The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[JayPrimetown]

59 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Still in the Evil Dead Rise over 20M OW train. Theaters need more hits than just one giant movie and everything else doing under 10M.

 

Go back 2 to 3 weeks and we had this. 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

EVIL DEAD RISE

11M - 16M opening weekend

22M - 36M total

Show count for Evil dead is pretty low. That might hinder its OW a bit. I believe @keysersoze123 said something similar 

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Show count for Evil dead is pretty low. That might hinder its OW a bit. I believe @keysersoze123 said something similar 

its very less for now. But let us see how allocations go tomorrow. That is when movies get a boost. I hope its closer to M3gan than say Renfield. 

 

Anyway 

Evil Dead Rises MTC1 previews - 16427/105454 275368.87 680 shows

 

Already pace is ahead of Renfield last week. With very strong reviews and franchise having some recall value, I am expecting this to have good walkups. So thinking at least 2.5m previews. But let us see how screen allocations go tomorrow before we hone in on a number.  

[poweranimals]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bad news is my presales count above had an issue. When I fixed it numbers for Guardians previews did go down. So we can continue to doom Guardians for now. Hopefully the tide reverses soon. 

 

I also hope @ZackM will start posting Guardians numbers as well. his comps and tables are wonderful. 

[Eric Quinn]

Evil Dead Rise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	28	395	5006	7.89%

 

Comp - T-3

1.062x of The Black Phone (3.18M)

4.759x of Barbarian (4.04M)

1.242x of Smile (2.48M)

0.308x of Halloween Ends (1.66M)

2.036x of M3GAN (5.6M)

1.543x of Knock at the Cabin (2.24M)

0.292x of Scream VI (1.66M)

[Eric Quinn]

The Covenant Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	12	21	1754	1.20%

 

Comp - T-3

0.913x of Operation Fortune (201K)

[Porthos]

 

On 4/17/2023 at 2:26 AM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-32 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	27083	27744	661	2.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

3

 

T-32 Comp:

%

Sold T-32

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

46.91

47

1409

0/168

22263/23672

5.95%

33839

1.95%

8.44m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     100/10146  [0.99% sold]
Matinee:     14/3533  [0.40% | 2.12% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-31 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	27068	27738	670	2.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

9

 

T-31 Comp:

	%		Sold T-31	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	46.14		43	1452		0/171	22337/23789	6.10%		33839	1.98%		8.31m
L&T	8.44		284	7934		0/237	24680/32614	24.33%		16962	3.95%		2.45m
BP2	7.99		267	8384		2/301	29553/37937	22.10%		16800	3.99%		2.24m
A2	17.08		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	7.46%		2.90m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     100/10143  [0.99% sold]
Matinee:    14/3532  [0.40% | 2.09% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 4/17/2023 at 2:27 AM, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	26287	29647	3360	11.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

90

 

T-18 Comps:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.87		176	9635		0/329	31273/40908	23.55%		21117	15.91%		12.55m
L&T	57.18		196	5876		0/228	25724/31600	18.59%		16962	19.81%		16.58m
BP2	52.27		114	6428		1/294	30596/37024	17.36%		16800	20.00%		14.64m
AM3	78.30		119	4291		0/235	28265/32556	13.18%		10475	32.08%		13.70m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      614/11054  [5.55% sold]
Matinee:    102/3555  [2.87% | 3.04% of all tickets sold]
3D:             375/5501  [6.82% | 11.16% of all tickets sold]

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	26211	29644	3433	11.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

73

 

T-17 Comps:

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.81		226	9861		0/329	31047/40908	24.11%		21117	16.26%		12.53m
L&T	56.89		158	6034		0/228	25566/31600	19.09%		16962	20.24%		16.50m
Bats	93.44		156	3674		0/248	28624/32298	11.38%		11757	29.20%		20.18m
BP2	52.22		146	6574		1/294	30450/37024	17.76%		16800	20.43%		14.62m
AM3	78.20		99	4390		0/235	28166/32556	13.48%		10475	32.77%		13.69m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:      640/11051  [5.79% sold]
Matinee:    107/3555  [3.01% | 3.12% of all tickets sold]
3D:            381/5498  [6.93% | 11.10% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

FWIW, Sacramentans miiiiight have been pre-occupied tonight/had other things on their minds than buying movie tickets for a film two plus weeks out.

 

Still, not exactly encouraging.

Edited April 18, 2023 by Porthos

[Eric Quinn]

On 4/16/2023 at 4:49 PM, Count Eric said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	2956	39919	7.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 53

 

Comp - T-19

1.961x of Black Widow (25.89M)

2.463x of Eternals (23.4M)

0.335x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.07M)

0.630x of Thor 4 (18.28M)

0.478x of Black Panther 2 (13.38M)

0.787x of Ant-Man 3 (13.77M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	3056	39919	7.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 100

 

Comp - T-18

1.877x of Black Widow (24.78M)

2.408x of Eternals (22.88M)

0.332x of Doctor Strange 2 (11.96M)

0.624x of Thor 4 (18.1M)

0.479x of Black Panther 2 (13.4M)

0.779x of Ant-Man 3 (13.63M)

[Eric Quinn]

On 4/16/2023 at 6:34 PM, Count Eric said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-33 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	442	17734	2.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp - T-33

0.401x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.23M)

3.593x of Nope (23M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-31 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	454	17734	2.56%

 

