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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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ZackM Box Office Gold

ZackM

Posted
Posted
On 5/3/2023 at 8:44 AM, ZackM said:

 

Unfortunately, basically no growth yesterday.

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
           
5/2/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 57 57 5,064 17,116 29.59%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 0 0 0 1
           
ATP          
$46.31          

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 163 142 5 7 8
Seats Added 15,602 18,074 265 679 1,256
Seats Sold 15,962 15,307 10,424 7,044 7,901
           
5/2/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 431 7,244 184,287 1,161,994 15.86%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 8 63 243 449
           
ATP          
$16.95          

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
  Ant-Man: Quantumania Black Panther: WF Thor: Love & Thunder
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0            
T-0            
T-1            
T-2 $15.2 $14.9 $16.4 $17.0 $16.7 $17.1
T-3 $14.8 $14.5 $16.4 $16.9 $16.6 $17.0
T-4 $14.3 $14.0 $16.1 $16.7 $16.0 $16.4
T-5 $13.8 $13.6 $15.9 $16.4 $15.5 $15.9
T-6 $13.5 $13.4 $15.8 $16.3 $15.2 $15.7
T-7 $13.1 $13.0 $15.5 $16.1 $14.9 $15.4
T-8 $13.0 $12.8 $15.5 $16.1 $14.9 $15.3
T-9 $12.9 $12.7 $15.6 $16.1 $14.8 $15.3
T-10 $13.0 $12.9 $15.6 $16.2 $14.7 $15.2
T-11 $12.9 $12.8 $15.6 $16.2 $14.7 $15.2
T-12 $12.8 $12.7 $15.5 $16.1 $14.8 $15.2
T-13 $12.8 $12.7 $15.6 $16.1 $14.9 $15.3
T-14 $12.8 $12.7 $15.7 $16.3 $15.1 $15.6
T-15 $12.8 $12.7 $15.9 $16.5 $15.2 $15.7
T-16 $12.8 $12.7 $16.0 $16.5 $15.3 $15.8
T-17 $12.8 $12.6 $15.9 $16.5 $15.3 $15.8

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
           
5/3/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 57 57 5,513 17,116 32.21%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 0 0 1 1
           
ATP          
$46.29          

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 39 163 142 5 7
Seats Added 4,709 15,602 18,074 265 679
Seats Sold 26,043 15,962 15,307 10,424 7,044
           
5/3/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 431 7,283 210,330 1,166,703 18.03%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 1 12 88 297 560
           
ATP          
$16.76          

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
  Ant-Man: Quantumania Black Panther: WF Thor: Love & Thunder
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0            
T-0            
T-1 $15.7 $15.4 $16.9 $17.4 $16.8 $17.3
T-2 $15.2 $14.9 $16.4 $17.0 $16.7 $17.1
T-3 $14.8 $14.5 $16.4 $16.9 $16.6 $17.0
T-4 $14.3 $14.0 $16.1 $16.7 $16.0 $16.4
T-5 $13.8 $13.6 $15.9 $16.4 $15.5 $15.9
T-6 $13.5 $13.4 $15.8 $16.3 $15.2 $15.7
T-7 $13.1 $13.0 $15.5 $16.1 $14.9 $15.4
T-8 $13.0 $12.8 $15.5 $16.1 $14.9 $15.3
T-9 $12.9 $12.7 $15.6 $16.1 $14.8 $15.3
T-10 $13.0 $12.9 $15.6 $16.2 $14.7 $15.2
T-11 $12.9 $12.8 $15.6 $16.2 $14.7 $15.2
T-12 $12.8 $12.7 $15.5 $16.1 $14.8 $15.2
T-13 $12.8 $12.7 $15.6 $16.1 $14.9 $15.3
T-14 $12.8 $12.7 $15.7 $16.3 $15.1 $15.6
T-15 $12.8 $12.7 $15.9 $16.5 $15.2 $15.7
T-16 $12.8 $12.7 $16.0 $16.5 $15.3 $15.8
T-17 $12.8 $12.6 $15.9 $16.5 $15.3 $15.8

 

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RamblinRed Box Office Gold

RamblinRed

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final
           
5/3/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 57 57 5,513 17,116 32.21%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 0 0 1 1
           
ATP          
$46.29          

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 39 163 142 5 7
Seats Added 4,709 15,602 18,074 265 679
Seats Sold 26,043 15,962 15,307 10,424 7,044
           
5/3/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 431 7,283 210,330 1,166,703 18.03%
           
