The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

From a closer look at the MTC pace I feel previews are heading for 2.5-3, given that Friday looks anemic as well that would be high teens to low 20s unless the Sat bump is really good. 

My club is going to win! Not bad for an amateur.

[cooldude97]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

 

 

aren't Creature Commandos and Authority tv shows? Which confuses me. Relying on TV to build up your universe seems like a bad idea. Apparently the Green Lanterns are going to be introduced in an HBO Max show, WTAF! 

creature commandos is a animated show where the voice actors will also show up in live action for future movies, authority is a live-action movie

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shazam 2

MTC1 previews - 29805/511940 541087.21 2570 shows

MTC1 Friday - 21065/749550 372687.15 3734 shows

MTC2 Previews - 13682/351361 184392.15 2045 shows

 

MTC2 data is as of 5PM. Thinking MTC1 previews will be at 40K wednesday and 70K finish. That should translate to 3.5m previews even with over indexing.  

Shazam 2

MTC1 previews - 33341/545143 597010.99 2821 shows

MTC1 Friday - 25214/865093 437982.66 4501 shows

MTC2 previews - 15494/423846 207591.13 2689 shows

 

Its over indexing at MTC1 big time. Pace increased about 50% from terrible pace yesterday. That is not enough for sure but there was no catalyst today. This basically will do whatever with walkups.  

[cooldude97]

1 hour ago, Ohana said:

The Flash is going to be a HUGE hit.

genuine question with transformers the week before, elemental the same weekend, and Indiana jones 2 weeks later. Why do you think the flash will be a big hit?

Edited March 15, 2023 by cooldude97

[keysersoze123]

Just now, cooldude97 said:

genuine question with transformers the week before, elemental the same weekend, and Indiana jones 2 weeks later, why do you thin the flash will be a big hit?

Flash is not just a flash movie. it has 2 bats. Keaton nostalgia would be in play especially if they re create the gotham from burton movies. Unlike Shazam it has been marketed with the SB trailer. Plus the rumors of showing the full movie at cinemacon well ahead of the release. If the content is there. There are enough aces in this project to get a big opening. Transformers is not a big deal and Indy 5 is opening after Flash. it has no impact on its OW. 1st 2 weeks are key and then its all WOM in play. 

 

That said "big" hit is subjective. I feel it has great potential for 100m+ OW. I will fine tune my predictions once presales start(or based on cinemacon reactions).

[keysersoze123]

John Wick 4 MTC1 previews(T -9) - 41303/430451 750266.97 2152 shows

 

Terrific numbers and great pace considering there is time to release. It should have good final week push towards to great previews/OW. I think 70M OW is in play here. 

[Mulder]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Aquaman should still make money as the default tentpole for Christmas this year. Unless audiences just end up rejecting it.

Test screenings are apparently awful.

[cookie]

On 3/12/2023 at 7:18 AM, cookie said:

Shazam opens here in three days and 4/5 screenings in my town still don't have a single ticket sold, and our 500-seater has sold less than 25 tickets. This really is Dark Phoenix 2.0, isn't it?

We're at opening day with 45 tickets sold in total. One screening is still empty, three others have two or less tickets sold, and the 500-seater has only sold 40 tickets.

 

(There are going to be a few walk-ups, but the numbers are still extremely pitiful. The weekend sales are only slightly better.)

Edited March 15, 2023 by cookie

[froztking]

2 hours ago, Ohana said:

The Flash is going to be a HUGE hit.

if it's to be considered as an huge hit then it should do min 900m$ with 300m$ budget and wbd throwing everything left to promote that movie , flash, 2 batmen, super girl , zodd and maybe wonder women + years in development ! 

i don't see it doing that much with the competition ! there only chance is to impress the theater owners and ppl in the industry at cinema con like top gun did last yr ! so they can get good wom an d good number of theaters because disney is releasing 2 movies during the same month and one in indiana jones !

