The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

Guardians has already sold a bunch looking around Florida (especially at Disney Springs) and tickets went on sale not even two hours ago. Doubt it being HUGE! or bet on superhero fatigue (or something) diminishing the opening at your own peril.

[Dragoncaine]

20 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

if the reaction at my screening last night was any indication, Air could have some good WOM.

Co-sign. I thought the movie was great as well, probably my favorite of the year so far.

[dobrevv]

i feel wakanda forever and quantamania had bigger announcement that tickets were on sale

[GOGODanca]

It should be comped to Thor 4 and Ant-man 3, DS2 and BP2 are out of reach early on

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

How’s Guardians looking trackers?

Not as hot as I hoped for

 

However Disney springs already has near sold out auditoriums in the first 2 hours so... 

 

I should have numbers posted tomorrow afternoon 

Edited April 3, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[keysersoze123]

34 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

It should be comped to Thor 4 and Ant-man 3, DS2 and BP2 are out of reach early on

FYI Thor had a stronger start than BP2 for previews. But BP2 had a longer PS cycle and so at some point it did catch up but thor finished stronger and had slightly higher previews. 

 

Friday BP2 was way stronger than Thor and in fact finished higher than DS2 in presales there. 

[SpiderByte]

Air seems to be going for more Awards buzz, so it could rally late in the year if it gets traction that way

[keysersoze123]

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: vol 3 MTC1 previews - 33127/1130895 606713.29 6901 shows

 

Meh start for sure. if I have to guess its going to start slower than Ant 3. Dont want to extrapolate or predict previews/OW so early. Let us see how things go. 

 

MTC2 initial allocation is 3641 shows. Lowest among all mega MTC openers since last year including Ant 3 !!!

[BadOlCatSylvester]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: vol 3 MTC1 previews - 33127/1130895 606713.29 6901 shows

 

Meh start for sure. if I have to guess its going to start slower than Ant 3. Dont want to extrapolate or predict previews/OW so early. Let us see how things go. 

 

MTC2 initial allocation is 3641 shows. Lowest among all mega MTC openers since last year including Ant 3 !!!

Sins of the Father at its finest. I really don't see any other explanation. I have a hunch Alonso's head won't be the last one to roll over at Marvel this year.

[Mojoguy]

Lots of people waiting for GOTG3 reviews before buying tickets, terrible Ant 3 really damaged the MCU brand.

[dobrevv]

3 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Sins of the Father at its finest. I really don't see any other explanation. I have a hunch Alonso's head won't be the last one to roll over at Marvel this year.

kathleen kennedy is still in charge of lucasfilm so i doubt it

[GOGODanca]

Yeah probably a lot of hesitancy to shell out $15+ for a movie 1 month out without knowing if it's good or not 

[ThatWaluigiDude]

It is still too soon, but my fear could become a reality: people are not taking Marvel for granted anymore after the last few movies and series. The upside is that Guardians 3 might see a lower opening but better legs than usual, since I feel most will be waiting for reviews this time around.

[Mickiland16]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: vol 3 MTC1 previews - 33127/1130895 606713.29 6901 shows

 

Meh start for sure. if I have to guess its going to start slower than Ant 3. Dont want to extrapolate or predict previews/OW so early. Let us see how things go. 

 

MTC2 initial allocation is 3641 shows. Lowest among all mega MTC openers since last year including Ant 3 !!!

Considering that minus China the OS markets for Guardians has been almost or less than the domestic total, even with better legs opening under Ant-Man 3 would mean like  under/barely above $600M(?). As someone who loves the previous two really hope it can get better. 

As you say it's early.

[TheFlatLannister]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: vol 3 MTC1 previews - 33127/1130895 606713.29 6901 shows

 

Meh start for sure. if I have to guess its going to start slower than Ant 3. Dont want to extrapolate or predict previews/OW so early. Let us see how things go. 

 

MTC2 initial allocation is 3641 shows. Lowest among all mega MTC openers since last year including Ant 3 !!!

Maybe its just too early. Hard to tell right now. Orlando is a lot slower than I thought it would be. 24 hours should give a better picture 

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Mickiland16 said:

Considering that minus China the OS markets for Guardians has been almost or less than the domestic total, even with better legs opening under Ant-Man 3 would mean like  under/barely above $600M(?). As someone who loves the previous two really hope it can get better. 

As you say it's early.

Even *if* it was to start lower than AM3 it definitely wouldn't open below it. AM3 finish was just bad.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Maybe its just too early. Hard to tell right now. Orlando is a lot slower than I thought it would be. 24 hours should give a better picture 

MCU movies have a predictable pattern if during opening day. its sales if you graph is logarithmic rather than linear. So starts huge in initial few hours and then scales down. That is why OD below Ant 3 OD presales looks probable. 

 

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

Even *if* it was to start lower than AM3 it definitely wouldn't open below it. AM3 finish was just bad.

No if at this point. This is raw data. 

[DisposedData]

It's way too early to come to any conclusions but if the pre sales don't pick up I don't think the superhero fatigue hypothesis can be written off. These films are paying for the sins of many mediocre movies in a row and audiences might have to be won back. 

[Mickiland16]

4 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Even *if* it was to start lower than AM3 it definitely wouldn't open below it. AM3 finish was just bad.

Good point, maybe I overreacted, but it would probably still mean under Guardians 2 which is not as bad as under Ant-Man 3 but should be a warning on Marvel since that would mean less interest on the brand overall. But again it's early so let's wait for the first 24 hours.

[DAJK]

Yea… presales aren’t looking great at all here.