The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/31/2023 at 1:53 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

THE SUPER MARIO BROS.

 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
167	4295	32958	12.2%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-6

331

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-6

3

 

 

3D SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
41	618	4480	13.8%

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-6

42

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-6

0

 

COMP PREVIEWS:

JOHN WICK 4 (1.366x) ~$12M OD Previews 

D&D (3.971x) ~$16M OD Previews 

 

 

Amazing daily pace. I'm thinking it can go higher than (2x) of John Wick T-0 for an ~$18M+ OD

 

Are we potentially look at a $140M+ 5 day here???? 😲

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

THE SUPER MARIO BROS.

 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
180	5846	34874	16.7%

*1 SELLOUT 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-5

1551

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-5

13

 

 

3D SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
42	789	4557	17.3%

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-5

171

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-5

1

 

COMP PREVIEWS:

JOHN WICK 4 (1.844x) ~$16M OD Previews 

D&D (5.342x) ~$22M OD Previews 

 

The final push is here. It's going to easily finish 2x of John Wick. OD is probably going to be in the mid $20s 

 

$150M 5 day might actually happen  

[DisposedData]

Screw it I'm going higher. Give me 160m+ 5 day for Mario

[JustLurking]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

No if at this point. This is raw data. 

I meant for the 24h.

[keysersoze123]

On 4/1/2023 at 9:58 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Mario MTC2

Midnights -3856/21204 56630.25 150 shows

OD - 105614/889874 1236441.50 5572 shows

Mario MTC2

Midnight - 4514/21353 66009.00 150 shows

OD - 126224/897055 1469311.21126224/897055 1469311.21 5598 shows

 

Excellent numbers for sure. 

 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

I meant for the 24h.

As I said the graph of OD presales are predictable. Huge start and fast slow down. Day 2 sales would be around 10% of OD. Which shows you how steep the curve is going to be. 

[Shawn Robbins]

Still early days for GOTG3, but a friendly reminder for comps that BP2 had Veterans Day amping up its Friday sales (and conversely, perhaps deflating Thu a bit).

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Not an encouraging start but tickets did just go on sale, so it’s best to give it some time. For what it’s worth, so far Dolby seems to be the major seller at my local AMC, not too much for others. Interested to see if that’s similar for anyone else.

 

in other news I just had some really good Cajun fries. Almost as good as these pre-sales for Mario.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Still early days for GOTG3, but a friendly reminder for comps that BP2 had Veterans Day amping up its Friday sales (and conversely, perhaps deflating Thu a bit).

yes. Wakanda had weaker start than Thor 2 but longer presales cycle. It actually caught up to Thor but Thor had great final 2 days of presales(stronger than even DS2) and so BP2 finished below Thor in previews but was way stronger for friday. Here its not a holiday friday and so I expect it to skew previews. 

[froztking]

marvel lost the trust it earned over the years with thor 4 and antman 3! many would wait for reviews ! if reviews r good then it will do fine but even if reviews are average this would finish below guardians 2 w/o a doubt and maybe even below vol 1 ! there is too many super hero stuff in the market ! already this yr both shazam and antman were meh ! now blue Beatle trailer looks fun but nothing spcl nd average ! gen audience r moving away from superhero stuff they don't see much difference in dc or marvel

[charlie Jatinder]

both Thor, BP & Ant-Man had started much better than where they ended up eventually.

I am not surprised with GOTG 3 started being lower than AM3 because that was a much bigger story event. What MCU need is that sales to end well. Can easily hit $25-30M previews despite weaker start than QM. 

[vafrow]

3 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

It's way too early to come to any conclusions but if the pre sales don't pick up I don't think the superhero fatigue hypothesis can be written off. These films are paying for the sins of many mediocre movies in a row and audiences might have to be won back. 

 

Agreed. This is another data point toward that theory. This is a strong brand now seeing a reduction in enthusiasm we saw a year ago for Doctor Strange.

 

One thing is clear is that we feel a long way from seeing any film challenge for the opening weekend record any time soon. We've had three films crack the top 7 all time domestic post pandemic, but only one of those even got within a $100M of the opening weekend record.

 

I struggle to think of how and when that record may be broken in the next 4-5 years. I don't think even under an Avengers banner, that the MCU can get there any time soon.

 

Ticket prices have gone up, so it doesn't need the same intensity as Endgame to get there anymore, but I can't think of what's currently in development that might. 

[TheFlatLannister]

4 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Agreed. This is another data point toward that theory. This is a strong brand now seeing a reduction in enthusiasm we saw a year ago for Doctor Strange.

 

One thing is clear is that we feel a long way from seeing any film challenge for the opening weekend record any time soon. We've had three films crack the top 7 all time domestic post pandemic, but only one of those even got within a $100M of the opening weekend record.

 

I struggle to think of how and when that record may be broken in the next 4-5 years. I don't think even under an Avengers banner, that the MCU can get there any time soon.

 

Ticket prices have gone up, so it doesn't need the same intensity as Endgame to get there anymore, but I can't think of what's currently in development that might. 

A film touching $1.2B in its OW looks impossible. With China's lukewarm reception towards Hollywood films and the rise of streaming, it may take decades of inflation to top Endgame

Edited April 3, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[kayumanggi]

 

[Maggie]

Superhero fatigue is possible, but maybe people  are not that excited because they know  Gunn has abandoned ship and went to DC. Anyway, i'm sure it will still be big

[GOGODanca]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Superhero fatigue is possible, but maybe people  are not that excited because they know  Gunn has abandoned ship and went to DC. Anyway, i'm sure it will still be big

why would gunn making movies for dc now affect marvel fans interest in guardians 3?

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, GOGODanca said:

why would gunn making movies for dc now affect marvel fans interest in guardians 3?

Maybe people think Gunn chose something more interesting. I don't know...i'm just thinking out loud. Probably a stupid take on my part.

[efialtes76]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

As I said the graph of OD presales are predictable. Huge start and fast slow down. Day 2 sales would be around 10% of OD. Which shows you how steep the curve is going to be. 

GotG3 OW will be bigger than Shitman 3 at 100%.

We're in Holly Week and with SM in 2 days.

Not the best time to start the presales.

 

[Borobudur]

So people are freaking out over weaker 1st day of the presale cycle? If avatar 2 and PIB2 offer any lesson, even a full OW can't really seal a deal yet. 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

So people are freaking out over weaker 1st day of the presale cycle? If avatar 2 and PIB2 offer any lesson, even a full OW can't really seal a deal yet. 

Those examples you used had Christmas, holidays and weak competition to fall back on. But I agree otherwise.

Edited April 3, 2023 by YM!

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

GotG3 OW will be bigger than Shitman 3 at 100%.

We're in Holly Week and with SM in 2 days.

Not the best time to start the presales.

 

Relax. I am not looking that far yet. Its just OD presales at this point. Trend we will know better after a week. I dont even want to extrapolate until day 2 PS at minimum and once Mario is out, I will look at Fri/Sat and MTC2.