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	139	19789	20487	698	3.41%

 

Total Showings Added Today	29
Total Seats Added Today	3292
Total Seats Sold Today	80

 

T-3 Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	77.99		144	895		0/100	15314/16209	5.52%		2352	29.68%		3.20m
LTBC	22.98		576	3037		0/216	28173/31210	9.73%		7712	9.05%		2.67m
ET	20.31		397	3437		0/118	13711/17148	20.04%		6409	10.89%		1.93m
GBA	59.30		182	1177		0/153	19354/20531	5.73%		3034	23.01%		2.67m
Morbius	44.26		225	1577		0/178	22278/23855	6.61%		3477	20.07%		2.52m
Sonic 2	42.82		269	1630		0/109	12800/14430	11.30%		3951	17.67%		2.68m
Minions 2	36.64		488	1905		0/188	25737/27642	6.89%		6591	10.59%		3.94m
Nope	57.40		260	1216		0/108	15099/16315	7.45%		3822	18.26%		3.67m
BA	32.14		286	2172		0/223	27742/29914	7.26%		4494	15.53%		2.44m
AM3	9.85		474	7088		0/269	28018/35106	20.19%		10475	6.66%		1.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Shazam 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

===

 

Actually faster for me to do it this way than a Q&D.   Well, with this many comps at least.

 

Been thinking for over a week that this isn't clearning 3m in previews.  Now I'm starting to think sub-2m in previews is a real possibility, as the pace against even family friendly films has been downright rotten.

 

For example, here's the comp block from last night:

 

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	82.29		141	751		0/87	14373/15124	4.97%		2352	26.28%		3.37m
LTBC	25.11		453	2461		0/183	26301/28762	8.56%		7712	8.01%		2.91m
ET	20.33		191	3040		0/101	12928/15968	19.04%		6409	9.64%		1.93m
GBA	62.11		75	995		0/117	16554/17549	5.67%		3034	20.37%		2.79m
Morbius	45.71		127	1352		0/151	20089/21441	6.31%		3477	17.77%		2.61m
Sonic 2	45.41		172	1361		0/92	11557/12918	10.54%		3951	15.64%		2.84m
Minions 2	43.61		263	1417		0/169	23955/25372	5.58%		6591	9.38%		4.69m
Nope	64.64		195	956		0/86	12735/13691	6.98%		3822	16.17%		4.14m
BA	32.77		216	1886		0/169	22425/24311	7.76%		4494	13.75%		2.49m
AM3	9.34		303	6614		0/251	27082/33696	19.63%		10475	5.90%		1.64m

 

Comps are trending in the wrong direction and have been for a while now.

 

This film is DOA.  Only question is: How big of a bomb is this gonna be.

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	159	21916	22725	809	3.56%

 

Total Showings Added Today	20
Total Seats Added Today	2238
Total Seats Sold Today	111

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	76.18		167	1062		0/105	15390/16452	6.46%		2352	34.40%		3.12m
LTBC	21.54		718	3755		0/241	29214/32969	11.39%		7712	10.49%		2.50m
ET	20.57		496	3933		0/130	14226/18159	21.66%		6409	12.62%		1.95m
GBA	53.58		333	1510		0/178	21594/23104	6.54%		3034	26.66%		2.41m
Morbius	42.47		328	1905		0/181	22143/24048	7.92%		3477	23.27%		2.42m
Sonic 2	38.60		466	2096		0/119	13278/15374	13.63%		3951	20.48%		2.41m
Minions 2	29.59		829	2734		0/214	27446/30180	9.06%		6591	12.27%		3.18m
Nope	52.23		333	1549		0/145	18685/20234	7.66%		3822	21.17%		3.34m
BA	31.49		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	18.00%		2.39m
AM3	10.54		587	7675		0/289	28754/36429	21.07%		10475	7.72%		1.84m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Shazam 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	95	12399	13791	1392	10.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

T-10 Comps

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	146.53		74	950		0/135	20309/21259	4.47%		3737	37.25%		9.08m
TGM	27.63		190	5038		0/259	30895/35933	14.02%		11474	12.13%		5.32m
JWD	43.69		192	3186		0/191	22186/25372	12.56%		4456	31.24%		7.86m
BA	124.17		47	1121		0/148	21302/22423	5.00%		4494	30.97%		9.44m
A2	40.08		162	3473		0/145	18011/21484	16.17%		8986	15.49%		6.81m
Scream 6	172.28		46	808		0/77	8931/9739	8.30%		3134	44.42%		9.82m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     287/3784  [7.58% sold]
Matinee:    50/1253  [3.99% | 3.59% of all tickets sold]

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	109	13836	15299	1463	9.56%

 

Total Showings Added Today	14
Total Seats Added Today	1508
Total Seats Sold Today	71

 

T-9 Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	140.94		88	1038		0/142	21077/22115	4.69%		3737	39.15%		8.74m
TGM	28.11		167	5205		0/268	31810/37015	14.06%		11474	12.75%		5.41m
JWD	43.28		194	3380		0/190	21844/25224	13.40%		4456	32.83%		7.79m
BA	122.73		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	32.55%		9.33m
A2	39.96		188	3661		0/184	22468/26129	14.01%		8986	16.28%		6.79m
Scream 6	172.12		42	850		0/77	8897/9747	8.72%		3134	46.68%		9.81m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     308/3784  [8.14% sold]
Matinee:    62/1253  [4.95% | 4.24% of all tickets sold]

[kayumanggi]

Terrible for SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS. I thought it was fun. 🙁

[Mulder]

If by some miracle Shazam 2 has good or at least decent reviews and WB was so worried they embargo'd until literally the day before screenings, I'm just going to come to the conclusion that WB was trying to kill it.

