The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[XXR vs XXR]

Nvmd.

Edited July 14, 2022 by StormbreakerXXR

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

As long as Crawdads gets a B/B+ CS I'm not worried about legs when the marketplace is so empty. A 20/70 run would be great 

 

Now the audience score is at 86%. 

Me before you, another romantic best seller has a 73% audience score on RT and it got an A cinemascore.

 

It's also interesting how the rotten percentage is a lot worst than metacritic average. 

 

 

[RamblinRed]

Currently you have a Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score of 29%, with a Top Critic ratio of 9/16 (36%).

Metacritic currently has Crawdads at 45. (slightly better than JWD 38 but worse than both Minions and T:L&T at 57).

 

 

[vale9001]

Never saw a movie with a 29% on Rotten and 45 on Metacritic 😅,

 

I guess real critics liked it a little bit more than all these Peters from sites like daddiesgeeks. 

 

Audience score now at 88% but still less than 50 votes, so it doesn't mean a thing. 

Edited July 14, 2022 by vale9001

[Rebeccas]

Just now, vale9001 said:

Never saw a movie with a 29% on Rotten and 45 on Metacritic 😅,

 

I guess real critics liked it a little bit more than all these Peters from sites like daddiesgeeks. 

It skews older.. even the book is more of something your mom or grandma would read. 

[M37]

6 hours ago, vale9001 said:

 

Now the audience score is at 86%. 

Me before you, another romantic best seller has a 73% audience score on RT and it got an A cinemascore.

 

It's also interesting how the rotten percentage is a lot worst than metacritic average. 

 

 

Nah, they measure different things. Rotten % means it didn’t meet the bar of “good” for that many reviewers, but the MC score tells you how they actually rated it. So median/consensus is a 4.5-5/10 movie, which is going to drive RT % down 

Edited July 14, 2022 by M37

[vale9001]

5 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

It skews older.. even the book is more of something your mom or grandma would read. 

 

I don't know, it's not john grisham, youngest people can like it too.  It doesn't have 2M votes on goodreads only because of over 65 people.

 

[vale9001]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Nah, they measure different things. Rotten % means it didn’t meant the bar of “good” for that many reviewers, but the MC score tells you how they actually rated it. So median/consensus is a 4.5-5/10 movie, which is going to drive RT % down 

I know but still is rare to see this difference between rotten and metacritic. 90% of the times RT score is better than MC and a 29% on Rotten means 33-35 on metacritic. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Never saw a movie with a 29% on Rotten and 45 on Metacritic 😅,

 

I guess real critics liked it a little bit more than all these Peters from sites like daddiesgeeks. 

 

Audience score now at 88% but still less than 50 votes, so it doesn't mean a thing. 

That is a pretty expected and common RT/MC split actually, it's just a function of the two sites measuring different things. Anyway, this discussion doesn't really belong in this thread, but just wanted to clarify that.

[reddevil19]

Not been following this one at all, but chances for Superpets over Lightyear OW? As a gay Liberal sci-fi fan, I had zero interest in Lightyear so not shocked so few cared about it, whereas Superpets seems like the kind of cute, disposable fun that can do well with young kids. Mind you, Minions has already been tapping that market, hence still apprehensive... 

[Old Spice]

SLC Cinemark Sugarhouse preview night update, 1:35 MST.

 

Where the Crawdads Sing

Total tix sold 89/144 61.8%

Fri 92/240 38.3% (by comparison, Thor currently has 58 tix sold for Friday with three shows that are completely empty, including an early evening slot that Crawdads would love to have.)

Sat 50/240 20.8% 

 

93.6% of Elvis ($3.28)

107% of Uncharted (3.97)

135% of Lost City (4.38)

 

I'll go with 3.6/25

 

Le Pattes de Hank

Total tix sold 4/186 2.2%

Fri 23/310 7.4%

Sat 0/310 0.0%

 

No sound. No fury. Nuttin. Go home, you mangy cur.

 

530K/6.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Grebacio]

25 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Not been following this one at all, but chances for Superpets over Lightyear OW? As a gay Liberal sci-fi fan, I had zero interest in Lightyear so not shocked so few cared about it, whereas Superpets seems like the kind of cute, disposable fun that can do well with young kids. Mind you, Minions has already been tapping that market, hence still apprehensive... 

Super pets OW > Ligthyear OW seems unlikely, but the former's total Dom gross can be higher than Lightyear gross

[el sid]

Sorry for being so late but the evenings are warm and nice here at the moment so normally I sit on the terrace with my family and then it's always later than I thought.

