The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[thajdikt]

 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

So it begins. what is the 1st day target for Vol 03 at MTC1. 

1) Antman - ~88.5k

2) Wakanda - 110K

3) Thor 4 - 136.5

 

We never captured DS2 as it was impossible to get the data if I am not wrong. Based on how things went for other movies I would say 250K+. NWH was even more insane. Probably in 400K region !!!

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So it begins. what is the 1st day target for Vol 03 at MTC1. 

1) Antman - ~88.5k

2) Wakanda - 110K

3) Thor 4 - 136.5

 

We never captured DS2 as it was impossible to get the data if I am not wrong. Based on how things went for other movies I would say 250K+. NWH was even more insane. Probably in 400K region !!!

 

 

 

My personal target is 150+ but I think anything over 110 is acceptable. 

[keysersoze123]

I also think hype is there. It should do better than Thor. DS2 and NWH were different beasts that were bigger than the movies themselves and hype were for cameos and other stuff. 

[grey ghost]

GotG vol 3 will be interesting.

 

Will it bring back the MCU casuals? Will it cement that superhero fatigue is real and here to stay?

[Eric Loves Rey]

I don't pay close attention to MTC's numbers (sorry Keyzer ), but I feel like Thor numbers should be the goal here, unless I'm misunderstanding things. But I'm banking on lower than that. MCU oversaturation has already been a problem, and now I feel like fandom morale is at an all-time low, especially with Majors being outed as a terrible person. Makes it kind of hard to get excited for any new movie, especially one that doesn't lead into anything for the future Avengers titles. Would love to be proven wrong of course.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Eric is Norlar Aver said:

I don't pay close attention to MTC's numbers (sorry Keyzer ), but I feel like Thor numbers should be the goal here, unless I'm misunderstanding things. But I'm banking on lower than that. MCU oversaturation has already been a problem, and now I feel like fandom morale is at an all-time low, especially with Majors being outed as a terrible person. Makes it kind of hard to get excited for any new movie, especially one that doesn't lead into anything for the future Avengers titles. Would love to be proven wrong of course.

I would have agreed if it were say Marvels. But Guardians should be able ride its own journey independent of what has happened with Ant 3 or any cast member issues. Rocket I would say among the most popular MCU characters and his journey should excite the fan base. The General Audience we will know how the presales go beyond 1st day burst. if it starts meandering after a big start like Ant 3 then we can say GA have become Jaded. 

 

From Phily perspective, Thor underperformed big time. If I am not wrong your final comp with DS2 looked like 24-25. So doing in that range would mean Guardians is also doing badly there. It definitely wont hit Wakanda as that movie outdid DS2 in phily. 

 

What does our @Porthos think. MCU seem to perform in lockstep to overall domestic market. So we should know for sure where its headed over there. Wakanda with longer cycle was the only movie which played slightly different from the rest. 

 

I hope @Inceptionzq would post more regular data for Denver/Megaplex/Drafthouse as well. @Menor Reborn could cook up very interesting data if he succeeds :-) @charlie Jatinder will be tracking Harkins. 

 

 

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, Eric is Norlar Aver said:

I don't pay close attention to MTC's numbers (sorry Keyzer ), but I feel like Thor numbers should be the goal here, unless I'm misunderstanding things. But I'm banking on lower than that. MCU oversaturation has already been a problem, and now I feel like fandom morale is at an all-time low, especially with Majors being outed as a terrible person. Makes it kind of hard to get excited for any new movie, especially one that doesn't lead into anything for the future Avengers titles. Would love to be proven wrong of course.

 

Generally i agree with you, but i do think if any MCU movie right now has a chance to ignore the SH/Marvel fatigue/decline, it would probably be GOTG. Both Guardians movies were very well received and even many casuals know that this series is James Gunns vision that will be completed with this third one, so even people who have been disillusioned could give this one more of a chance than something like The Marvels for example.

 

I could be wrong ofc.

[grey ghost]

I think Wakanda Forever is the floor for GotG3 if it's good.

