The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

38 minutes ago, DAJK said:

For context...

 

John Wick 4 has sold more tickets for its Thursday night 6:45 showing at ONE THEATER that I track than Shazam has sold for the entire weekend at that theater... plus 2 more theaters I track, COMBINED.

 

This shit is hilarious y'all. Wick coming for that 70M+, and I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if Shazam ends up around 17-18M. 

 

(btw, I keep refreshing both theaters I used to work at. Still at ZERO. Will update if that ever changes)

In Orlando, Shazam sold 100+ tickets as of T-7 while Mario had sold 1400+ tickets in the first 24 hours...

[el sid]

I don't have much time this week but let's see if - at least in my theaters - the Friday presales look better.

Shazam 2, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 209 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 58 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 24 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 13 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 91 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 141 (14 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 539.

Comps (all four films counted also on Tuesday of the release week for Friday): TSS (8M true Friday) had 1.089 sold tickets,
SC (20.7M) had 2.672,
The Batman (39.4M) had 5.716
and Eternals (21.2M) had 3.138 sold tickets.
Morbius (11.6M) had on Wednesday = 1 day later 1.541 sold tickets.

Over 500 sold tickets on a Tuesday normally isn't bad but compared to similar films it is. So I'm sorry but it seems like the Friday presales resemble those on Thursday.

[cooldude97]

41 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

Just very weird to see a bunch of people who love movies and box office cheer at the fact a movie is doing poorly. 

wick 4 is going to open big, and Mario is potentially opening to a 100M+ weekend, the box office will be fine with another DC film flopping 

[TheFlatLannister]

FWIW, I'm still comfortably on the ~$30M OW train

 

I don't think it will slip into the mid-low $20M nor do I think it will exceed $35M

[BeastByTheBay]

20 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

Honestly kind of hurts to see this fail because I really like David F. Sandberg and he is clearly a passionate filmmaker. I never root for most movies to fail unless it's a Dinesh D'Souza movie or some shit.

 

Yeah, I thought it's pretty cool that he puts out YouTube videos to help up incoming filmmakers.

[Flamengo81]

Anyone tracking Mario aside from Erick and Lannister?

[thajdikt]

4 hours ago, froztking said:

if guardians 3 with good reception fails to cross 850m$ ww then easy money from superhero movies r done ! super hero genre will go to mcu phase 1 era or before that ! with good movies doing 400-500m$ and well set up great movies doing 800m or 1b$ !

850? No way it´s getting that even if it´s good. WF barely did that. Guardians ain´t that popular. 700-750M at most

[Porthos]

For a place that could be described at times as Mean Girls, The Forum™, seeing some amount of schadenfreude at a possible historic ALL TIME BOMB shouldn't be surprising.

 

It's not that people are cheering, per se, because I think, on the whole, people like the folks attached (with the possible exception of Zach Levi).  But this place luuuuuuuvs a  trainwreck, and this looks to be an epic one.

 

It really isn't deeper than that.  

Well, for most folks here.

 

Or, to quote the Great Mel Brooks:  Tragedy is when I cut my finger. Comedy is when you fall into an open sewer and die.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Porthos

[GOGODanca]

WBD can claim that this movie has no place in Gunn's universe or that they don't have money but its flat out embarassing is this movie opens below Morbius and it might even negatively impact the flash especially in international markets as we've seen with marvel movies eroding fanbases OS

[Krissykins]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

possible historic ALL TIME BOMB.

 

Are things getting a little bit hysterical in this thread now?
 

Have there been any recent predictions for Thursday previews here based on the presales? Apologies if I missed them. 

[vafrow]

We're going to have a 6 week stretch of a new film topping the box office every weekend, and the major studio superhero film sequel is going to probably be the worst performing in that stretch.

 

Whether people are rooting for it to fail or not, this is the first time in a long time that the box office isn't needing a superhero film to succeed.

 

I feel bad, as this film is paying for the sins of the broader DC universe. But, that's the breaks for film box office.

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Are things getting a little bit hysterical in this thread now?

 

For a mainline CBM?  If it manages to do worse than Dark Phoenix, I think the category fits.   Hell, that this looks to be coming in under The Suicide Squad (for Thr previews at least) is downright shocking to me.  So perhaps at least a little of this is the processing of the shock.

 

And, personally, I'm still rooting for it to overcome the odds.  It's just I'm trying to describe the phenomenon here.

 

14 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Have there been any recent predictions for Thursday previews here based on the presales? Apologies if I missed them. 

 

@keysersoze123 was looking at 3.5m last night.  But the regionals might be pointing to sub 3m.  Sacto certainly is.  I'd probably put the over/under line at 2.5m or 2.75m right now.  Which is just.... Well, is what it is.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

For a mainline CBM?  If it manages to do worse than Dark Phoenix, I think the category fits.   Hell, that this looks to be coming in under The Suicide Squad (for Thr previews at least) is downright shocking to me.  So perhaps at least a little of this is the processing of the shock.

 

And, personally, I'm still rooting for it to overcome the odds.  It's just I'm trying to describe the phenomenon here.

 

 

@keysersoze123 was looking at 3.5m last night.  But the regionals might be pointing to sub 3m.  Sacto certainly is.  I'd probably put the over/under line at 2.5m or 2.75m right now.  Which is just.... Well, is what it is.

That was a best case scenario. May not happen if this is no increase in pace or if final day walkups are putrid. Anything is possible for this movie. 

[belblazer]

 

[keysersoze123]

if it hits 35m it would be a shocker at this point. Max i see is 30m with good walkups. 

[screambaby]

7 minutes ago, belblazer said:

 

So their following up estimating scream at onl ly 50 worldwide to going with 85 for Shazam. Is 60 million gonna be international?

Edited March 14, 2023 by screambaby

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, screambaby said:

So their following up estimating scream at onl ly 50 worldwide to going with 85 for Shazam. Is 60 million gonna be international?

No, as far as I can tell international is looking much like DOM really. Asian countries probably worse, even. China and SK are laughably bad.

[screambaby]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

No, as far as I can tell international is looking much like DOM really. Asian countries probably worse, even. China and SK are laughably bad.

60 is more likely then WW

Edited March 14, 2023 by screambaby

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/13/2023 at 3:27 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-4

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
17	240	3139	7.6%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-7	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
43	0

 

 

 

CINEMARK FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-4

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	22	1780	1.2%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-7	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
2	0

 

 

MISCELLANEOUS CHAINS IN THE GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-4

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
22	196	3815	5.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-7	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
9	0

 

A rough 3 days of sales. Could be looking at a sub $30M weekend. All the heavy hitters: Disney Springs AMC, Universal Cinemark look bleak right now. 

 

We are in the final stretch and sales seem to be slowing down even more. Wednesday, after review embargo lifts, I will have a massive update on all Friday showings in Orlando to see how its going. 

 

Comps:

Scream VI had sold 15.1% of seats as of T-4

Creed III had sold 9.1% of seats as of T-4

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-3

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
17	269	3139	8.6%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
29	0

 

 

 

CINEMARK FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-3

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
14	22	2067	1.1%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
0	3

 

 

MISCELLANEOUS CHAINS IN THE GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-3

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
22	205	3815	5.3%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
8	0

 

Pitiful pace this close to release

[screambaby]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-3

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
17	269	3139	8.6%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
29	0

 

 

 

CINEMARK FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-3

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
14	22	2067	1.1%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
0	3

 

 

MISCELLANEOUS CHAINS IN THE GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-3

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
22	205	3815	5.3%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
8	0

 

Pitiful pace this close to release

Sub 20 here we come