Super Bowl/Valentine's Weekend Thread | Nile 1.1M Previews, Marry Me 525K

[Maggie]

Just now, PenguinXXR said:

Question

What's everyone's expectation/hope for trailers today? Besides LOTR Rings of Power which we know we're getting, do we know of anything else or have any more rumors of drops?

 

@Eric Poirot do we get a thread for the Super Bowl?

[LPLC]

9 hours ago, LPLC said:

I think 60% drop on Sunday

$1,85M + $3,8M + $1,5M = $7,15M

$759M by Sunday 

Nice 

[Eric Furiosa]

13 minutes ago, Maggie said:

@Eric Poirot do we get a thread for the Super Bowl?

Just put it up right before I read this lol

[Grebacio]

16 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

Question

What's everyone's expectation/hope for trailers today? Besides LOTR Rings of Power which we know we're getting, do we know of anything else or have any more rumors of drops?

 

Sonic and The Lost City spots already got released online. I expect Paramount will get one more for Top Gun

 

For Universal I expect 30 seconds versions of Nope and Jurassic World recent trailers, with the addition of Minions and Ambulance spots

 

For Disney I expect Doctor Strange, Lighyear and a Disney Plus Sizzle Reel.

 

For Warner, only the 60secs clip of their DC movies that got released on Friday

 

Netflix, maybe a Stranger Things S04 teaser

 

And nothing from Sony

 

 

 

[That One Girl]

 

#DriveMyCarSweep

[AdrianL]

I feel like Death on the Nile will have good legs. It's a decent movie and the opening wasn't that bad, would've been over Gucci's 3-day without Super Bowl. It can play throughout March with nothing besides Batman if it manages to keep theaters. 

[titanic2187]

33 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

#DriveMyCarSweep

It is actually very terrible PTA across, I don’t remember seeing Oscar best picture nominees recorded sub 1000 PTA at this scale.  They almost always come above $1000 , some even hit $2000 despite theatre count expansion after the announcement. This alone suggest that covid + streaming destroy at least half of the moviegoing crowd.

[filmlover]

19 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It is actually very terrible PTA across, I don’t remember seeing Oscar best picture nominees recorded sub 1000 PTA at this scale.  They almost always come above $1000 , some even hit $2000 despite theatre count expansion after the announcement. This alone suggest that covid + streaming destroy at least half of the moviegoing crowd.

Belfast and Nightmare Alley can be watched at home (for free via subscription on two services in the case of the latter), West Side Story maintained its average but lost a couple of hundred theaters due to new product arriving (earlier in the week it was reported that it and Nightmare Alley would gain a lot of theaters this weekend but as it turns out they lost a nice chunk of them instead), and Licorice Pizza was always gonna struggle outside of metropolitan areas, where it was playing for the most part before its expansion this weekend. Luckily aside from Batmania in three weeks there's not gonna be a whole lot of new product for theaters between now and the ceremony on March 27.

Edited February 13, 2022 by filmlover

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I think the main problem is Oscar noms happened during Super Bowl weekend. And there's 2 adult-skewing movies so the audiences are spread thin. Hopefully they hold onto enough theaters until March. Wanted Licorice Pizza to reach 20million but at least it's still gonna pass French Dispatch and should still finish ahead of King Richard

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

46 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Belfast and Nightmare Alley can be watched at home (for free via subscription on two services in the case of the latter), West Side Story maintained its average but lost a couple of hundred theaters due to new product arriving (earlier in the week it was reported that it and Nightmare Alley would gain a lot of theaters this weekend but as it turns out they lost a nice chunk of them instead), and Licorice Pizza was always gonna struggle outside of metropolitan areas, where it was playing for the most part before its expansion this weekend. Luckily aside from Batmania in three weeks there's not gonna be a whole lot of new product for theaters between now and the ceremony on March 27.

ERC has leaned into some sort of "box office with attitude" persona that works for Twitter engagement, I guess. I find all their takes to be harsh if not outright wrong and uniformly worthless. I wasn't in love with Licorice Pizza but if you read ERC's weekly takes, it's been the worst flop ever for a couple of months. Except the part where it's ultimately not going to make significantly less than the average PTA movie did before the pandemic, which IMO is a huge win, considering the overall box office landscape for adult dramas since 2020.

 

 

 

Edited February 13, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

ERC is just an ass. He's a nobody with a twitter account. He's not some insider. Only reason he has any clout is because he's weaponized snark and arrogance without intelligence or stats. No idea why he's constantly mentioned here

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

 

 

Big drop for Jackass. 

