The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

With the social embargo lifting today and most reactions seems to on positive side could we see a catalyst in sales today or tomorrow? Most of the reactions are in French so maybe it won´t reach the domestic audience? Doesn´t seem like there will be any more screenings then the one they had today before the LA premiere on Thursday night so if not Friday it is?

Maybe a small boost, I doubt anything like what the usual post-premiere boost of double or more is. 

[ZackM]

On 4/21/2023 at 2:38 PM, ZackM said:

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days
4/20/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,053	17,116	23.68%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.34

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	3	2	4	6,870
Seats Added	321	194	480	1,119,673
Seats Sold	1,831	1,560	2,251	98,230
4/20/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,879	103,872	1,120,668	9.27%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	23	96	198
ATP
$17.72

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days
4/21/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,110	17,116	24.01%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.34

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	5	3	2	4	6,870
Seats Added	847	321	194	480	1,119,673
Seats Sold	2,119	1,831	1,560	2,251	98,230
4/21/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,884	105,991	1,121,515	9.45%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	4	25	99	205
ATP
$17.69

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

[keysersoze123]

Thanks @ZackM. FYI how Thor did in leading to final 10 days. Thor did allow early reactions around T-14. Now that we see some of them today, I wonder if the sales rate would be up starting tomorrow. Weekend's otherwise will slow down. 

 

[vafrow]

I like this move from Marvel. Both getting some early reactions out there and the IMAX giveaways. They needed to go on the offensive and get people talking about the movie.

 

It's still unlikely to right the ship in under 2 weeks, but at least stand behind the film and promote with everything you have.

 

I'm thinking the best case scenario is that daily sales this week stop sliding, and when official reviews come out, depending on where it lands, it can inch up a bit.

 

 

[Porthos]

On 4/22/2023 at 2:21 AM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26985	27700	715	2.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

4

 

T-27 Comp:

%

Sold T-27

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

45.00

22

1589

0/171

22195/23784

6.68%

33839

2.11%

8.10m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     103/10105  [1.02% sold]
Matinee:     14/3518  [0.40% | 1.96% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26977	27700	723	2.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

8

 

T-26 Comp:

%

Sold T-26

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

44.36

41

1630

0/171

22154/23784

6.85%

33839

2.14%

7.98m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     106/10105  [1.05% sold]
Matinee:     14/3518  [0.40% | 1.94% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 4/22/2023 at 2:22 AM, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	25377	29054	3677	12.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

83

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.64		216	10615		0/351	31821/42436	25.01%		21117	17.41%		12.47m
L&T	53.96		265	6814		0/228	24786/31600	21.56%		16962	21.68%		15.65m
Bats	86.74		152	4239		0/285	31225/35464	11.95%		11757	31.27%		18.74m
BP2	50.72		190	7250		2/296	29904/37154	19.51%		16800	21.89%		14.20m
AM3	75.19		123	4890		0/238	27904/32794	14.91%		10475	35.10%		13.16m
JWD	135.83		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		10966	33.53%		24.45m
TGM	85.19		261	4316		0/259	31617/35933	12.01%		11474	32.05%		16.41m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       713/11010  [6.48% sold]
Matinee:     111/3372  [3.29% | 3.02% of all tickets sold]
3D:            430/5457  [7.88% | 11.69% of all tickets sold]

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	203	25282	29054	3772	12.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

95

 

T-12 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.81		221	10836		0/351	31600/42436	25.53%		21117	17.86%		12.53m
L&T	54.02		168	6982		0/228	24618/31600	22.09%		16962	22.24%		15.67m
Bats	86.95		99	4338		0/285	31126/35464	12.23%		11757	32.08%		18.78m
BP2	50.86		166	7416		2/296	29738/37154	19.96%		16800	22.45%		14.24m
AM3	75.21		125	5015		0/238	27779/32794	15.29%		10475	36.01%		13.16m
JWD	134.14		105	2812		0/191	22562/25374	11.08%		10966	34.40%		24.15m
TGM	81.77		297	4613		0/259	31320/35933	12.84%		11474	32.87%		15.75m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       727/11010  [6.60% sold]
Matinee:    118/3372  [3.50% | 3.13% of all tickets sold]
3D:            447/5457  [8.19% | 11.85% of all tickets sold]

Edited April 23, 2023 by Porthos

[Eric Furiosa]

On 4/22/2023 at 6:05 AM, Eric Williams said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	3252	39919	8.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 46

 

Comp - T-14

1.699x of Black Widow (22.43M)

