103	7,666	1.34%
	Total		19	138	23	260	23,534	1.10%

 

Jesus Revolution T-1 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - .785x (479k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .1.045x (763k)

 - Chosen 3 Finale - .223x (372k)

 - Chosen 3  EP 1&2 - .141x (529k)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 1.462x (2.63m)

 - Left Behind - 4.12x (2.516m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 5.486x (4m)

 - Chosen 3 Finale - 1.17x (1.954m)

 - Chosen 3  EP 1&2 - .74x (2.78m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-1 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.672x (2.42m)

 - Nope - .312x (1.958m)

 - Bullet Train - .564x (1.89m)

 - Violent Night - 2.2x (2.42m)

 - M3GAN - 1.25x (3.44m)

 

Creed III EA T-7 comps

 - NTTD EA - .671x (738k)

 - Bullet Train EA - 1.813x (2.27m)

 - Elvis EA - 1.526x (458k)

 

Creed III T-8 comps

 - Elvis - .833x (2.67m)

 - No Time to Die - .45x (2.34m)

 - Dune - .357x (1.82m)

 - F9 - .294x (2.09m)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-9 comps

 - MHA - missed

 - JJK 0 - missed

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.266x (5.45m)

 - Slime - missed

 

Scream VI T-15 comps

 - Nope - 1.865x (11.93m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.06x (10.24m)

 - Black Adam - .884x (6.72m)

 - Suicide Squad - 2.384x (9.77m)

 

Shazam 2 T-22 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.656x (8.25m)

 - Black Widow - .2x (2.65m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .087x (1.52m)

 - Eternals - .29x (2.79m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cocaine Bear	T-0	Jax	6	24	52	182	2,474	7.36%
		Phx	7	24	67	251	2,709	9.27%
		Ral	8	30	56	160	2,554	6.26%
	Total		21	78	175	593	7,737	7.66%
Creed III	T-7	Jax	5	26	8	101	3,960	2.55%
		Phx	6	16	11	95	2,534	3.75%
		Ral	8	21	8	96	2,743	3.50%
	Total		19	63	27	292	9,237	3.16%
Creed III (EA)	T-6	Jax	5	8	7	71	2,172	3.27%
		Phx	1	2	2	17	618	2.75%
		Ral	2	2	3	40	412	9.71%
	Total		8	12	12	128	3,202	4.00%
Creed III (Pre)	T-4	Jax	1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
	Total		1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
Demon Slayer 2	T-8	Jax	5	17	10	305	2,730	11.17%
(OD)		Phx	4	13	45	378	2,412	15.67%
		Ral	7	23	15	345	2,664	12.95%
	Total		16	53	70	1,028	7,806	13.17%
Jesus Revolution	T-0	Jax	5	14	31	114	1,422	8.02%
		Phx	6	14	7	62	1,415	4.38%
		Ral	8	18	45	232	1,638	14.16%
	Total		19	46	83	408	4,475	9.12%
Scream VI	T-14	Jax	5	23	24	164	3,350	4.90%
		Phx	5	17	14	269	2,894	9.30%
		Ral	8	33	8	178	4,211	4.23%
	Total		18	73	46	611	10,455	5.84%
Shazam 2	T-21	Jax	5	56	6	73	9,734	0.75%
		Phx	6	29	7	97	6,134	1.58%
		Ral	8	53	4	107	7,666	1.40%
	Total		19	138	17	277	23,534	1.18%

 

Jesus Revolution T-0 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - .899x (549k)

 - I Wanna Dance - .1.025x (748k)

 - Chosen 3 Finale - .263x (439k)

 - Chosen 3  EP 1&2 - .165x (618k)

 

With the free/cheap tickets thing I'm not sure what to expect.  If this was a normal release, I'd go with ~600k for Thursday previews.