It's really not when you factor in the Super Bowl drop. Would be closer to 60% probably, not far off of 3D's 2nd weekend (-58%) or Scream's 2nd weekend (-59%). Will hold decently Monday, I'm sure

[Eric Furiosa]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It's really not when you factor in the Super Bowl drop. Would be closer to 60% probably, not far off of 3D's 2nd weekend (-58%) or Scream's 2nd weekend (-59%). Will hold decently Monday, I'm sure

That sounds like a very interesting Valentine's date 🤣

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

It is actually very terrible PTA across, I don’t remember seeing Oscar best picture nominees recorded sub 1000 PTA at this scale.  They almost always come above $1000 , some even hit $2000 despite theatre count expansion after the announcement. This alone suggest that covid + streaming destroy at least half of the moviegoing crowd.

 

I said they should have nominated Spidey vs the bad "message" movies, since it was such a sparse and poor year for great movies...the 10 nominees, some of which are objectively bad, signaled to people not in NY/LA that they didn't need to care about any of the movies this year, and they aren't...

 

I mean, Cinemark is gonna offer a $35 pass in March to see all the movies again...if Spidey was in that, I guarantee they'd sell all their passes, but now I doubt they get more than a couple dozen folks to buy it...

[Webslinger]

Meh, I just don't think there was ever going to be a lot of interest in the theatrical Oscar movies this year. As we seem to discuss any time a huge event movie opens and/or any time a critically acclaimed commercial play fails to reach box office expectations, it very much feels like a lot of average moviegoers just aren't showing up for anything that isn't "big screen spectacle." The fact that films also basically have just one weekend to prove themselves before being branded as disastrous flops - a wild paradox given how bare the release schedule has been at various points in the past year - also doesn't help matters in terms of driving people out to the cinema. Lots of people equate financial success with quality, so why go see that boring, stuffy West Side Story remake if the headlines surrounding it are saying that it's a dud?

 

Of course, this whole reductive thing is pretty annoying when one considers that many of this year's theatrical nominees actually look gorgeous and have the kind of sound mix that definitely benefits from being seen in a cinematic setting rather than at home. Even a film like Licorice Pizza - which probably "just" seems like a small period comedy that could be watched at home without losing anything - looks great on a big screen because it's a PTA film, so of course it does. But striking cinematography and intricate sound mixes take time to appreciate, and that's a tough sell to viewers who have internalized a strict definition of what qualifies as a "theater movie" and what doesn't, or who have internalized the false narrative that awards season movies are stuffy bores that only the mean old critics and film snobs could love.

 

Now, none of this is to say that I begrudge No Way Home any of its massive success - I feel like my choice of username tells you where I stand on this cinematic property, even if it's one I first picked as a teenager in the mid-2000s - but I do wish that there was still the kind of space and interest that existed for awards movies even as little as 9 years ago, when most of the Best Picture lineup pulled in huge business.

[SLAM!]

3 hours ago, PenguinXXR said:

Question

What's everyone's expectation/hope for trailers today? Besides LOTR Rings of Power which we know we're getting, do we know of anything else or have any more rumors of drops?

Mine is a long shot, but I’m hoping for a super bowl trailer for Lionsgate’s Borderlands movie. It finished filming last June so the timing checks out, and it’s Lionsgate’s only film that really makes sense for them to use (maybe besides the Nic Cage comedy).

[CJohn]

Very sad for the Oscar stuff as well. Horrendous PTAs for everything. I was expecting much more from Licorice. Not even 1M is a disaster.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

32 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

Meh, I just don't think there was ever going to be a lot of interest in the theatrical Oscar movies this year. As we seem to discuss any time a huge event movie opens and/or any time a critically acclaimed commercial play fails to reach box office expectations, it very much feels like a lot of average moviegoers just aren't showing up for anything that isn't "big screen spectacle." The fact that films also basically have just one weekend to prove themselves before being branded as disastrous flops - a wild paradox given how bare the release schedule has been at various points in the past year - also doesn't help matters in terms of driving people out to the cinema. Lots of people equate financial success with quality, so why go see that boring, stuffy West Side Story remake if the headlines surrounding it are saying that it's a dud?

 

Of course, this whole reductive thing is pretty annoying when one considers that many of this year's theatrical nominees actually look gorgeous and have the kind of sound mix that definitely benefits from being seen in a cinematic setting rather than at home. Even a film like Licorice Pizza - which probably "just" seems like a small period comedy that could be watched at home without losing anything - looks great on a big screen because it's a PTA film, so of course it does. But striking cinematography and intricate sound mixes take time to appreciate, and that's a tough sell to viewers who have internalized a strict definition of what qualifies as a "theater movie" and what doesn't, or who have internalized the false narrative that awards season movies are stuffy bores that only the mean old critics and film snobs could love.

