Super Bowl/Valentine's Weekend Thread | Nile 1.1M Previews, Marry Me 525K

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I know 2 people who saw Don't Worry, Darling and both said it was very good

 

I'm just a messenger. Gold Derby and Awards Worthy got the wind that it didn't do well. I have no dog in this fight. 

[lorddemaxus]

My Moonfall screening rn is somehow half full. More people here than when I saw Ghostbusters Afterlife opening weekend.

[Fielding]

On 2/12/2022 at 7:54 AM, Eric Poirot said:

Rumor has it (unconfirmed of course) that Bruce Willis, while not officially diagnosed with dementia, has been going through some bad mental and memory issues over the past couple of years that could lead into something worse. Him doing cheap VOD action movies where he shows up on set for a day and gets a fat paycheck is probably the best he can do as an actor and helps support his family.

 

https://okmagazine.com/p/bruce-willis-truce-family-fading-on-set-memory-loss/

I think there's something to this. In 2015 he was let go from Cafe Society and replaced with Steve Carrell because he couldn't remember his lines.

[EmpireCity]

If the large Super Bowl party that I was at is any indication, The Lost City is going to be the movie that brings a ton of women back to the theaters.  Also, the reaction to Jurassic World: Dominion from young and old, male and female, was off the charts.  

[Valonqar]

I didn't pay attention to Lost City at all but thanks to your post I checked the trailer out and laughed all the way through. terrific stuff, will be a huge hit.

 

Dominion will dominate. Baby Blue 4TW! 

[Joyous Legion]

When I went to see Nile with my dad yesterday he was talking in the car about how he was interested in seeing dominion… and has never seen JP2, JP3, JW, or JW2. Also had the biggest reaction to Lost City of the trailers.

[lorddemaxus]

Should start a Lost City > Sonic 2 club maybe.

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Should start a Lost City > Sonic 2 club maybe.

Why not? 

[charlie Jatinder]

Paramount having a great year. If AQP2 was this year, might have done $1B DOM in calender year.

[Maggie]

12 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Should start a Lost City > Sonic 2 club maybe.

Not gonna happen imo. The Lost City around 20M OW

[druv10]

NWH with better than expected Sunday hold!

 

7.5M weekend (-21%)

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, druv10 said:

NWH with better than expected Sunday hold!

 

7.5M weekend (-21%)

Avatar dies tonight

[Borobudur]

5 minutes ago, druv10 said:

NWH with better than expected Sunday hold!

 

7.5M weekend (-21%)

Maybe valentine eve soften Super bowl impact. 

[Tokugennumataka]

Next weekend's definitely going over 7M.

[Tokugennumataka]

10 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Avatar dies tonight

Seemed nearly impossible at the end of second weekend, yet here we are. 

[titanic2187]

22 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

ERC has leaned into some sort of "box office with attitude" persona that works for Twitter engagement, I guess. I find all their takes to be harsh if not outright wrong and uniformly worthless. I wasn't in love with Licorice Pizza but if you read ERC's weekly takes, it's been the worst flop ever for a couple of months. Except the part where it's ultimately not going to make significantly less than the average PTA movie did before the pandemic, which IMO is a huge win, considering the overall box office landscape for adult dramas since 2020.

 

 

 

I am quite confident in a alternate reality when covid never happened, licorice pizza box office can come in near 50m like lady bird, it is by far the most accessible film from Paul Thomas anderson. Despite some terrible jump after the expansion, the hold seem suggest a very solid word of mouth

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

I am quite confident in a alternate reality when covid never happened, licorice pizza box office can come in near 50m like lady bird, it is by far the most accessible film from Paul Thomas anderson. Despite some terrible jump after the expansion, the hold seem suggest a very solid word of mouth

Pretty much every other awards hopeful would've made more Pre-Covid (IMO even things like The Last Duel would still lost money but flopped less), so it stands to reason that the prestige movies doing relatively okay now could have been bigger hits in different circumstances. PTA's fanbase overlaps with the demos that have mostly returned to theaters; I wonder if the WOM for Licorice Pizza would be worse if the full awards watching audience  had come back already.

 

 

 

I watched Marry Me on Peacock Premium (thanks Cox Cable) and it's Notting Hill with a singer, but 2022 Owen Wilson is no 1999 Hugh Grant. It's not the worst rom-com I've ever seen and would've made a decent follow-up to Monster-in-Law. Marry Me never tried to pretend JLo was still 28 or whatever, but it's a scenario easier to buy with somewhat younger people. Though with the way Bennifer 2.0 has played out, maybe it's not totally unrealistic for a pampered pop diva?

[Krissykins]

Some other films were underestimated too, Death on the Nile was $12.9m and Scream only fell 38%

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

8 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I am quite confident in a alternate reality when covid never happened, licorice pizza box office can come in near 50m like lady bird, it is by far the most accessible film from Paul Thomas anderson. Despite some terrible jump after the expansion, the hold seem suggest a very solid word of mouth

It would have, there's literally no reason otherwise. 30-40m is the range for top Oscar contenders pre-COVID. I mean, it's going to finish near Phantom Thread's 21m anyway. 

 

Last Duel probably does 30-40m. Gucci 70-80m if not more. At least 90m for West Side Story. 35-40m for Belfast like Philomena, Brooklyn, Theory of Everything, etc. 150+ for Dune. 15m for CODA.

[Borobudur]

Kingsman and GB:A drop >65%, finally both movies come down from the superb hold they had been enjoying since new year holiday.