The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric the Minion]

On 3/11/2023 at 2:02 AM, Eric the Velocipastor said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	723	31960	2.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 360

 

Comp - T-26

0.585x of Sing 2 (5.7M)

 

Okay...this is what I was looking for. We golden now.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	859	31960	2.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 136

 

Comp - T-25

0.552x of Sing 2 (5.37M)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/11/2023 at 9:01 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
D&D	T-19	Jax	5	43	5	29	6,624	0.44%
		Phx	6	24	0	20	4,821	0.41%
		Ral	7	28	11	25	4,346	0.58%
	Total		18	95	16	74	15,791	0.47%
D&D (3-26 EA)	T-15	Jax	4	4	0	0	450	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	123	0.00%
		Ral	2	2	0	0	387	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	0	960	0.00%
D&D (3-29 EA)	T-18	Jax	5	5	0	0	1,456	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	410	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	261	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	0	2,127	0.00%
John Wick 4	T-12	Jax	6	42	31	272	7,238	3.76%
		Phx	6	28	33	317	5,746	5.52%
		Ral	8	37	9	279	5,199	5.37%
	Total		20	107	73	868	18,183	4.77%
Shazam 2	T-5	Jax	5	56	14	178	9,457	1.88%
		Phx	6	29	15	187	6,134	3.05%
		Ral	8	54	1	183	7,817	2.34%
	Total		19	139	30	548	23,408	2.34%
Super Mario	T-25	Jax	6	119	45	184	18,328	1.00%
		Phx	6	48	105	232	8,167	2.84%
		Ral	8	100	146	317	13,912	2.28%
	Total		19	267	296	733	40,407	1.81%

 

Shazam 2 T-5 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .814x (4.06m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - F9 - .481x (3.41m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Shang-Chi - .381x (3.35m)

 - Venom 2 - missed

 - Black Adam - .426x (3.24m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.16x (4.75m)

 - Free Guy - 2.3x (5.07m)

 - Creed III (Total) - .97x (5.29m)

 - Snake Eyes - 5.07x (7.1m)

 

Gonna keep throwing comps at it because it certainly isn't performing like a CBM

 

John Wick 4 T-12 comps

 - Suicide Squad - 3.1x (12.71m)

 - F9 - 1.235x (8.77m)

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - Top Gun 2 - .443x (6.52m)

 - Jurassic 3 - .392x (6.93m)

 - Scream VI - 1.29x (7.35m)

 

 

D&D T-19 comps

 - F9 - .2x (1.42m)

 - Sonic 2 - missed

 - Shazam 2 - .246x

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.423x (2.06m)

 

Super Mario T-25 comps

 - DBZ - 2.725x (11.73m)

 - Black Widow - .83x (10.92m)

 - Thor 4 - .51x (14.79m)

 - JW3 - .515x (9.12m)

 

(Just as a starting point, not bad!)

 

Super Mario (~39hrs) Day 2 comps

 - Eternals - .455x (4.32m)

 - Black Widow  - .53x (6.99m)

 - F9  - 1.18x (8.42m)

 - Shang-Chi - .634x (5.58m)

 - Sonic 2 - 1.775x (11.1m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
D&D	T-18	Jax	5	43	9	38	6,624	0.57%
		Phx	6	24	3	23	4,821	0.48%
		Ral	7	28	1	26	4,346	0.60%
	Total		18	95	13	87	15,791	0.55%
D&D (3-26 EA)	T-14	Jax	4	4	9	9	450	2.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	123	0.00%
		Ral	2	2	0	0	387	0.00%
	Total		7	7	9	9	960	0.94%
D&D (3-29 EA)	T-17	Jax	5	5	0	0	1,456	0.00%
		Phx	1	1	0	0	410	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	261	0.00%
	Total		7	7	0	0	2,127	0.00%
John Wick 4	T-11	Jax	6	42	19	291	7,238	4.02%
		Phx	6	28	22	339	5,746	5.90%
		Ral	8	37	13	292	5,199	5.62%
	Total		20	107	54	922	18,183	5.07%
Shazam 2	T-4	Jax	5	56	8	186	9,457	1.97%
		Phx	6	29	10	197	6,134	3.21%
		Ral	8	54	10	193	7,817	2.47%
	Total		19	139	28	576	23,408	2.46%
Super Mario	T-24	Jax	6	119	15	199	18,328	1.09%
OD		Phx	6	48	35	267	8,167	3.27%
		Ral	8	105	35	352	14,507	2.43%
	Total		19	272	85	818	41,002	2.00%

