Christmas Weekend Thread (24-26 Dec). No Way Home (84.5m) | Matrix (22.5m 5 day) | Sing 2 (39.4m 5 day)

[M37]

49 minutes ago, john2000 said:

Its probably what the @EmpireCity said many people couldnt gather last christmas bc there were lockdowns something that doesnt apply this year, other than that the sat increases in general have been weak this year.Aside from that it maybe normal its the first weekend that the christmas fall on sat i think and yesterdays decreases % wise were very normal so....

Worth noting we saw the opposite effect on Thanksgiving day, where numbers were higher than expected (relative to the normal pattern), with muted increases Th/Fri 

 

Just feels like for one week, largely due to the draw for NWH, people forgot about the pandemic and flocked to cinemas, and now we’re reverting to the weaker baseline. I wouldn’t be too bullish on anything moving forward 

[Tokugennumataka]

The absolute scenes here if MOTM opens above the domestic total of DS1. 

[cannastop]

7 hours ago, JonahVex said:

Speaking of Avatar, I really wish it hadn't been delayed to 22, an Avatar vs NWH holidays would have been incredible to follow

yeah the studios would never do that

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Worth noting we saw the opposite effect on Thanksgiving day, where numbers were higher than expected (relative to the normal pattern), with muted increases Th/Fri 

 

Just feels like for one week, largely due to the draw for NWH, people forgot about the pandemic and flocked to cinemas, and now we’re reverting to the weaker baseline. I wouldn’t be too bullish on anything moving forward 

I dont think so ,at least not yet see the uk for example or other countries spidey continues to do very good you maybe right of course but i dont think that people can change their behaviour that quickly in only 1 week at least thats not the vibe i am getting.

[Maggie]

SO, Spidey is frontloaded?

[Cooper Legion]

🙄

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, Product Driven Legion said:

2022 has no chance to fulfill the simultaneous DOM and top 3 dream. Maybe 2023? Pretty hard to imagine Quantumania topping Fast10 and TLM. Maybe if they swap BP2 and Quantumania, LOL

uhh what does this mean

[TwoMisfits]

So, in good news for box office, 2021 domestic will be more than double 2020 domestic. 

 

And as I destroy Lao Tzu's quote, "A journey of 1000 miles begins with a single step"...box office was nothing last March 2020, and it's gonna be a long path to normality and then beyond.  

 

We've definitely seen the box office take some positive steps this year.  The Spidey open took a leap back to normality.  So, we're getting there.  

 

2022 will continue the path - Sony and Paramount would be wise to leave their January movies in place and let us continue the path, b/c domestic US will continue to deliver box office for 13-45 male driven movies b/c that's already recovered.  And Morbius especially (but Scream, too) will play very strongly in that "coming to the theater" demo, so let the industry keep recovering with the product that has been aiding the recovery... 

Edited December 26, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Gavin Feng]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

SO, Spidey is frontloaded?

 

 

I never expect it would get 3* multiple ($780M+), maybe not even 2.75* ($715M) despite DEC release & A+ grade. That's not because I am conservative but because I have seen the limitation of analysis rely on historical data.

 

In 2019, we already saw how Avengers: Endgame ran in box office with A+ grade. Many folks, incl myself, thought the movie had a shot to top The Force Awakens (2.62*) after its opening weekend. But it turned out that A+ is not everything. Many believed there was no way that DEC legs could be under 3.0* even if controversial comments were there, until recent SW movies. With all these "accidents", it's obviously that things are changing.

 

From a more subjective perspective, I don't think we should've been that surprised on these numbers. After seeing the movie in Macao, I doubt the movie is really that special that deserve to smash every record. The experience in cinema is wonderful especially those scenes fans have expected for a year. But the way they honor it is really meh. I even think some fan-fade works can create better moments if I could see them on big screen for the first time. I know that personal senses are not good argument on box office analysis, but it really failed to bring me those those emotions that Avatar, Endgame even The Force Awakens (I'm not a big SW fans) did, or make me believe it would hit that level.

 

At least for event movies, box office may never ever work like what we believed based on previous numbers. I think it's time for us to stop being "empiricist"

[Gavin Feng]

In terms of absolute hold, nearly 70% second weekend drop is definitely not good. But in terms of volume, $80M is a amazing performance. Remember, only 3 movies this year made that much on their opening weekend.

[Torontofan]

I think it will hold fine from 26 to Jan 3rd.

[john2000]

8 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

In terms of absolute hold, nearly 70% second weekend drop is definitely not good. But in terms of volume, $80M is a amazing performance. Remember, only 3 movies this year made that much on their opening weekend.

more like 67,5% drop in line with last jedi , though again important to remember that we do not have any comparison as none of the previous dec movies released in a calendar like spidey did.I also dont think that 85 mill is that amazing either , as none of the 2021 movies pandemic or not had the potential that spidey has.

Edited December 26, 2021 by john2000

[YM!]

