The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

40 minutes ago, Rainy said:

So what are people predicting for Mario's 5 day total at this point?

I'm thinking $140M (assuming FSS is $100M+ ; I'm not tracking those days so I'm blind there) 

 

It could go up to $150M but my gut feeling is reviews won't be kind to it which will hurt walkups and cripple the final hours of presales

 

I should have Orlando numbers up tomorrow to see where we are 

[OceanBlvd]

Did reviews cripple Minions 2?

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

Any predictions for Air?

Its not going to open big. It will be a WOM hit. I would be happy with double digits OW. Should have opened a week later for sure. 

[grey ghost]

Every kid begging their parents to see Mario by the weekend >>>> RottenTomatoes

[vafrow]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its not going to open big. It will be a WOM hit. I would be happy with double digits OW. Should have opened a week later for sure. 

 

For a movie that got a Superbowl spot, I'm surprised it's not getting more traction for its opening weekend. Strong promotion, great early reviews, A listers and you still can't get to a $20M opening.

 

It's a tough market for these films.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

25 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its not going to open big. It will be a WOM hit. I would be happy with double digits OW. Should have opened a week later for sure. 

if the reaction at my screening last night was any indication, Air could have some good WOM.

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/1/2023 at 11:50 AM, Inceptionzq said:

Mario Megaplex [+2 days of sales]

 

T-5 Wednesday(187 showings): 5913(+1351)/53894

 

T-6 Thursday(186 showings): 2031(+582)/53248

 

T-7 Friday(187 showings): 3076(+808)/52516

1.12x Ant-Man 3 T-7 (32.40M)

 

T-8 Saturday(187 showings): 2963(+432)/53569

1.47x Ant-Man 3 T-8 (49.84M)

 

Numbers are from yesterday evening

 

*Comping Mario Wed+Thurs

Mario Megaplex

 

T-4 Wednesday(194 showings): 6706(+793)/56714

 

T-5 Thursday(186 showings): 2275(+244)/56204

0.727x Thor L&T Thurs+Fri (50.53M)*

 

T-6 Friday(187 showings): 3511(+435)/56161

0.796x Thor L&T T-5 (32.28M)

 

T-7 Saturday(187 showings): 3289(+326)/56471

1.32x Thor L&T T-6 (55.76M)

 

Numbers from yesterday

 

*Comping Mario Wed+Thurs

[Inceptionzq]

On 4/1/2023 at 11:52 AM, Inceptionzq said:

Mario Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

 

T-5 Wednesday(194 showings): 7347(+1427)/31459

 

T-6 Thursday(196 showings): 4653(+1149)/31240

 

T-7 Friday(210 showings): 8978(+1648)/32723

 

T-8 Saturday(217 showings): 8600(+978)/33770

Mario Drafthouse

 

T-4 Wednesday(194 showings): 8117(+770)/31459

 

T-5 Thursday(196 showings): 5156(+503)/31240

 

T-6 Friday(210 showings): 9901(+923)/32723

 

T-7 Saturday(217 showings): 9373(+773)/33770

[cooldude97]

1 hour ago, OceanBlvd said:

Did reviews cripple Minions 2?

no, in fact, it's fresh with a 70 on RT

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

Any predictions for Air?

 

AIR

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
52	253	5161	4.9%

 

Comps:

SCREAM 6 : (0.1893x) $1.07M previews

 

Maybe $1.5-$2M in previews $10-$11M for the weekend 

 

 

 

[Eric Loves Rey]

On 3/31/2023 at 8:13 PM, Eric is Norlar Aver said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	210	3623	40562	8.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 409

 

Comp - T-5

1.652x of Sing 2 (16.08M)

3.535x of Sonic 2 (22.09M)

8.709x of Lightyear (45.29M)

8.565x of Minions 2 (92.07M)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	210	4314	40562	10.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 691

 

Comp - T-4

1.928x of Sing 2 (18.76M)

3.712x of Sonic 2 (23.2M)

8.492x of Lightyear (44.16M)

8.876x of Minions 2 (95.42M)

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

I'm looking forward to seeing the tracking for Guardians because it'll be a major decider for me if I go ahead with my "Dune II outgrosses every CBM in 2023" club.

[TheFlatLannister]

Dune II is not increasing by 75%

 

GOTG3 floor is around $700M

 

 

[GOGODanca]

Dune 2 over Blue Beetle is the only realistic club

[Inceptionzq]

5 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Mario Megaplex

 

T-4 Wednesday(194 showings): 6706(+793)/56714

 

T-5 Thursday(186 showings): 2275(+244)/56204

0.727x Thor L&T Thurs+Fri (50.53M)*

 

T-6 Friday(187 showings): 3511(+435)/56161

0.796x Thor L&T T-5 (32.28M)

 

T-7 Saturday(187 showings): 3289(+326)/56471

1.32x Thor L&T T-6 (55.76M)

 

Numbers from yesterday

 

*Comping Mario Wed+Thurs

Mario Megaplex

 

T-3 Wednesday(194 showings): 8012(+1306)/56714

 

T-4 Thursday(186 showings): 2774(+499)/56204

1.36x Antman 3 Thurs+Fri (62.92M)*

0.727x Thor L&T Thurs+Fri (50.53M)*

 

T-5 Friday(187 showings): 4100(+589)/56161

0.930x Thor L&T T-5 (37.70M)

 

T-6 Saturday(187 showings): 3787(+548)/56471

1.52x Thor L&T T-6 (64.20M)

 

Realized that the Thor Fri & Sat comps for yesterday were T-5 & T-6, not T-6 & T-7. I didn't get Thor numbers that day, so I'll just leave it but that's why there's a big jump in those comps

 

*Comping Mario Wed+Thurs

[Inceptionzq]

5 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Mario Drafthouse

 

T-4 Wednesday(194 showings): 8117(+770)/31459

 

T-5 Thursday(196 showings): 5156(+503)/31240

 

T-6 Friday(210 showings): 9901(+923)/32723

 

T-7 Saturday(217 showings): 9373(+773)/33770

Mario Drafthouse

 

T-3 Wednesday(194 showings): 9315(+1198)/31459

 

T-4 Thursday(196 showings): 5970(+814)/31240

 

T-5 Friday(210 showings): 11316(+1415)/32723

 

T-6 Saturday(217 showings): 10497(+1124)/33770

[PrinceRico]

6 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

if the reaction at my screening last night was any indication, Air could have some good WOM.

99 RT audience score. Could be A+ Cinamascore 

[GOGODanca]

11 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

99 RT audience score. Could be A+ Cinamascore 

Less than 100 reviews, it's noise at this point 

[PrinceRico]

33 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Less than 100 reviews, it's noise at this point 

Yes but noise that have gotten extremely loud since yesterday preview.definitely getting Ford V Ferrari vibes. 

Edited April 3, 2023 by PrinceRico

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mario MTC1

Midnights - 4352/33852 97569.22 169 shows

OD - 124944/1103282 1990575.92 6082 shows + 14753 

Mario MTC1

Midnights - 5064/33852 112218.02 169 shows

OD - 148984/1103464 2351476.46 6085 shows +24040

 

That is a crazy increase. Not even sure how high it can go before the shows start. Thinking even 250K+ is possible !!! Can it do 35m OD?