3.456x of Shang-Chi (30.41M)

2.083x of Eternals (19.79M)

0.333x of Doctor Strange 2 (12M)

0.582x of Thor 4 (16.88M)

0.448x of Black Panther 2 (12.55M)

0.763x of Ant-Man 3 (13.35M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	3295	39919	8.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 43

 

Comp - T-13

1.628x of Black Widow (21.49M)

3.369x of Shang-Chi (29.65M)

2.001x of Eternals (19.01M)

0.333x of Doctor Strange 2 (11.99M)

0.569x of Thor 4 (16.5M)

0.446x of Black Panther 2 (12.5M)

0.759x of Ant-Man 3 (13.28M)

[Eric Furiosa]

On 4/22/2023 at 6:11 AM, Eric Williams said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	491	17734	2.77%

 

Total Seats Sold the Past Two Days: 24

 

Comp - T-27

0.400x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.2M)

2.713x of Nope (17.36M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	495	17734	2.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp - T-26

0.394x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.1M)

2.735x of Nope (17.5M)

[THUNDER BIRD]

So how many days before Fast X breaks its cycle and actually sells seats in double digits.

[M37]

Sure do hope the early review embargo release and now these free screenings do help push a good number of people off the fence, because the numbers not only are looking bleak, with an unweighted average around $14.5M for Thursday, but trending down

 

 

Looking a little closer at pace, and its honestly even worse (credit to @keysersoze123 for banging the drum on this). The growth over the last week has been only slightly better than MoM, despite having just a third of the volume, and on par with AMWQ without the bigger initial fan rush. Continuing to trek in that range would project to 120-125K tickets sold for Alpha by T-7, and a finish in the ~250-260K range, or at or below $14M for Thursday. There's a very real possibility the OW here not only misses $100M, but begins with an 8 (and in the pessimistic case, maybe even a 7!)

 

As someone who has been - and still is to a degree - a little more optimistic about the potential of a more casual/GA audience here producing a stronger late kick (in terms of growth rate) than the more anticipated titles that came before, the data is the data, and the even more subtle trends one would want to see just aren't materializing. Can't escape feeling that we may be staring down another slow-motion crash, similar to not only AMWQ but perhaps even Shazam, where Fury of the Gods saw a 44% decline from the prior film's OW, in large part because of external factors, audiences just having moved on. That same reduction would be ~$82.5M OW for GOTG3, and that that outcome is entirely plausible with present numbers and trajectory.

OW Range: $80-105M

 

On a related noted, the potential is brewing for Disney to have a disaster of a year, as all of their major releases have some questions, and would not be shocking if every one missed the mark and came in well below early expectations

Edited April 23, 2023 by M37

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Sure do hope the early review embargo release and now these free screenings do help push a good number of people off the fence, because the numbers not only are looking bleak, with an unweighted average around $14.5M for Thursday, but trending down

 

 

Looking a little closer at pace, and its honestly even worse (credit to @keysersoze123 for banging the drum on this). The growth over the last week has been only slightly better than MoM, despite having just a third of the volume, and on par with AMWQ without the bigger initial fan rush. Continuing to trek in that range would project to 120-125K tickets sold for Alpha by T-7, and a finish in the ~250-260K range, or at or below $14M for Thursday. There's a very real possibility the OW here not only misses $100M, but begins with an 8 (and in the pessimistic case, maybe even a 7!)

 

As someone who has been - and still is to a degree - a little more optimistic about the potential of a more casual/GA audience here producing a stronger late kick (in terms of growth rate) than the more anticipated titles that came before, the data is the data, and the even more subtle trends one would want to see just aren't materializing. Honestly feels like we're just staring down another slow-motion crash, similar to not only AMWQ but perhaps even Shazam, where Fury of the Gods saw a 44% decline from the prior film's OW, in large part because of external factors, audiences just having moved on. That same reduction would be ~$82.5M OW for GOTG3, and that that outcome is entirely plausible with present numbers and trajectory.

OW Range: $80-105M

 

On a related noted, the potential is brewing for Disney to have a disaster of a year, as all of their major releases have some questions, and would not be shocking if every one missed the mark and came in well below early expectations

 

Under 100M OW would already be a true disaster.

 

Under 90M would be a real catastrophe. I have a hard time imagining GOTG 3 could fall down THAT hard, but i wont be sitting here questioning your data. I also hope that the early screenings will prove to initiate a late sales surge, but all of this paints a really grim picture.