If anyone says NWH’s run is disappointing if it doesn’t reach 700m is just being ridiculous. In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, the fact that this opened to $260m+ and will probably finish $680m+ is pretty damn impressive. (A $700m total is still very likely especially as the big test for numbers is this week) Especially considering most of us including myself thought the pandemic would hinder box office optimism for it.

 

However that said we’re still in a pandemic. I do think calendar configuration is a big culprit but I do think fears of Omicron probably helped cause legs to be weaker. Sure,

the target 18-34 demographic likely doesn’t give a shit but for families and older audiences it’s more concerning. And they help drive the Christmas and holiday legs. We’re probably not going to see normal numbers for everything apart from a few exceptions until Q4 2022, because whether we like it or not, the pandemic exists and they’re still a lot of people hesitant about moviegoing. 

 

I also think (and I’m going to get disbeliefs, not cools and WTFs for it), the MCU in particular the event movies like NWH are starting to get more frontloaded, mainly in order to avoid spoilers as the 18-34 demographic is much more spoiler averse and the insistence that every MCU film post NWH looks looks shaping up some sort of crossover event and want to see it the first weekend as well as the other demographics like families and the occasional women which helps the MCU aren’t in full return. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if MoM opened to $175m+ but then had legs like Civil War despite weaker competition. I think they’ll naturally be some exceptions as Shang-Chi is an obvious one and I think onward my guesses for the MCU films with stronger legs are probably Wakanda Forever, Quantumania and Blade, as not only are these films should be when the pandemic eases up but the audience to boost the legs will help (Quantumania being families), one being a solo and the former likely being the big conversation piece next year.

Edited December 26, 2021 by YourMother

[Michael Gary Scott]

9 hours ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

We just wanted something to finally crush that derivative Star Wars movie that currently holds the domestic record.....

 

  Reveal hidden contents

I only said this to agitate the lovely Porthos! 

 

I didn't 

[cheesypoofs]

I want to wait and see what weekday legs look like. I think it was just the timing of having Christmas Eve and Christmas land on a Friday and Saturday. I think people just wanted to be with family this year instead of going to the movies. I think it'll be fine moving forward

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, cheesypoofs said:

I want to wait and see what weekday legs look like. I think it was just the timing of having Christmas Eve and Christmas land on a Friday and Saturday. I think people just wanted to be with family this year instead of going to the movies. I think it'll be fine moving forward

True, the truth is that at this point we cannot say for sure what kind of legs the movie will end up having.Its not like the movie has released on jan or something , there we could compare it to iw per say but now with the holidays....

Edited December 26, 2021 by john2000

[Daxtreme]

5 hours ago, baumer said:

Just a friendly reminder once again that even though Canada is small we still account for around 10-13% of the box office in North america. Our theaters here are down to 50% capacity by government order and there's no concessions that are being served also because of government order. There is rapid tests here that need to be taken and they limited family gatherings to 10 people or less indoors. The government here is trying to scare the shit out of everybody and it seems to be working and unfortunately that is affecting movie going. If Omicron hadn't happened I think the daily grosses for everything but especially no way home would be at least 10% bigger. So for example with Spider-Man is doing 30 million on Christmas Day I think it could have done like 33 if the restrictions here for the cinemas weren't put in place.

 

So just keep that in mind before starting your discussion about how the numbers are disappointing.

 

5 hours ago, baumer said:

RTH used to do a mini theater breakdown for us by telling us what the top 10 grossing cinemas were in North America for any given weekend. Sometimes he would do the top 20 and often a couple of theaters in Toronto and one in Calgary would come in the top 20 and sometimes the top 10.

 

I was also vaguely aware that the province of Quebec, which is the second biggest one in Canada by population, contributed significantly to the box office. Unfortunately the province of Quebec is being hit the hardest with restrictions right now and it's obviously affecting movie going. So I think the Canadian box office is a very significant factor as to why the numbers are not increasing the way they should be.

 

Hit harder indeed. All theaters closed 

 

I remember seeing the CPLX Scotia Bank Montreal in the top grossing theaters once in a while. Nothing outside of MTL though.

 

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

% is varying for different films. For Bond you can be 15-20% as well, for Star Wars 10%+ while MCU can be under 10%.

 

Also its full run that Canada come around 10%, for opening weekend, the ratio is around 7-8% for MCU.

 

Interesting, thanks for the info!

 

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Oh we have a Canada box office thread @baumer

 

 

 

 

 

[Torontofan]

Christmas was canceled last year in my area.

This year seemed everyone was with family this Xmas.

[Cooper Legion]

50 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

In terms of absolute hold, nearly 70% second weekend drop is definitely not good. But in terms of volume, $80M is a amazing performance. Remember, only 3 movies this year made that much on their opening weekend.

What use is the comparison to other movies this year supposed to have when there weren’t any other big movies this year?

[Cooper Legion]

36 minutes ago, YourMother said:

If anyone says NWH’s run is disappointing if it doesn’t reach 700m is just being ridiculous.

If NWH doesn’t reach 700 the legs will be extremely disappointing, verging on pathetic.