 

Now, none of this is to say that I begrudge No Way Home any of its massive success - I feel like my choice of username tells you where I stand on this cinematic property, even if it's one I first picked as a teenager in the mid-2000s - but I do wish that there was still the kind of space and interest that existed for awards movies even as little as 9 years ago, when most of the Best Picture lineup pulled in huge business.

Oscar movies have annually done well yearly pre-COVID. I don't see why this year would be different with the regular circumstances. Would Licorice Pizza really do any different than say Manchester By the Sea, Lady Bird, or Jojo Rabbit? (30-40m). Without Netflix, Don't Look Up would have been closer to Big Short than Vice, if not higher considering Leo's star power. A Spielberg musical should have done at least 90million. CODA would have been a solid summer sleeper like The Farewell

 

I just think the pandemic completely damaged the support of these movies. And this weekend, they're expanding alongside other dramas appealing to same fractured adult demographic. Which is SUPER BOWL WEEKEND. 

[Eric Furiosa]

51 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

Meh, I just don't think there was ever going to be a lot of interest in the theatrical Oscar movies this year. As we seem to discuss any time a huge event movie opens and/or any time a critically acclaimed commercial play fails to reach box office expectations, it very much feels like a lot of average moviegoers just aren't showing up for anything that isn't "big screen spectacle." The fact that films also basically have just one weekend to prove themselves before being branded as disastrous flops - a wild paradox given how bare the release schedule has been at various points in the past year - also doesn't help matters in terms of driving people out to the cinema. Lots of people equate financial success with quality, so why go see that boring, stuffy West Side Story remake if the headlines surrounding it are saying that it's a dud?

 

Of course, this whole reductive thing is pretty annoying when one considers that many of this year's theatrical nominees actually look gorgeous and have the kind of sound mix that definitely benefits from being seen in a cinematic setting rather than at home. Even a film like Licorice Pizza - which probably "just" seems like a small period comedy that could be watched at home without losing anything - looks great on a big screen because it's a PTA film, so of course it does. But striking cinematography and intricate sound mixes take time to appreciate, and that's a tough sell to viewers who have internalized a strict definition of what qualifies as a "theater movie" and what doesn't, or who have internalized the false narrative that awards season movies are stuffy bores that only the mean old critics and film snobs could love.

 

Now, none of this is to say that I begrudge No Way Home any of its massive success - I feel like my choice of username tells you where I stand on this cinematic property, even if it's one I first picked as a teenager in the mid-2000s - but I do wish that there was still the kind of space and interest that existed for awards movies even as little as 9 years ago, when most of the Best Picture lineup pulled in huge business.

 

10 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Oscar movies have annually done well yearly pre-COVID. I don't see why this year would be different with the regular circumstances. Would Licorice Pizza really do any different than say Manchester By the Sea, Lady Bird, or Jojo Rabbit? (30-40m). Without Netflix, Don't Look Up would have been closer to Big Short than Vice, if not higher considering Leo's star power. A Spielberg musical should have done at least 90million. CODA would have been a solid summer sleeper like The Farewell

 

I just think the pandemic completely damaged the support of these movies. And this weekend, they're expanding alongside other dramas appealing to same fractured adult demographic. Which is SUPER BOWL WEEKEND. 

Been telling y'all for a while that audiences have given up on anything that ain't cheap thrills. Anything that isn't designed to sell toys or start a shared universe is too pretentious for them. It was a slow burn of course, but 2021 was the nadir, the period where nothing finds success, and there's no turning back anymore. It'll only get worse from here, especially when the Academy gives up and forces themselves to nominate all the populist blockbusters to stay relevant.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

9 minutes ago, Eric Poirot said:

 

Been telling y'all for a while that audiences have given up on anything that ain't cheap thrills. Anything that isn't designed to sell toys or start a shared universe is too pretentious for them. It was a slow burn of course, but 2021 was the nadir, the period where nothing finds success, and there's no turning back anymore. It'll only get worse from here, especially when the Academy gives up and forces themselves to nominate all the populist blockbusters to stay relevant.

Elvis has potential but kinda feels like the David O. Russell movie is the last hope. A director who had a good track record, an all-star cast, November release. But so many variables. Will it be another Joy? Can a completely original drama be properly marketed by Disney?

 

(I fully expect Babylon to bomb hard, though. A movie about silent era filmmaking? Yeah, good luck)