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/14/2023 at 4:19 AM, Eric Batson said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	86	488	17406	2.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 34

 

Comp - T-3

0.659x of The Suicide Squad (2.7M)

0.212x of Shang-Chi (1.86M)

0.178x of Eternals (1.69M)
0.466x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2.09M)

0.381x of Morbius (2.17M)

0.350x of Sonic 2 (2.19M)

0.373x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (2.24M)

0.157x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.82M)

0.305x of Black Adam (2.32M)

 

I don't even think this is hitting 20M at this rate tbh.

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	86	551	17406	3.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 63

 

Comp - T-2

0.613x of The Suicide Squad (2.52M)

0.210x of Shang-Chi (1.85M)

0.176x of Eternals (1.67M)

0.427x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (1.92M)

0.364x of Morbius (2.08M)

0.311x of Sonic 2 (1.94M)

0.372x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (2.23M)

0.157x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.83M)

0.286x of Black Adam (2.17M)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/14/2023 at 4:29 AM, Eric Batson said:

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	874	13379	6.53%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 54

 

Comp - T-10

2.792x of The Suicide Squad (11.45M)

1.029x of Venom 2 (11.94M)

1.164x of No Time to Die (7.33M)

1.106x of Dune (5.64M)

2.904x of Uncharted (10.74M)

1.332x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (7.99M)

0.512x of Top Gun 2 (9.86M)

0.449x of Jurassic World: Dominion (8.09M)

3.538x of Bullet Train (16.28M)

0.399x of Avatar 2 (6.78M)

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	913	13379	6.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 39

 

Comp - T-9

2.725x of The Suicide Squad (11.17M)

1.026x of Venom 2 (11.9M)

1.107x of No Time to Die (6.97M)

1.103x of Dune (5.62M)

2.936x of Uncharted (10.86M)

1.361x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (8.16M)

0.507x of Top Gun 2 (9.77M)

0.453x of Jurassic World: Dominion (8.15M)

3.181x of Bullet Train (14.63M)
0.392x of Avatar 2 (6.67M)

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/14/2023 at 4:36 AM, Eric Batson said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	1052	31960	3.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 65

 

Comp - T-23

0.720x of Sing 2 (7.01M)

4.311x of Sonic 2 (26.95M)

22.383x of Minions 2 (240.62M)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	1088	31960	3.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 36

 

Comp - T-22

0.743x of Sing 2 (7.23M)

3.817x of Sonic 2 (23.86M)

23.149x of Minions 2 (248.85M)

[CJohn]

37 minutes ago, Eric Batson said:

 

23.149x of Minions 2 (248.85M)

Endgame is going down. 1B 5 day total here we go.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 hours ago, Mulder said:

If by some miracle Shazam 2 has good or at least decent reviews and WB was so worried they embargo'd until literally the day before screenings, I'm just going to come to the conclusion that WB was trying to kill it.

These Hamada leftovers might muddy the waters and confuse people who are anticipating the franchise reboot they announced earlier in the year, so Warner is likely deliberately burying this.

Edited March 15, 2023 by BadOlCatSylvester

[Ohana]

6 hours ago, cooldude97 said:

genuine question with transformers the week before, elemental the same weekend, and Indiana jones 2 weeks later. Why do you think the flash will be a big hit?

The movie crosses several generations of comic book lovers:
-People who grew up on Keaton's Batman
-The Flash and Supergirl fans (mainly TV shows fans who wants to see their favourite character on the big screen)
-Man Of Steel fans (MoS already feels like a classic to me even if it's just 10 years)
It has a good director and the trailer was the best I've seen in years. 
I believe it will easily clear 100M opening weekend and will be everything Multiverse of Madness should've been and wasn't.

[JustLurking]

I don't think WB has the money to deliberately bury anything. The way things are going they might not even get to put out their new DCU if their releases keep tanking.