The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Cap]

 

Pitting this between Batman and MOM is asinine even if you are worried about Omicron. 
 

Also, super rude?! We start a new thread, specifically because your tickets are going to go on sale, and you do this? This is the thanks that we get? No respect. No respect whatsoever what we do!!!! 😂

[Ryan Reynolds]

with the weak slate in early 2022, Disney should re-release Avatar

[Legion Again]

I mean it’s like Batman’s 5th weekend, and MOM will be in its 6th. The new date doesn’t have any issues with CBM competition — Sonic into Dumbledore may be more of an issue.   
 

If you really have to move it I’d probably look at mid Feb and shuffling Uncharted back again.

[TwoMisfits]

I disagree on shuffling back everything...do you know how many folks got year long movie passes for Xmas, and would love to see something in Jan? 

 

With Morbius out, every Regal, AMC, and Cinemark subscriber will all converge to Scream in Jan...whatever the OW tracking is, add $10M to it...

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I disagree on shuffling back everything...do you know how many folks got year long movie passes for Xmas, and would love to see something in Jan? 

 

With Morbius out, every Regal, AMC, and Cinemark subscriber will all converge to Scream in Jan...whatever the OW tracking is, add $10M to it...

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

So are we looking at NWH being #1 till how long?

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So are we looking at NWH being #1 till how long?

 

Scream may take it down in 2 weeks. NWH will probably do around $16-19M? If not then it could last until Feb 4th weekend. 

[Krissykins]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So are we looking at NWH being #1 till how long?

Maybe the 14th of January. 
 

If not, 4th February. 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

Scream may take it down in 2 weeks. NWH will probably do around $16-19M? If not then it could last until Feb 4th weekend. 

Yeah I have it doing $19M in that weekend. Is Scream opening that much?

[YM!]

Lol they moved Morbius again. This probably means we’re getting more Q1 delays right? Sigh.

[Legion Again]

Scream has a pretty decent shot at taking #1 imo, but I think it would do so narrowly and NWH will get it back on the 21st if so.

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah I have it doing $19M in that weekend. Is Scream opening that much?

 

I honestly haven't looked THAT hard at the numbers, but some of the tracking looks to be pointing at $15M+. @Eric Smith what're you thinking at this point? 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Scream has a pretty decent shot at taking #1 imo, but I think it would do so narrowly and NWH will get it back on the 21st if so.

I suppose FSS may be NWH win.

[filmlover]

This had to be due to promo-related challenges. Industry events are getting cancelled/delayed left and right (Peacemaker just cancelled its Hollywood premiere this upcoming weekend and while Scream should still be set for release next week, expect its premiere to be scrapped by tomorrow morning) and 3 weeks meant they had to make their final marketing arrangements (ads, billboards, tickets, the premiere, etc.) ASAP, so guess they decided to pull the trigger instead of taking the risk.

 

On the other hand, an already bleak January looks even more hopeless now (good chance more than one movie in the top 10 is doing sub-$1M by the last weekend of the month), so hopefully one of Moonfall or Jackass moves up. Only time will tell if this is the start of a new wave of delays.

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I suppose FSS may be NWH win.

FSSM the easiest win  

[EmpireCity]

Not to blow sunshine up your asses, but talking to someone from Sony, this had some to do with the variant but more to do with wanting to have enough time to promote and separate from NWH.  

 

January and February were going to suck anyways, so this will make March/April/May that much stronger.  

 

I also don't think this is the start of some wave of moves.  Data coming out is that Omicron is the end and will be on a huge downslide by March for The Batman.  There isn't really much else to move, so if something does in Jan/Feb, then so be it.  

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Not to blow sunshine up your asses, but talking to someone from Sony, this had some to do with the variant but more to do with wanting to have enough time to promote and separate from NWH.  Why would you want to separate from this and not piggy back off of the hype/interest? Doesn't make sense to me.

 

January and February were going to suck anyways, so this will make March/April/May that much stronger. I think this is the issue (for Morbius) though. You're throwing it around much stronger films to compete with than it would have at the end of January. 

 

I also don't think this is the start of some wave of moves.  Data coming out is that Omicron is the end and will be on a huge downslide by March for The Batman.  There isn't really much else to move, so if something does in Jan/Feb, then so be it.  

 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2022 by RiddlerXXR

[EmpireCity]

The thing I would say, and this is of course a big if, but if numerous people are right today about Omicron being the end of the pandemic and the burn out variant, then moving to April 1st makes sense.  

 

I don't see The Batman moving.  There is nowhere to move it. 

[Eric Duncan]

18 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Not to blow sunshine up your asses, but talking to someone from Sony, this had some to do with the variant but more to do with wanting to have enough time to promote and separate from NWH.  

 

January and February were going to suck anyways, so this will make March/April/May that much stronger.  

 

I also don't think this is the start of some wave of moves.  Data coming out is that Omicron is the end and will be on a huge downslide by March for The Batman.  There isn't really much else to move, so if something does in Jan/Feb, then so be it.  

 

 

That seems counter-intuitive. Wouldn't you want this film closer to NWH so it's easier to ride off the coattails of Spider-Mania?

[Eric Duncan]

1 hour ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

I honestly haven't looked THAT hard at the numbers, but some of the tracking looks to be pointing at $15M+. @Eric Smith what're you thinking at this point? 

I still don't want to say anything definitive, but probably 25-30M for the 4-Day? We're just starting to get to the acceleration period, so I'm not super confident, but I still don't see anything that signifies a mid-teens opening like everybody else is predicting.