The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I am wondering if Mermaid is going to hurt Spiderverse? Two movies heavily targeting the ethnic minority family demographics back to back was maybe not a good idea in hindsight. The one good thing though is if Mermaid skews heavily female and Spidey skews heavily male, then they may not have to share so much. 

I do worry the proximity creates a split family/gender divide effect, where instead of the whole gang going to both a month apart, we get a strong female (moms & daughters) skew for LM and male (dads & sons) for SV, shaving some potential off of both 

 

Or perhaps the releases that follow take hit instead, people have shelled out for two films in a row, and being more selective for the rest of the month. I do think TGM did that a bit last year to JWD and Thor, in large part because of the discrepancy in quality

[Mickiland16]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I am wondering if Mermaid is going to hurt Spiderverse? Two movies heavily targeting the ethnic minority family demographics back to back was maybe not a good idea in hindsight. The one good thing though is if Mermaid skews heavily female and Spidey skews heavily male, then they may not have to share so much. 

The last part is kinda confirmed, 2/3 of ITS audience were male. Not even the MCU has that kind of ratio normally. 

[joselowe]

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I am wondering if Mermaid is going to hurt Spiderverse? Two movies heavily targeting the ethnic minority family demographics back to back was maybe not a good idea in hindsight. The one good thing though is if Mermaid skews heavily female and Spidey skews heavily male, then they may not have to share so much. 

As an African American I can tell you that The Little Mermaid is drawing in the African American community for support.
 

Miles is half Latino and half African American but because of that he’s not really being pushed on either community. Spiderverse simply attracts Spider-Man fans. 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, XXR Metro Boomin said:

 

We’ll see what the tracking looks like in a couple of weeks, but at the jump AtSV is living up to its #1 most anticipated summer release ranking

[cooldude97]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think boxoffice.com initial forecast is too low. I cannot see this open sub 100m at all.  @Shawn

 

 

reddit found you

[JWR]

17 minutes ago, YM! said:

Transformers is the one surefire underperformer of the main blockbusters (I’d count Gillman but that wasn’t making as much waves as the big five). 

 

Gillman too, maybe. Marketing has been almost nonexistent for that one.

[MovieMan89]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

I do worry the proximity creates a split family/gender divide effect, where instead of the whole gang going to both a month apart, we get a strong female (moms & daughters) skew for LM and male (dads & sons) for SV, shaving some potential off of both 

 

Or perhaps the releases that follow take hit instead, people have shelled out for two films in a row, and being more selective for the rest of the month. I do think TGM did that a bit last year to JWD and Thor, in large part because of the discrepancy in quality

Can totally seeing the gender family split happening once both are out. Opposed to how most of the time I think a big family appealing movie will end up pulling in the whole family even if one gender of kids isn’t all that crazy about going. So yeah, both could get impacted. Spidey would be more so since Mermaid has its opening week without it (and a holiday to boot). 

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

 

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2050	32751	6.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 5:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.38

 

 

COMPS

T-18

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.424x) ~$7.4M THUR

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2081	32751	6.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 2:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.38

 

 

COMPS

T-17

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.418x) ~$7.3M THUR

[superheavysun]

If it's just good ATSV will EASILY will 100m+ opening. 

[keysersoze123]

18 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

reddit found you

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is definitely playing for the family audience like any animation movie. One of the few family outings for me as well as my daughter wants to see just this one. So it wont behave like Guardians close to release. 

 

Exactly - unlike GOTG 3, families will buy tickets for their 5-75 year olds...

 

[Porthos]

AtSV has already done 22% more than TLM's entire first day locally.  And that's with one A-tier theater yet to put up showtimes and an A- tier theater completely offline, though presumably still selling tickets on site (more on that later).

 

AtSV [11:50am]         568/18524    3.07% sold 124 showtimes

-------

TLM [1:10pm]             306/21690    1.41% sold   152 showtimes

 

 

Not a patch on recent CBMs, but then I wouldn't expect it to:

 

On 4/3/2023 at 12:48 PM, Porthos said:

Got done setting up sheets and...

 

GOTG3 12:40pm:           1317/29568 [4.45% sold] 205 showtimes

 

NWH 2am:                     6515/20399 [31.94% sold]

NWH 2pm:                  10685/24528 [43.53% sold]

Batman 12:45 pm:         1693/32197 [5.26% sold]

MoM 1:00 pm:               5030/39515 [12.73% sold]

L&T 12:15pm:                 2519/31603 [7.97% sold]

BP2 2:15pm:                   2197/33919 [6.48% sold]

 

(AM3 being a evening release isn't a good comp and thus not included)

 

*sees a ton of posts made since last night*

 

Yeah... That'd do it.

 

Still, this is gonna be big.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

20m previews for this movie would mean 175m+ OW !!! Best comp for this is Incredibles 2. May be @Porthos will have some comps though that was different era. 

 

I was dumb and didn't track I2 at all (I wasn't nearly as rigorous about the movies I tracked at the time).  So nothing from yours truly, sorry.

[Porthos]

@keysersoze123  If you want an unofficial comp from Ye Olden Days, TLK might not be terrible.  Otherwise, Frozen 2 might also be in consideration, though that had 18 days of presales as opposed to 25 and slightly different demos.  Also did track TS4, but dunno... Not sure that's as good.

 

(mind, noneof my comps from Ye Olden Days are actually good, but some are less terrible than others)

[misterpepp]

Maybe scrap the Strays stuff I mentioned a few days ago. Movie just moved to August. Guessing the early access event will be cancelled or delayed. Tix may still go up on the date since Uni’s been OK with super-early ticketing in the past, but I would expect that sale date to be cancelled too.

[Shawn Robbins]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think boxoffice.com initial forecast is too low. I cannot see this open sub 100m at all.  @Shawn

 

 

$100M+ is listed in the range, just not in that graphic. But it's also a four-day old forecast from before sales started. I'll be updating it later this week if the current momentum sticks.

[M37]

22 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Maybe scrap the Strays stuff I mentioned a few days ago. Movie just moved to August.

Good. That’s where it belonged anyway, was going to get overlooked in June

[Shawn Robbins]

I've been getting serious Shrek 2 vibes from Spider-Verse 2 in recent months in terms of how much it could increase after a super leggy original run. Glad to see these sales at least giving that some early weight. $300M domestic is looking even more doable if this pace keeps up and the movie is an audience hit again.

 

If Ninja Turtles can break out to some degree, there is a legit possibility Pixar ends up with the #3 animated film of summer. And maybe not even top five for the year. But that's speculative and I hope Elemental can bring the goods somehow, though it will likely have to be through legs.

[keysersoze123]

FYI Fast X is having advanced fan screenings like Guardians. 

 

http://www.mindonmovies.com/2023/04/fast-x-screening.html

 

Grab the free passes and hopefully this means its not terrible. 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

FYI Fast X is having advanced fan screenings like Guardians. 

 

http://www.mindonmovies.com/2023/04/fast-x-screening.html

 

Grab the free passes and hopefully this means its not terrible. 

 

Quote

Sacramento, CA
Regal Natomas Marketplace
May 15th, 2023 - 7:00pm
Download Screening Passes: HERE

 

Breakout for Fast X, CONFIRMED.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Porthos