 

Nostalgia is a helluva drug and the GotG series was a fan favorite from the Infinity Saga.

 

It's possible Ant-Man 3 disappointed because of a lack of quality not because "Marvel is dying".

 

Ant-Man 3 is one of the worst reviewed Marvel movies. Of course it was frontloaded but what if Gunn delivers?

[Menor the Destroyer]

57 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So it begins. what is the 1st day target for Vol 03 at MTC1. 

1) Antman - ~88.5k

2) Wakanda - 110K

3) Thor 4 - 136.5

 

We never captured DS2 as it was impossible to get the data if I am not wrong. Based on how things went for other movies I would say 250K+. NWH was even more insane. Probably in 400K region !!!

 

 

I agree with the 150k number, Thor +10%

[GOGODanca]

10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I think Wakanda Forever is the floor for GotG3 if it's good.

 

Nostalgia is a helluva drug and the GotG series was a fan favorite from the Infinity Saga.

 

It's possible Ant-Man 3 disappointed because of a lack of quality not because "Marvel is dying".

 

Ant-Man 3 is one of the worst reviewed Marvel movies. Of course it was frontloaded but what if Gunn delivers?

You think 450m is the floor for a good GoTg movie? BPWF was good and it needed 5 weeks of no comp to hit that number, GoTg gets 2 weeks before getting hit hard

[thajdikt]

Ant-Man 3 fate was sealed by being one of the worst cbm´s ever made. Not by fatigue. The interest was there, at least domestic looking at the numbers in the thread.  GotG vol 3 will have the interest aswell but I wouldn´t be surprised if the sales aren´t as strong as maybe we think. It will be a testament to the MCU fans, but they´re usually loyal and one of the strengths of the MCU is they have different franchises. Yeah Ant-Man sucked but Guardians is it´s own thing and people know that.

Edited April 1, 2023 by thajdikt

[keysersoze123]

Just now, GOGODanca said:

You think 450m is the floor for a good GoTg movie? BPWF was good and it needed 5 weeks of no comp to hit that number, GoTg gets 2 weeks before getting hit hard

We are talking about previews. Since this is presales thread that focus on previews initially comps should be about that. 30m previews is a good target.   

[Flamengo81]

37 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

We are talking about previews. Since this is presales thread that focus on previews initially comps should be about that. 30m previews is a good target.   

I am not sure that especific comment was about presales though, it seemed to me more like the overall run. But it just how I interpreted anyway, I could be wrong.

[keysersoze123]

FYI initial allotment of shows for Guardians at MTC1 is 6644. That shows they are expecting huge presales. 

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

You think 450m is the floor for a good GoTg movie? BPWF was good and it needed 5 weeks of no comp to hit that number, GoTg gets 2 weeks before getting hit hard

 

Oops I meant Opening Weekend.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

So it begins. what is the 1st day target for Vol 03 at MTC1. 

1) Antman - ~88.5k

2) Wakanda - 110K

3) Thor 4 - 136.5

 

We never captured DS2 as it was impossible to get the data if I am not wrong. Based on how things went for other movies I would say 250K+. NWH was even more insane. Probably in 400K region !!!

 

 

I will be fine with 100k if it ends well. All the three films ended badly, BPWF a bit okay. 

[GOGODanca]

9 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Oops I meant Opening Weekend.

Ah, even then I think a floor of 182 is a bit too high unless this thing gets NWH level reception

[Inceptionzq]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I hope @Inceptionzq would post more regular data for Denver/Megaplex/Drafthouse as well.

I’ll be trying to post Megaplex/Drafthouse daily. No promises for Denver since I manually count that

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Guardians' goal should be an opening close to the last film. If it's more close to the first film then there's cause for concern cause these movies are more frontloaded lately and it's only got two weeks to itself before the summer onslaught begins, unless another studio does some trolling and moves something to May 12 (imagine WB moving Flash there). 

 

Of course, if the movie's good then it'll help against the packed schedule. And it most likely will be good. But in the chance it isn't, well, IDK but the discourse is gonna be wild.