The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

10 hours ago, Shawn said:

Ignore underlined, I misread Jat's post and can't strike through on mobile. Yep, Paramount confirmed this exact breakdown.

 

$4.1M from Thu only shows is what Paramount reported when I spoke with them.

With numbers we have, $4.1M is hard to believe.

 

$5.6M make full sense tho.

 

$750K Amazon Prime shows

$150K approx Mar 22nd

$600K March 26th

 

$500K March 29th

$3.6M THU

[XXR vs XXR]

40 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Guardians' goal should be an opening close to the last film.

 

Disagree. The target should be $170M and the goal should be $185M.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

23 minutes ago, XXR Metro Boomin said:

 

Disagree. The target should be $170M and the goal should be $185M.

 

I should have worded my post better cause I actually agree with you. I just I think opening close to Vol 2 should be the bare minimum for Vol 3.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

 

I should have worded my post better cause I actually agree with you. I just I think opening close to Vol 2 should be the bare minimum for Vol 3.

In terms of admits, sure.

 

Hopefully there’s 20-30% growth in admits.

[ringedmortality]

Guardians probably gets the biggest opening weekend of the year right?

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[GOGODanca]

39 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

In terms of admits, sure.

 

Hopefully there’s 20-30% growth in admits.

wouldn't that require an OW of well over $200m?

Edited April 2, 2023 by GOGODanca

[Legion Again]

19 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

wouldn't that require an OW of well over $200m?

+20% would be like 220M. Way saga has been going I will take 5% 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mario MTC1

Midnights - 3957/33819 89382.73 169 shows

OD - 110191/1100816 1768156.51 6063 shows +12057

 

Another solid day for sure. Since its a wednesday release not sure how much weekend will slow down. It basically has 4 days of presales and then walkups. Thinking 175k+ presales for sure. May be even 200K. 

Mario MTC1

Midnights - 4352/33852 97569.22 169 shows

OD - 124944/1103282 1990575.92 6082 shows + 14753 

 

Considering its a saturday, its still really good. I wonder if it can do 20K tomorrow?

 

Mario MTC2

Midnights -3856/21204 56630.25 150 shows

OD - 105614/889874 1236441.50 5572 shows

 

OD took more than 10 hours to run !!!. So its not a T-3 number as it started this morning. Still its doing well everywhere. MTC2 tend to have even better walkups.  

Edited April 2, 2023 by keysersoze123

[ThomasNicole]

I think GOTG would be fine with a similar Thor 4 first day of presales 

 

Thor started really big, there was even some strong discussions about a possible 200M OW based on the data, which sadly started to collapse with the all over the place reactions, mixed reviews and bad audience reception 

 

If GOTG starts similar i think it will pointing to a possible 180-200M OW depending of the reception, which should be good considering Gunn track record and this movie being one of the few recent MCU titles with a solid production timeline 

 

A bit higher would be even better tho of course, let´s hope Ant Man won´t make a negative impact on it 

[DisposedData]

Mario pre sales are looking insane for an animated family film tbh. I wonder if it is going to blow up even more like Minions did right at the very end. It's already seeing a very solid boost.

[TwoMisfits]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

FYI initial allotment of shows for Guardians at MTC1 is 6644. That shows they are expecting huge presales. 

 

Interestingly, my Cinemarks seem to have been considering the fatigue more real...4 screens each for GTG3 for OW presales (16 showings each Sat, fewer on Fri/Sun due to theater hours).

 

That is in line with Ant Man 3's opening set and normal MCU singular hero set...NOT Strange's enormous set last May.  So, keep OW perspective in mind...think normal MCU hero, not mega-hero or team open...

 

  

[Krissykins]

GOTG2’s opening weekend was $52m higher than the opening for GOTG1. The total gross in the end, was “only” $56m more. 

I’ll guess $165m opening weekend for GOTG3 and $370-380m total. 
 

An international total less than both of the first films wouldn’t surprise me though. 

[Rainy]

So what are people predicting for Mario's 5 day total at this point?

[TheFlatLannister]

13 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

Guardians probably gets the biggest opening weekend of the year right?

Yeah and probably comfortably

 

Thinking $175M OW and I don't see another film doing $150M+ OWknd this year  

[GOGODanca]

Any predictions for Air?

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think GOTG would be fine with a similar Thor 4 first day of presales 

 

Thor started really big, there was even some strong discussions about a possible 200M OW based on the data, which sadly started to collapse with the all over the place reactions, mixed reviews and bad audience reception 

 

If GOTG starts similar i think it will pointing to a possible 180-200M OW depending of the reception, which should be good considering Gunn track record and this movie being one of the few recent MCU titles with a solid production timeline 

 

A bit higher would be even better tho of course, let´s hope Ant Man won´t make a negative impact on it 

Thor did not finish badly. Its final 2 days of presales were stronger than DS2 and Wakanda. Just that it had horrible walkups during its OW and its multi was just ok despite summer weekdays and nothing big opening after it opened. 

 

if Guardians have weaker than Thor OD presales, its not going to have dramatically bigger OW. Wakanda was bigger as Friday was a holiday and so presales skewed friday. Here that is not in play. I am expecting similar skew to DS2 for Guardians. 

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Interestingly, my Cinemarks seem to have been considering the fatigue more real...4 screens each for GTG3 for OW presales (16 showings each Sat, fewer on Fri/Sun due to theater hours).

 

That is in line with Ant Man 3's opening set and normal MCU singular hero set...NOT Strange's enormous set last May.  So, keep OW perspective in mind...think normal MCU hero, not mega-hero or team open...

 

  

you are comparing data for 1 theater with data for whole chain !!! I will tell you tomorrow if MTC2 allocations are mediocre or not. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/29/2023 at 12:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

 

Greater Orlando Region

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS 

 

T-0

Final update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
68	1242	13186	9.4%

^{*numbers taken at approx. 12:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-1 : 171

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-1: 16

 

 

COMPS:

JOHN WICK 4 - (0.3453x) $3.1M THUR

SCREAM VI - (0.9296x) $5.3M THUR 

 

Yeah I would stick with $3M-$5M Thursday 

With all EA included $4M-$6M

 

Going down to $30M-$40M OW after looking at outside rural chains.

 

Prediction: $36M OW

Off by $3M when actuals come in
 

I'm losing my wizard powers 

 

[TwoMisfits]

31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

you are comparing data for 1 theater with data for whole chain !!! I will tell you tomorrow if MTC2 allocations are mediocre or not. 

 

I know - but, they tend to be indicative of the chain on how it's setting overall...it's why I post the data when I have it early...

 

There's nothing wrong with an Ant Man/Mario presale set for screens (with Mario, for example, getting 20 showings/day vs 16/day for GTG3 b/c of length of movie) - it can still expand before open.  But, it's worth noting b/c now presales will have to prove the expansion, vs being like MoM and just being granted an enormous set at the get go...

Edited April 2, 2023 by TwoMisfits