[vafrow]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

Sure do hope the early review embargo release and now these free screenings do help push a good number of people off the fence, because the numbers not only are looking bleak, with an unweighted average around $14.5M for Thursday, but trending down

 

 

Looking a little closer at pace, and its honestly even worse (credit to @keysersoze123 for banging the drum on this). The growth over the last week has been only slightly better than MoM, despite having just a third of the volume, and on par with AMWQ without the bigger initial fan rush. Continuing to trek in that range would project to 120-125K tickets sold for Alpha by T-7, and a finish in the ~250-260K range, or at or below $14M for Thursday. There's a very real possibility the OW here not only misses $100M, but begins with an 8 (and in the pessimistic case, maybe even a 7!)

 

As someone who has been - and still is to a degree - a little more optimistic about the potential of a more casual/GA audience here producing a stronger late kick (in terms of growth rate) than the more anticipated titles that came before, the data is the data, and the even more subtle trends one would want to see just aren't materializing. Honestly feels like we're just staring down another slow-motion crash, similar to not only AMWQ but perhaps even Shazam, where Fury of the Gods saw a 44% decline from the prior film's OW, in large part because of external factors, audiences just having moved on. That same reduction would be ~$82.5M OW for GOTG3, and that that outcome is entirely plausible with present numbers and trajectory.

OW Range: $80-105M

 

On a related noted, the potential is brewing for Disney to have a disaster of a year, as all of their major releases have some questions, and would not be shocking if every one missed the mark and came in well below early expectations

 

Excellent analysis. And the last part of this being one of a series of hits against Disney this year rings really true and is one of the reasons why I feel fascinated by this whole thing.

 

Even Fast X doing poorly feels like it's a part of a cultural change against the key franchises of the 2010s. 

 

Guardians opening below Antman, or, worse, in a sub 100 range (and i agree that you can't rule out something in the $80M range) is really going to garner a lot of headlines.

 

People could rationalize Antman or Shazam bombing. There will be no other explanation for Guardians other than maybe people are tired of this genre.

[Sckathian]

34 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Under 100M OW would already be a true disaster.

 

Under 90M would be a real catastrophe. I have a hard time imagining GOTG 3 could fall down THAT hard, but i wont be sitting here questioning your data. I also hope that the early screenings will prove to initiate a late sales surge, but all of this paints a really grim picture.

Think I keep coming back to is its been fucking years since the last one. It might have just been too long. Could be a Gremlins situation. That bad.

[M37]

4 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

Under 100M OW would already be a true disaster.

 

Under 90M would be a real catastrophe. I have a hard time imagining GOTG 3 could fall down THAT hard, but i wont be sitting here questioning your data. I also hope that the early screenings will prove to initiate a late sales surge, but all of this paints a really grim picture.

Even if GOTG3 ultimately ends up at $90M+ or even $100M+, wanted to plant a flag at how low the floor has become with present data. I personally don't think that will happen, from my own gut feeling to it being Fandango's most anticipated movie of 2023, but rather to caution how much of a course correction is needed from present standing to even get to what most would consider "disappointing" range

 

GOTG3 OW vs GOTG OW ($94.3M) would be an interesting club to open right now ...

Edited April 23, 2023 by M37

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Even if GOTG3 ultimately ends up at $90M+ or even $100M+, wanted to plant a flag at how low the floor has become is with present data. I personally don't think that will happen, from my own gut feeling to it being Fandango's most anticipated movie of 2023, but rather to caution how much of a course correction is needed from present standing to even get to what most would consider "disappointing" range

 

GOTG3 OW vs GOTG OW ($94.3M) would be an interesting club to open right now ...

 

But that original survey was pre-Ant Man 3 and pre Kang catastrophe - and pre GOTG 3 marketing and awareness of the movie.

 

I'm with you on now being fascinated how low all this can go.  After I banged the drum the last few months that GA were not flocking to grim and dark...we seem like we're getting grim and dark from a superhero set known for abject fun and 80s music.  An interesting choice made in the current environment, although I guess the story choice was made before seeing how GA was reacting...

 

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[keysersoze123]

Great post @M37 I think pace is more telling that absolute number alone. Ant 3 also after a great start had terrible pacing and ultimately fell off after bad reviews. Question is what will Guardians do with way stronger reviews/reactions from fan screenings. 

 

That said I am not seeing NWH kind of reviews. Something about the movie might turn of certain reviewers. We will know next week for sure. 