 

Shazam 2 T-4 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .744x (3.71m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - missed

 - No Time to Die - .58x (3.02m)

 - F9 - .464x (3.3m)

 - Ghostbusters - .717x (2.98m)

 - Shang-Chi - .369x (3.24m)

 - Venom 2 - .439x (5.09m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.12x (4.6m)

 - Free Guy - 2.07x (4.56m)

 - Creed III (Total) - missed

 - Snake Eyes - 4.5x (6.3m)

 

Gonna keep throwing comps at it because it certainly isn't performing like a CBM

 

John Wick 4 T-11 comps

 - Suicide Squad - 3.14x (12.86m)

 - F9 - 1.238x (8.79m)

 - No Time to Die - 2.03x (10.54m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .444x (6.52m)

 - Jurassic 3 - missed

 - Scream VI - missed

 

D&D T-18 comps

 - F9 - .219x (1.56m)

 - Sonic 2 - .335x (1.67m)

 - Shazam 2 - missed

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.5x (2.175m)

 

Super Mario T-24 comps

 - DBZ - 2.479x (10.67m)

 - Black Widow - .826x (10.91m)

 - Thor 4 - .281x (8.15m)

 - JW3 - .558x (9.88m)

[cookie]

10 hours ago, cookie said:

Shazam opens here in three days and 4/5 screenings in my town still don't have a single ticket sold, and our 500-seater has sold less than 25 tickets. This really is Dark Phoenix 2.0, isn't it?

It sold two whole tickets for one of the empty screenings today! 🎉

[screambaby]

15 hours ago, DAJK said:

Sheesh... at this point an opening under The Suicide Squad wouldn't surprise me for Shazam.

If Shazam really does as badly as its looking and scream holds strong it could be an i intresting race for first next week...

[filmlover]

It really does feel alarming that Shazam 2 comes out in 5 days and it seems like nobody is talking about it. Honestly with the good buzz it's now having I'm getting the sense that Dungeons & Dragons will overperform expectations while this underperforms as the last PG-13 aspiring blockbusters before summer movie season begins.

[M37]

16 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Minions had that TikTok craze, could that have impacted presales for that film? 

For sure, as generally, the younger the core audience the later tickets are purchased (with some added nuance with demographic breakdown).  But family movies are somewhat skewed, because the kids are the primary audience but the adult parents are buying the tickets, while teens are buying for themselves, and the viral nature of the Gentleminions trend may have pushed a lot late sales from people who otherwise would have passed on the movie entirely

 

But just to show how much an outlier Minions was, here's the data from Sacto showing the last two weeks of sales, normalized to T-7, and on a log scale. The four films in the upper tier - best not used as comps - are Minions, Nope, Venom and Sonic 2 in that order, and then a big gap before you get to the Shang-Chi/Black Adam range.

There are likely more smaller movies in or at least close to that upper tier, but below the cut-off Porthos has for when to track long term

 

 

 

I think for Mario, probably start with Sonic 2, but even that might be too high given the more fanticapation here, plus the no preview/Wed opening muddling the picture

[DAJK]

10 minutes ago, screambaby said:

If Shazam really does as badly as its looking and scream holds strong it could be an i intresting race for first next week...

I still think Shazam takes it. Scream is going to drop 50% at least.

 

Shazam - 25M

Scream - 18-19M

Creed 3 - 14-15M

65 - 4M

Cocaine Bear - 3.5

Quantumania - 3.5M

 

 

 

Yeesh... looking like a rough weekend lol. 

[efialtes76]

17 minutes ago, screambaby said:

If Shazam really does as badly as its looking and scream holds strong it could be an i intresting race for first next week...

Stop with the nonsense.

Please!

[screambaby]

14 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I still think Shazam takes it. Scream is going to drop 50% at least.

 

Shazam - 25M

Scream - 18-19M

Creed 3 - 14-15M

65 - 4M

Cocaine Bear - 3.5

Quantumania - 3.5M

 

 

 

Yeesh... looking like a rough weekend lol. 