Total Seats Sold The Past Two Days: 12

 

Comp - T-31

0.400x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.21M)

3.413x of Nope (21.85M)

[M37]

12 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Show count for Evil dead is pretty low. That might hinder its OW a bit. I believe @keysersoze123 said something similar 

Horror films have a lopsided distribution, in that the sales are heavily concentrated towards metro areas, and locations after the first 2,000 don't really add all that much to the total

 

I think the bigger issue will be WB's lack of interest (or money to spend) on marketing, which means its probably less likely to pull in the GA who just don't know it is coming out. While sales look decent at present, I would expect walk-ups will be softer than comparable titles, and not sure it gets to even $2M Thursday from where its at now. Best case might be a Barbarian type run, with a smaller opening but WOM drawing in more people in subsequent weeks

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Horror films have a lopsided distribution, in that the sales are heavily concentrated towards metro areas, and locations after the first 2,000 don't really add all that much to the total

 

I think the bigger issue will be WB's lack of interest (or money to spend) on marketing, which means its probably less likely to pull in the GA who just don't know it is coming out. While sales look decent at present, I would expect walk-ups will be softer than comparable titles, and not sure it gets to even $2M Thursday from where its at now. Best case might be a Barbarian type run, with a smaller opening but WOM drawing in more people in subsequent weeks

I am not talking about theaters. I agree that majority of BO happens in big plexes in big markets. I am looking at shows alloted which have been lowest among movies with 20m+ potential. That could still change as major allocation happens on tuesdays for that week. Let us see how things go. 

[GOGODanca]

Can you guys check and see if a2 is getting imax screens this weekend in your locals? My AMC shows it having imax starting this friday

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

FWIW, Sacramentans miiiiight have been pre-occupied tonight/had other things on their minds than buying movie tickets for a film two plus weeks out.

 

Still, not exactly encouraging.

We know the solution. Just hope kings collapse and Warriors stay in hunt. 

 

[MrPink]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

We know the solution. Just hope kings collapse and Warriors stay in hunt. 

 

 

No. Light the beam

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:

Can you guys check and see if a2 is getting imax screens this weekend in your locals? My AMC shows it having imax starting this friday

 

I did a search of my area (since my locals haven't set yet), and so far, Mario is still getting significant IMAX penetration, so if A2 is getting Imax for Earth Day, it's not going to be a full share.  Mario is going to keep a significant portion of the IMAX availability.

 

Edit to Add: And doing a search specifically for A2, I got 3 Imax theaters with 1 showing each...for my area at this point.  Note, final sets are being slow everywhere here this week, so this is just a presale set, not a final set...

Edited April 18, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[el sid]

Guy Richie's The Covenant had today 44 sold tickets for Thursday (with showtimes in 4 theaters) and 65 sold tickets for Friday (with showtimes in 5 theaters).

Comps: Midway (925k from previews / 17.9M OW) finally (= on Thursday for Thursday and Friday) had 300 and 361 sold tickets.
Operation Fortune (220k / 3.1M OW) had on Wednesday of the release week (= 1 day left for The Covenant) 96 and 98 sold tickets
and Devotion (615k / 5.6M OW) had on Monday (= 1 day earlier) 19 and 46 sold tickets.
 

First I thought that with under 100 sold tickets on both days it's not looking good for that movie but compared to similar films 5-10M OW seem possible.

[el sid]

Evil Dead Rise, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 97 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 97 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 20 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 22 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 20 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 148 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 191 (2 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 595.

Up meager 8.5% since yesterday.
Comps (all three films counted on Wednesday for Thursday = Evil Dead Rise has 1 day left): Prey for the Devil (660k from previews) had 140 sold tickets,
Smile (2M) had 306
and Scary Stories (2019, 2.33M) had 542 sold tickets.
M3gan (2.75M) had on the same day, Tuesday of the release week 341 sold tickets.

Evil Dead Rise, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 143 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 64 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 20 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 23 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 16 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 134 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 183 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 585.

Up 28% since yesterday. Quite good for a Tuesday jump.
Comps (all four films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday = again 1 day left for Evil Dead Rise): Old had 262 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil had 207 sold tickets,
Smile had 399
and Scary Stories had 377 sold tickets.
M3gan had also on Tuesday 247,
Scream had 746
and The Conjuring III (no Thursday previews) had 797 sold tickets.

The Thursday jump could have been bigger but therefor it doesn't look frontloaded anymore. And still good numbers.

[TheFlatLannister]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

We know the solution. Just hope kings collapse and Warriors stay in hunt. 

 

Warriors are unbeatable at home. That series is going to seven

 

All GSW has to do is steal one on the road 

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Evil Dead Rise

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
23	641	3161	20.3%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

 

*6 New Showings Added Today 

*98 Seats Sold Today

 

Comps: 

The Pope's Exorcist (2.428x) ~$2.4M THUR 

 

Good news for Evil Dead, showing count is finally ticking upwards...Still behind Pope's Exorcist and Renfield

 

prediction right now: $2.5M THUR

 

Going to agree with @el sid and say it has a solid chance at $20M

Evil Dead Rise

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
27	745	3726	19.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST}

 

*4 New Showings Added Today 

*104 Seats Sold Today

 

Comps: 

The Pope's Exorcist (2.823x) ~$2.4M THUR 

 

More good news. Show count continues to increase. It's catching up with recent horror releases

 

prediction still: $2.5M THUR