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 1.377x (2.48m)

 - Left Behind - 3.94x (2.41m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 4.5x (3.28m)

 - Chosen 3 Finale - 1.15x (1.926m)

 - Chosen 3  EP 1&2 - .723x (2.71m)

 

Same story. Assuming normal prices I would guess around 2.4m for full previews.  The Ash Wednesday EA did extremely well all around.

 

Cocaine Bear T-0 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.611x (2.34m)

 - Nope - .299x (1.912m)

 - Bullet Train - .568x (1.9m)

 - Violent Night - 2.23x (2.45m)

 - M3GAN - .97x (2.67m)

 

Still expecting this to hit 2m, but now looking like it could push to ~2.3m.

 

Creed III EA T-6 comps

 - NTTD EA - .656x (722k)

 - Bullet Train EA - 1.753x (2.19m)

 - Elvis EA - 1.506x (452k)

 

Creed III T-7 comps

 - Elvis - .837x (2.68m)

 - No Time to Die - .426x (2.21m)

 - Dune - .355x (1.81m)

 - F9 - .303x (2.15m)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-8 comps

 - MHA - missed

 - JJK 0 - missed

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.266x (5.45m)

 - Slime - missed

 

Scream VI T-14 comps

 - Nope - 1.892x (12.11m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.64x (11.07m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 2.474x (10.14m)

 - F9 - 1.07x (7.61m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.292x (7.75m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.792x (7.44m)

 - Morbius - 1.346x (7.67m)

 

I added a few more comps after noticing that they were all closer to ticket sales numbers and pretty consistent in comps.  

 

Shazam 2 T-21 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.428x (7.11m)

 - Black Widow - .21x (2.72m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .09x (1.58m)

 - Eternals - .28x (2.67m)

 - F9 - 1.018x (7.23m)

[Tinalera]

9 hours ago, Eric Bear said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	195	16243	1.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1

 

Comp - T-22

0.145x of Black Widow (1.91M)

1.681x of The Suicide Squad (6.89M)

0.195x of Eternals (1.85M)

0.684x of Sonic 2 (4.28M)

0.141x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.54M)

0.161x of Avatar: The Way of Water (2.74M)

0.056x of Ant-Man 3 (973K)

This is gonna hurt isnt it?

[filmlover]

Still feel like it's too early to push the panic button re: Shazam! when marketing is just starting to fully kick off and the sense I get that it's going to be more walk-up driven than the average superhero title. We'll see.

[M37]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

honestly dont know if these shazam dailies are sad or funny at this point

To me: sad.  A sequel to a moderately well received $140M grosser should be have at least a decent opening weekend, but WB is putting no effort into this release, and the results are showing. I presume its partially a financial restraint, but they're banking more on Creed III (meh) and Flash (good potential there)

[Tinalera]

Was going to post East coast numbers for Canada for Scream 6, but there's almost nothing available for Presales right now out east. Ill just leave it today and go start tomorrow with west coast (no point doing Canada wide numbers if I can't include eastern Canada)

[JustLurking]

16 minutes ago, M37 said:

To me: sad.  A sequel to a moderately well received $140M grosser should be have at least a decent opening weekend, but WB is putting no effort into this release, and the results are showing. I presume its partially a financial restraint, but they're banking more on Creed III (meh) and Flash (good potential there)

It's hard for me to tell if the film is just that underwhelming or the marketing is that misguided. Not a big fan of Shazam myself, admittedly, but the selling point of the first film was the comfy family vibe, and now they have completely moved away from that in favor of some big stakes generic serious setup at the very least in the marketing, and I just wonder why anyone would care for that with Shazam, even moreso when the DCU is about to get reset anyway - who exactly are they selling this to...

Edited February 23, 2023 by JustLurking

[filmlover]

20 minutes ago, M37 said:

To me: sad.  A sequel to a moderately well received $140M grosser should be have at least a decent opening weekend, but WB is putting no effort into this release, and the results are showing. I presume its partially a financial restraint, but they're banking more on Creed III (meh) and Flash (good potential there)

WB is handling Creed overseas only. In the US it's being released by MGM/UA.