Based on? Every time we get an update on week end figures s reams total goes up...I really don't see it dropping that hard

[JayPrimetown]

12 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I still think Shazam takes it. Scream is going to drop 50% at least.

 

Shazam - 25M

Scream - 18-19M

Creed 3 - 14-15M

65 - 4M

Cocaine Bear - 3.5

Quantumania - 3.5M

 

 

 

Yeesh... looking like a rough weekend lol. 

Which is why Shazam probably does better than this as it's the only wide release next weekend. Having PLF screens a huge benefit in its favor and no new kids centric content will get families to see it too.

 

 

[screambaby]

16 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Stop with the nonsense.

Please!

Saw someone say maybe 25 for Shazam or am I imagining things?

Unless scream drops drastically it will be a close race

I already had a couple of comment in here insulting me cause I thought 40 was a lock with its preview numbers...

Edited March 12, 2023 by screambaby

[Ronin46]

10 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Saw someone say maybe 25 for Shazam or am I imagining things?

Unless scream drops drastically it will be a close race

 

The last Scream dropped 59% 2nd weekend. A similar drop to that (giving Scream 45M this weekend) takes it to 18M. I guess it could get to 20M. Shazam "could open" to 25M but 30 seems more likely and 18 for Scream next weekend also more likely.   

[Napoleon]

I think $25m is probably unrealistic for Shazam 2. Official tracking by The Hollywood Reporter was $35-40m and aren't they usually conservative? I can't see it doing less than $30m. Members here just get carried away sometimes (for example, every weekend drop Ant-Man 3 has had was not as bad as BOT members were projecting...).

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

The last Scream dropped 59% 2nd weekend. A similar drop to that (giving Scream 45M this weekend) takes it to 18M. I guess it could get to 20M. Shazam "could open" to 25M but 30 seems more likely and 18 for Scream next weekend also more likely.   

I don't think 30 seems more likely. But Scream still ain't going 25 on second weekend.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Shazam 2 Marcus Theaters

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 248

Seats Sold: 1469/47599

 

0.361x Black Adam (2.74m)

 

I really don't have anything appropriate for this, crazy to see a CBM go this low. Bullet Train (without EA) was 1583 at the same time, but that did already have a lot of tickets sold for EA (I don't remember exactly how much of the previews were EA for that)

 

Friday

Showtimes: 328

Seats Sold: 1800/65544

 

0.774x Bullet Train (6.74 million) 

 

Again no good comps, but any way you look at it, it's awful. 

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[DAJK]

19 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Based on? Every time we get an update on week end figures s reams total goes up...I really don't see it dropping that hard

Mid-50s drop is pretty standard for horror, anything 50% or better is staggeringly phenomenal. Scream's WOM is good, but nothing out-of-this-world. Heck, plenty of decent horror flicks drop 60+% on their second weekend.

 

Plus, Scream has a pretty large fanbase at this point that will rush out to see it on opening weekend. This is evidenced by the movie's 5.7M in previews, which is a much larger share of its opening weekend than even Scream 5's 3.5M last year. 

 

And Scream 5 dropped 60% last year so a mid-50s drop is certainly plausible, if not likely.

[Ronin46]

I feel like John Wick 4 OW> Shazam 2 domestic total is a nice club to make.

[JWR]

15 hours ago, Mulder said:

We'll see how Flash goes since I feel like that's another one that could collapse.

 

No way in hell it collapses like Shazam has been.

[screambaby]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Mid-50s drop is pretty standard for horror, anything 50% or better is staggeringly phenomenal. Scream's WOM is good, but nothing out-of-this-world. Heck, plenty of decent horror flicks drop 60+% on their second weekend.

 

Plus, Scream has a pretty large fanbase at this point that will rush out to see it on opening weekend. This is evidenced by the movie's 5.7M in previews, which is a much larger share of its opening weekend than even Scream 5's 3.5M last year. 

 

And Scream 5 dropped 60% last year so a mid-50s drop is certainly plausible, if not likely.

Normally I would agree aboit a typical horror drop but  the wom is also hooked into people doing repeat viewings. 

Would actually be shocked if it does less then 20. And if Shazam really is heading for 25 that's 'close'

[screambaby]

2 hours ago, JustLurking said:

I don't think 30 seems more likely. But Scream still ain't going 25 on second weekend.

If Shazam does 25 and scream does 22 that's all I need for it to be 'close'