% of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 1 12 88 297 560
           
ATP          
$16.76          

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
  Ant-Man: Quantumania Black Panther: WF Thor: Love & Thunder
  Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted
D0            
T-0            
T-1 $15.7 $15.4 $16.9 $17.4 $16.8 $17.3
T-2 $15.2 $14.9 $16.4 $17.0 $16.7 $17.1
T-3 $14.8 $14.5 $16.4 $16.9 $16.6 $17.0
T-4 $14.3 $14.0 $16.1 $16.7 $16.0 $16.4
T-5 $13.8 $13.6 $15.9 $16.4 $15.5 $15.9
T-6 $13.5 $13.4 $15.8 $16.3 $15.2 $15.7
T-7 $13.1 $13.0 $15.5 $16.1 $14.9 $15.4
T-8 $13.0 $12.8 $15.5 $16.1 $14.9 $15.3
T-9 $12.9 $12.7 $15.6 $16.1 $14.8 $15.3
T-10 $13.0 $12.9 $15.6 $16.2 $14.7 $15.2
T-11 $12.9 $12.8 $15.6 $16.2 $14.7 $15.2
T-12 $12.8 $12.7 $15.5 $16.1 $14.8 $15.2
T-13 $12.8 $12.7 $15.6 $16.1 $14.9 $15.3
T-14 $12.8 $12.7 $15.7 $16.3 $15.1 $15.6
T-15 $12.8 $12.7 $15.9 $16.5 $15.2 $15.7
T-16 $12.8 $12.7 $16.0 $16.5 $15.3 $15.8
T-17 $12.8 $12.6 $15.9 $16.5 $15.3 $15.8

 

Good jump yesterday. I feel like BP is the best comp. Hoping for $18M Previews. 

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted

Hmm. Something is off here. Can’t tell if it’s an over/under index issue, or something with ATP, but the PSM for Alpha is tracking way higher than normal for what is usually consistent MCU

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, M37 said:

Hmm. Something is off here. Can’t tell if it’s an over/under index issue, or something with ATP, but the PSM for Alpha is tracking way higher than normal for what is usually consistent MCU

What do you mean by PSM here? My usual interpretation of that phrase would imply Final/PS, but we don't have a final number. 

Edited by Menor Reborn
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BadOlCatSylvester Box Office Gold

BadOlCatSylvester

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

So unless walk ups are huge I guess a disappointing 110 to 115 it is.

The opening weekend is more or less a lost cause now. Marvel should instead focus on getting some positive word of mouth out there. The early international impressions do bode very well.

Edited by BadOlCatSylvester
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ThomasNicole Summer Tentpole

ThomasNicole

Posted
Posted
Just now, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The opening weekend is more or less a lost cause now. Marvel should instead focus on getting some positive word of mouth out there. The early international impressiojs do bode very well.

I don’t think so. In Korea for example it have a bad opening day but apparently is already recovering due to amazing WOM. 
 

I think previews / FRI is a lost cause, but while unlikely i wouldn’t be shocked with some unusually high SAT jump if domestic WOM follows overseas. 

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

MTC1 looks set to settle in at 18-18.5ish but other chains looking a little better.

Around lower end of what we had on first day of sales. Less than stellar reviews didn't help much but hey thank god atleast not Quantumania type murder in the end.

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PrinceRico Sleeper Hit

PrinceRico

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The opening weekend is more or less a lost cause now. Marvel should instead focus on getting some positive word of mouth out there. The early international impressions do bode very well.

Even so the film only has two weeks before it starts getting hit back to back to back. It really needed to come out the gate swigging. I have feeling people are just waiting for Disney+ because there is no other possible way you can explain a low opening.

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GOGODanca Box Office Gold

GOGODanca

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I don’t think so. In Korea for example it have a bad opening day but apparently is already recovering due to amazing WOM. 
 

I think previews / FRI is a lost cause, but while unlikely i wouldn’t be shocked with some unusually high SAT jump if domestic WOM follows overseas. 

Unlikely, not even top gun maverick could pull massive saturday jump, best hope is a strong sunday hold

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lorddemaxus Global Phenomenon

lorddemaxus

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

I don’t think so. In Korea for example it have a bad opening day but apparently is already recovering due to amazing WOM. 
 

I think previews / FRI is a lost cause, but while unlikely i wouldn’t be shocked with some unusually high SAT jump if domestic WOM follows overseas. 

You've been on this forum long enough to know that WoM doesn't work like that in the DOM boxoffice lol.

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Tinalera said:

Just wondering what comps I might have when I start doing Fast X? Would John Wick be applicable? DnD? Antman/GOTG?  (Those are the ones I would have a comp for. Could probably dig a bit for Avatar if applicable.

I’m going to start comping it with GOTG3 next weekend. Not sure if it’s a great comp but worth the try 

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ThomasNicole Summer Tentpole

ThomasNicole

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

You've been on this forum long enough to know that WoM doesn't work like that in the DOM boxoffice lol.

I’ve been in this forum long enough to know that good SAT jumps was normal for MCU titles before it turn into extreme frontloaded.  
 

But maybe i wasn’t clear enough: i’m saying maybe it can have a unusually high jump on SAT compared to recent MCU titles. And yes for this, is totally possible.

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lorddemaxus Global Phenomenon

lorddemaxus

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

I mean...it kinda does. Good WOM generally helps the Sat bump and Sun hold.

By how much though? Yeah, not disagreeing that marginal increases do happen. But we aren't going to see WoM have a large effect until later in the week.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

By how much though? Yeah, not disagreeing that marginal increases do happen. But we aren't going to see WoM have a large effect until later in the week.

With Sat ratio better in PS compared to QM (+17%) was expecting closer to +22% for this if WOM similar, could be closer to 30 with much stronger WOM. Similarly would expect Sun -30 but maybe could be -25 or so. Not massive changes but enough to affect the IM.  

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