[M37]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

WB is handling Creed overseas only. In the US it's being released by MGM/UA.

Ah, that makes more sense, since they seem to be putting all their eggs in the Flash basket 

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Still feel like it's too early to push the panic button re: Shazam! when marketing is just starting to fully kick off and the sense I get that it's going to be more walk-up driven than the average superhero title. We'll see.

 

The Sonic 2 comparison is the one thing that gives some optimism. Both sequels, both kids based live action franchises. Both coming out when the market is starved for kids content.

 

But, the two movies seem so drastically far apart. There's a genuinely love for the Sonic franchise. As a sequel, it upped the ante by bringing in familiar characters and expanded the lore. It's hard to see Shazam being embraced the same way.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, vafrow said:

 

The Sonic 2 comparison is the one thing that gives some optimism. Both sequels, both kids based live action franchises. Both coming out when the market is starved for kids content.

 

But, the two movies seem so drastically far apart. There's a genuinely love for the Sonic franchise. As a sequel, it upped the ante by bringing in familiar characters and expanded the lore. It's hard to see Shazam being embraced the same way.

Maybe, but it wouldn't surprise me if the lack of family movies on the market is what gets it to at least a $40M market. The reviews are ultimately what's going to make or break it IMO.

[GOGODanca]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Maybe, but it wouldn't surprise me if the lack of family movies on the market is what gets it to at least a $40M market. The reviews are ultimately what's going to make or break it IMO.

Families could also choose to save their money for Mario 2 weeks later 

[filmlover]

19 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Families could also choose to save their money for Mario 2 weeks later 

3 weeks, actually.

[John Marston]

The first Shazam wasn’t exactly beloved (it was liked but people don’t go crazy over it) and the sequel is coming out four years later with no character appearances in between. This movie was always likely going to underperform no matter what 

[ChipDerby]

People need to remember that while yes, the first Shazam was well reviewed and liked, a lot of that like came from really hardcore nerds mostly comparing it to the bleakness of the rest of the DCEU. (I really like the first! I think it has a decent amount of problems, but was very enjoyable and the death knell "fun")

 

I think the second will be pretty well received by critics and audiences, maybe even more so than the first! but the anticipation is just not there it seems. Could be a ton of different reasons why. 4 years isn't THAT long of a wait, but it came out right between Captain Marvel and Endgame. So I imagine the film is just mostly... forgotten? And without a big star, who could've capitalized on the role (and didn't because... reasons...) we should've seen a drop coming.

[keysersoze123]

1st shazam was a non event released during the mania for Endgame. I am not sure why Sequel was greenlit without expanding the scope. Since this is set in larger SH universe, they should have added another SH for sure. Could be something like Cavill Supes mentoring young kid. But just making another movie adding more CGI is not going to help. Shazam is not interesting enough to exist on his own. Better off making these for HBO Max at a lower budget. 

 

Anyway this will be the last for sure. If Sandberg's effort are well reviewed Gunn/Safran could use him for other DCU projects(nothing major like Supes or Bats for sure). 

[GOGODanca]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/shazam-fury-of-the-gods-tracking-box-office-1235332509/

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I'll always be baffled as to why they just dropped the Mister Mind tease from the first film. He would've been a perfect fit, and helped this movie stand out by being a tiny talking worm.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

I feel like if the Shazam bombs, despite being a sequel to one of the more liked DCEU movies, that's pretty hard confirmation that the current DCEU is seen as toxic to the general public and Gunn, Safran and co gotta ditch 95-100% of it and go hard reboot.

 

This is also why I don't expect Flash to do as great as others are expecting but that's another thing....

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'll always be baffled as to why they just dropped the Mister Mind tease from the first film. He would've been a perfect fit, and helped this movie stand out by being a tiny talking worm.

Honestly, I feel the biggest letdown about this is that it doesn't look nearly as fun as a comic book movie that has Helen Mirren, Lucy Liu, and Rachel Zegler as its primary villains should be.