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank, counted today at 10am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 37 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 12 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 1+ (3 showtimes, all Sell Outs – I doubt it)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 17 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 19 ( 3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 50 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 138.
Up 13% since yesterday.

 

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank, counted today at 10am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 48 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 10 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 5 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 7 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 19 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 14 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 103.
Again 13% up since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): The Boss Baby 2 had 190 sold tickets in 6 theaters,

Paw Patrol had 315 sold tickets also in 6 theaters,

JC had 817 sold tickets in 7 theaters

and Clifford had 152 sold tickets in 7 theaters.

I don't rule out double digits but most of my comps suggest a lower opening.


Where the Crawdads Sing, counted today at 10am EST for Thursday, July 14:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 20 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 43 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 25 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 28 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 51 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 95 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 262.
Mediocre 24% up since yesterday.
Comp: Death on the Nile had on the same day 376 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters.

 

Where the Crawdads Sing, counted today at 10am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 16 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 51 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 46 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 29 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 58 ( 5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 62 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 262.
Up good 42 % since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Old had in the same 6 theaters 390 sold tickets = 67%,

The Night House had 90 sold tickets in 6 theaters (AMC Lakeline missing),

The Last Duel had 124 in the same 6 theaters,

The Good Liar had 102 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters

and Death on the Nile had 404 sold tickets in the same 6 theaters.

 

Almost all comps point to more than 10M OW. But how strong will the walk-ups be? Judging from my comps it will become difficult to reach 20M OW. 15M would be my guess.

Edited July 14, 2022 by el sid

[Eric Duncan]

16 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	48	69	5482	1.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 31

 

Comp

0.256x of Boss Baby 2 T-1 (336K)

0.220x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (595K)

0.657x of Addams Family 2 T-1 (361K)

2.379x of Ron's Gone Wrong T-1 (571K)

0.223x of Encanto T-1 (335K)

0.454x of The Bad Guys T-1 (522K)

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	48	166	5482	3.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 97

 

Comp

0.217x of Boss Baby 2 (285K)

0.211x of Jungle Cruise (569K)

0.869x of Addams Family 2 (478K)

1.908x of Ron's Gone Wrong (458K)

0.245x of Encanto (367K)

0.443x of The Bad Guys (509K)

[Eric Duncan]

16 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

Where the Crawdads Sing Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	45	329	5287	6.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 69

 

Comp

1.567x of Dear Evan Hansen T-1 (1.25M)

1.246x of West Side Story T-1 (997K)

1.256x of Death on the Nile T-1 (1.38M)

3.133x of Marry Me T-1 (1.64M)

1.462x of Dog T-1 (1.84M)

0.425x of The Lost City T-1 (1.38M)

0.572x of Downton Abbey 2 T-1 (1.09M)

0.446x of Elvis T-1 (1.56M)

 

Full disclosure, I forgot about the Early Access shows today, so this is an incomplete picture. But for some of these other comps, I missed an Early Access day for them too, so I guess it's fair. This stuff really is obnoxious these days.

Where the Crawdads Sing Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	45	575	5287	10.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 246

 

Comp

1.837x of Dear Evan Hansen (1.47M)

1.490x of West Side Story (953M)

1.501x of Death on the Nile (1.65M)

3.783x of Marry Me (1.99M)

2.083x of Dog (2.62M)

0.563x of The Lost City (1.83M)

0.855x of Downton Abbey 2 (1.62M)

0.535x of Elvis (1.87M)

 

Thank you @katnisscinnaplex for finding the Early Access shows I forgot about. A true lifesaver situation.

[Shawn Robbins]

5 hours ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

Nvmd.

150ish is what I was told. (Dare you try to evade our ability to see edits!) 😛

[XXR vs XXR]

29 minutes ago, Shawn said:

150ish is what I was told. (Dare you try to evade our ability to see edits!) 😛

Foiled again! I read through the BOP write up for the weekend and saw it was mentioned. Didn’t mean to double work ya 😅

[XXR vs XXR]

Ran my numbers but I’m away from my comp so I won’t post them tonight but man, Paws of Fury is looking bad for the weekend. Maybe even sub $5M. Crawdads and Mrs. Harris are looking like $12M and $1M, based on my comps.