 

FYI numbers from yesterday evening

 

Guardians MTC1

Friday - 63341/1273748 1143956.39 6906 shows

Saturday - 62088/1335572 1028208.48 7251 shows

 

its still little bit below 60% of previews. Pace is on par or slightly below previews. I expect saturday sales to exceed friday in the final week. So the movie should increase say 20% minus previews on saturday. 

 

Comps Thor friday (T-11) -118,787 and Ant 3 Friday (T-12) - 91386. Thor/Ant 3 pacing was 2.5x+ Guardians as the reactions were out by now. Ant 3 Sat(T-12) - 85306. So only good news is Saturday number relative to Friday is strongest for Guardians. 

 

One bad news is we lost MTC2. Its just not working. So one data point lost :-(

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But that original survey was pre-Ant Man 3 and pre Kang catastrophe - and pre GOTG 3 marketing and awareness of the movie.

 

I'm with you on now being fascinated how low all this can go.  After I banged the drum the last few months that GA were not flocking to grim and dark...we seem like we're getting grim and dark from a superhero set known for abject fun and 80s music.  An interesting choice made in the current environment, although I guess the story choice was made before seeing how GA was reacting...

 

 

 

I think it's tough to label this as grim and dark at this stage. A movie can tackle darker subjects without it taking over the whole tone of the film. It's been the hallmark of Spiderman films to do so, and that's the model family friendly superhero character.

 

Whatever happens with regards to the box office of this film, it's important to note it's happening completely independently to the actual film. It's underperformed from the jump, long before any reviews came out.

 

You can argue that the film doesn't offer any new elements to drive interest. Captain America 3 became an quasi Avengers film. Thor 3 became a Hulk crossover. Maybe that was needed here. In retrospect, the logical thing might have been to combine Thor 4 and GOTG3 like Endgame had teased. But, it didn't really provide Love and Thunder much of a boost even if it was teased in trailers.

 

We're a few weeks away from Across the Spiderverse advance tickets and then The Flash. Both of those will be critical data to understand what within the genre is still getting people excited. 

[oenri]

Haven't the early reactions helped the pre sales at all?

[JustLurking]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Sure do hope the early review embargo release and now these free screenings do help push a good number of people off the fence, because the numbers not only are looking bleak, with an unweighted average around $14.5M for Thursday, but trending down

 

 

Looking a little closer at pace, and its honestly even worse (credit to @keysersoze123 for banging the drum on this). The growth over the last week has been only slightly better than MoM, despite having just a third of the volume, and on par with AMWQ without the bigger initial fan rush. Continuing to trek in that range would project to 120-125K tickets sold for Alpha by T-7, and a finish in the ~250-260K range, or at or below $14M for Thursday. There's a very real possibility the OW here not only misses $100M, but begins with an 8 (and in the pessimistic case, maybe even a 7!)

 

As someone who has been - and still is to a degree - a little more optimistic about the potential of a more casual/GA audience here producing a stronger late kick (in terms of growth rate) than the more anticipated titles that came before, the data is the data, and the even more subtle trends one would want to see just aren't materializing. Can't escape feeling that we may be staring down another slow-motion crash, similar to not only AMWQ but perhaps even Shazam, where Fury of the Gods saw a 44% decline from the prior film's OW, in large part because of external factors, audiences just having moved on. That same reduction would be ~$82.5M OW for GOTG3, and that that outcome is entirely plausible with present numbers and trajectory.

OW Range: $80-105M

 

On a related noted, the potential is brewing for Disney to have a disaster of a year, as all of their major releases have some questions, and would not be shocking if every one missed the mark and came in well below early expectations

The good news here is that Disney is clearly not having any of WB's "dead fish in the water" approach of just letting it tank and they're trying to use the likely strong reception to the film to build it up, which is why I think this will land in the upper range of that (which would still be bad bad, mind you), but this really does put into perspective nicely just how completely terrible the numbers have been...

 

And as for the last point, Disney has so many problems on their hands, it is unreal...they have destroyed their/pixar's animated films at the BO through D+, the MCU is struggling, and they haven't been able to bring back SW to theaters in years! The only positive note for them as of late is the Avatar franchise, which they can't really milk in the same way...TLM and elementals/wish are going to really need to work, as if those do poorly too, it's hard to see what is going right for the mouse atm

[Jonwo]

I do think the doom and gloom surrounding Disney is a little unwarranted. Even if their film slate is not at the highs of 2019, they're in decent shape overall and honestly they've been through worse in their history. 

 

I'm not going to go on about Pixar because I've already been told off about it but I think their upcoming originals look very promising.