AMERICA CHAVEZ IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS WEEKEND THREAD | Aka carbonara civil war thread | 187.42M OW

[exomassey]

2 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

Not a good sign for thor 4. BP2 should definitely do more.

What are you even talking about? This has nothing to do with Thor 4. 
 

[Taruseth]

22 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Well its not as simple as that now

GOTG2 39M was from 42M FRI here 39M is from 54M FRI. 93% vs 72%. That right there is ~20% worse trending adj for Mother's day. 

BvS was down 37% from Friday. DS2 is only down 28 % from Friday.

 

And don't tell me BvS opened on Good Friday - I know that.

HP7-2 dropped 25 % puuh. and that had a 2.25x with summer legs.

 

Well I guess, it is pretty bad. Only 24th biggest Sunday (22th biggest in opening Weekend (Engame's 2nd and TFA's 2nd were bigger).

The further one looks into that weekend performance the worse it looks, Captain Marvel had a 39M Sunday but only a 41m Friday.

 

Actually a surprising amount of movies don't drop much between True Friday and Sunday (in the past probably due to lower rush and nowadays to Thursday taking away so much pressure). Seems to often be between 0% and 10 % (Civil War dropped 16 %. With IW, BP, BatB increasing). 

 

[Cooper Legion]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

I was going to push back on this, and argue Saturday is more relevant given the potential for Sunday to be affected by outside factors, but decided to run the math first. And well, numbers speak for themselves ...

 

Here is every April/May MCU release since The Avengers, with total DOM compared to opening Sat & Sun

Year	Title	SAT Ratio	SUN Ratio
2019	Endgame	7.86	9.50
2018	Infinity War	8.26	9.80
2017	GOTG2	7.60	9.96
2016	Civil War	6.67	9.62
2015	Ultron	8.06	9.05
2013	Iron Man 3	6.53	9.45
	AVERAGE	7.50	9.56

No 10x Sun 👀👀

[Cap]

I won’t lie, 187M/449M feels like the best number for Wanda’s chaos magic. It’s really great, but it’s not really good. Thus, gonna provide pages and pages of entertainment as everyone tries to read tea leaves. 
 

[CJohn]

8 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

 

 

 

$449.4M

 

IT FUCKING DROPPED OS?!?!?

 

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

Who's gonna create the under 1B club? 

[Taruseth]

13 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

No 10x Sun 👀👀

Oh my , we are F*****

 

Honestly if this ends below 372m that would be utterly awful. Just needs better legs than BvS

Edited May 9, 2022 by Taruseth

[CJohn]

I still think 400M will happen but I am not sure about beating Civil War/Iron Man 3 anymore. Ultron is certainly safe.

Edited May 9, 2022 by CJohn

[Taruseth]

Just now, CJohn said:

IT FUCKING DROPPED OS?!?!?

 

Yeah, it was what I was saying yesterday, most numbers looked to be right on the target (or maybe even a little optimistic) and the German number looked like 2.5m or so too much (12m instead of like 9.5m which it is actually doing).

And quite a few others said that 265m looked a little to forced nice for 450m ww.

[YM!]

12 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

Not a good sign for thor 4. BP2 should definitely do more.

What the hell does Thor 4 have to do with Multiverse of Madness lol

[Taruseth]

2 minutes ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

Who's gonna create the under 1B club? 

Please do - looks like we might have the first 900m-1b one.

[John Marston]

MoM always seemed more hyped than Thor 4 so I think Thor 4 will open below it but it could have better legs 

[SLAM!]

At least the immediate legs will be pretty good. May 13th, no competition (Firestarter and Family Camp won’t do much). Then May 20th, sort of the same, its audiences don’t overlap too much with Men and Downton Abbey. So Doctor Strange is going to enjoy two more weeks of being unrivaled at the box office. Top Gun and Jurassic will probably eat into the long legs, but Doctor Strange is looking at great grosses in the short term.

Edited May 9, 2022 by SLAM!
grammar ;_;

[M37]

5 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

No 10x Sun 👀👀

Nope. Basically pencil in 9.5x Sun and wiggle from there. The one outlier is Ultron, but could argue the Sat night fight pushed some business to Sun, and thew off the ratio. Avengers and Thor did manage over a 10X sun though

 

With that said, far less competition coming up than a typical year, could soften drops. For fun, here's the 2021 MCU releases, with various release dates/holidays and a whole bunch of other compounding factors. Best case is probably Eternals for Strange, which points to ~$390 DOM

 

Title	SAT Ratio	SUN Ratio
NWH	10.88	12.53
Shang-Chi	9.68	9.89
Eternals	6.83	10.10
BW	7.88	10.46

 

[Cooper Legion]

Using @M37’s Total/sat avg gives 431M and Total/Sun gives 373M (off 57.5 and 39 respectively) for a geomean of… 401M 👀   
 

Personally I would say that postOW gross/Sat and PostOW gross/Sun should be slightly more accurate since it uses the info that is currently “locked in” (first 3 days) more effectively — but I’m not going to calculate them right now, so

[Taruseth]

Its Sunday compared to its previews is about as much bigger as TFA's Sunday was compared to previews and that did 3.78x so... everything is fine. We are looking at a 706m total in the end, a bit above BP🤣.

[filmlover]

Just now, SLAM! said:

At least the immediate legs will be pretty good. May 13th, no competition (Firestarter and Family Camp won’t do much). The May 20th, sort of the same, its audiences doesn’t overlap too much with Men and Downton Abbey. So Doctor Strange is going to enjoy two more weeks of being unrivaled at the box office. Top Gun and Jurassic will probably eat into the long legs, but Doctor Strange is looking at great grosses in the short term.

Firestarter is going to flop so hard. Wouldn't be at all surprised by a sub-$5M opening.

[fabiopazzo2]

The vi Tory of this man @ImNotRacistAtAll

 

 

[Eric Prime]

Just now, filmlover said:

Firestarter is going to flop so hard. Wouldn't be at all surprised by a sub-$5M opening.

I saw the trailer for this in the theaters a while ago, and when I heard the kid say "Liar liar, pants on fire" unironically, I knew this movie was in trouble.

[exomassey]

It’s clear the movie is “crumbling”, for a number of different reasons.

For comparison, I suspect the 2nd weekend will go below the Batmans 2nd weekend.

 

However a film with Strange and Wanda opening to 450m globally without China, Russia and other homophobic countries is a win. Frontloaded or not.