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-0	Jax	6	24	80	282	2,337	12.07%
		Phx	6	19	59	152	2,273	6.69%
		Ral	7	29	119	532	2,784	19.11%
	Total		19	72	258	966	7,394	13.06%
Mrs. Harris	T-0	Jax	4	8	4	22	376	5.85%
		Phx	2	4	2	14	190	7.37%
		Ral	4	5	2	23	459	5.01%
	Total		10	17	8	59	1,025	5.76%
Paws of Fury	T-0	Jax	6	27	18	42	2,550	1.65%
		Phx	5	17	9	46	1,797	2.56%
		Ral	7	20	7	45	2,063	2.18%
	Total		18	64	34	133	6,410	2.07%

 

Crawdads T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .838x (2.68m)

 - Dune - .437x (2.23m)

 - Uncharted - .768x (2.84m)

 - Black Phone - 1.43x (3.72m)

 - Halloween Kills - .533x (2.59m)

 - Ghostbusters - .539x (2.24m)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 4.95x (2.97m)

 - West Side Story - 3.3x (2.64m)

 - Death on the Nile - 2.86x (3.14m)

 - Marry Me - 5.52x (2.9m)

 - Dog - 7.26x (9.15m)

 - Lost City - 1.41x (3.52m)

 - Downton + EA - .744x (1.34m)

 - Respect - 6.44x (4.19m)

 - X - 4.332x (1.91m)

 

I'm really struggling with where to project this.  No idea how much Raleigh is over-indexing, but I have to factor that in some.  For my early guess, I'll go with 2.2m for true Thursday.

 

Paws of Fury T-0 comps

 - Bad Guys - .613x (705k)

 - Peter Rabbit - .516x (464k)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .095x (429k)

 - Encanto (Tue) - .294 (441k)

 - Ron's Gone Wrong - 4.43x (1.06m)

 

With it being summer, I'll give it a little boost for walkups.  Let's say 550k for previews.

 

Mrs. Harris T-0 comps

 - Stillwater - 881x (247k)

 - Respect - .393x (256k)

 - House of Gucci - .13x (169k)

 - Spencer - .819x

 

Should be around 250k.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	1-Hr	Jax	6	24	128	410	2,337	17.54%
		Phx	6	19	24	176	2,273	7.74%
		Ral	8	31	176	708	2,942	24.07%
	Total		20	74	328	1,294	7,552	17.13%
Mrs. Harris	1-Hr	Jax	4	8	-1	21	376	5.59%
		Phx	2	4	3	17	190	8.95%
		Ral	4	5	6	29	459	6.32%
	Total		10	17	8	67	1,025	6.54%
Paws of Fury	1-Hr	Jax	6	27	41	83	2,550	3.25%
		Phx	5	17	17	63	1,797	3.51%
		Ral	7	20	40	85	2,063	4.12%
	Total		18	64	98	231	6,410	3.60%

 

Crawdads T-1 hr comps

 - Elvis - .811x (2.59m)

 - Dune - .471x (2.4m)

 - Black Phone - 1.12x (2.92m)

 - Halloween Kills - .519x (2.52m)

 - Ghostbusters - .543x (2.25m)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 5.3x (3.18m)

 - West Side Story - 3.4x (2.72m)

 - Lost City - 1.29x (3.23m)

 - Downton + EA - .88x (1.58m)

 - Respect - 5.32x (3.46m)

 - X - 3.77x (1.66m)

All drama movies - 2.28m

All PG-13 movies - 2.58m

All 3pm previews - 2.53m

All movies - 2.57m

 

Final projection: 2m for true Thursday. 

 

Paws of Fury T-1 hr comps

 - Bad Guys - .623x (716k)

 - Encanto (Tue) - .327x (490k)

All animated movies - 554k

All PG movies - 466k

All 3pm previews - 452k

All movies - 459k

 

I like the final pace and will go on the higher side with 550k

 

Mrs. Harris T-1 hr comps

 - Stillwater - .5x (140k)

 - Respect - .276x (179k)

 - House of Gucci - .1x (130k)

All drama movies - 118k

All 7pm previews - 126k

All movies - 133k

 

Terrible last day for Mrs. Harris.  Probably won't get reported but I'll go with 160k

[Inceptionzq]

Nope Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

108

1796

6.01%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

132

2004

6.59%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
559	N/A	17420	3.21%	15	83

 

AMCs sold	423
Cinemarks sold	57
Regals sold	45
Harkins sold	34

 

1.68x Halloween Kills T-7 (8.25M)

1.38x Suicide Squad T-7 (5.66M)

 

No Scream comp today