Elemental | Disney/Pixar | June 16, 2023 | What if elements have feelings?????? 😱😱😱😱 | Surprise sleeper hit with the biggest 2023 premiere on Disney+

[YM!]

51 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

Little Mermaid holding relatively well in its second weekend against Spider-Man opening means Snow White will be fine opening the week before the next Spider-Man since the demographic appeal will be similarly split (one will heavily to girls, the other to boys) and Snow has a lower ceiling for it anyway (more Cinderella than Beauty and the Beast). Elio seems to be staking its claim in early March already (first trailer will be landing soon in time to premiere with this) so Kung Fu Panda will likely end up moving, it all comes down to how much the strike impacts the release schedule.

Eh. I doubt it. Trolls 3 has refused to move from Wish which is five days later. I think Universal is willing to have a smaller hit and hurt it’s competition which is highly weakened.

[Jonwo]

19 minutes ago, YM! said:

Eh. I doubt it. Trolls 3 has refused to move from Wish which is five days later. I think Universal is willing to have a smaller hit and hurt it’s competition which is highly weakened.

It is strange how people have become so anti Disney these days. 

[AniNate]

I don't think they actively intend to hurt competition as a business strategy but they're also not particularly incentivized to move their own films if it doesn't seem that intimidating. I do think Panda and Elio both may want to reconsider their release dates if Spiderverse 3 stays put.

Edited June 4, 2023 by AniNate

[YM!]

41 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

It is strange how people have become so anti Disney these days. 

I’m not anti-Pixar or anti-WDAS, I’m just finding it odd that Universal isn’t giving things space.

[Morieris]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

It is strange how people have become so anti Disney these days. 

"I wonder why this other studio feels bold enough to move onto Disney's established turf" =/= anti-Disney

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

It is strange how people have become so anti Disney these days. 

 

It's not anti-Disney.  It's a competitor smelling blood in the water and deciding to make their move to dominate - just like Disney/Pixar did 2 decades ago...

 

Universal's animation studios have been on a hot streak 2020 onward.  Now, Sony also is showing strength.  Disney's studios have shown only weakness on their theatrical releases.  So, if either of the 2 companies want to make the move to dominate the theatrical animation market, now is the time to not move off the most ideal dates of the year and let Disney blink, just like they used to blink during Pixar's dominance.

[Kalo]

At this point, I do think there is a bit of prejudiced against the Company. they haven't really had a quality hit film since "Encanto" (Turning Red was good imo but audiences were torn on it)  (Marvel doesn't really count imo), and on top of that they alienated a portion of potential customers by choosing a side politically. I mean they also kind of have, but they are much more bullish about it. Most people will over look this if the product is extremally high quality.  And lately they just aren't that good. and other studios have taken notice and used that as an opportunity to show their films. Anyways back to elemental. it just doesn't look that good or original. every time I see a trailer for it I just think "Inside Out' rip-off and that's not good. and I just don't see this doing that well, especially now that Spider-Verse is blowing up massively. $80-$120m. unless it gets rave reviews, which so far it is not. maybe $140m tops.

[YM!]

10 minutes ago, Kalo said:

At this point, I do think there is a bit of prejudiced against the Company. they haven't really had a quality hit film since "Encanto" (Turning Red was good imo but audiences were torn on it)  (Marvel doesn't really count imo), and on top of that they alienated a portion of potential customers by choosing a side politically. I mean they also kind of have, but they are much more bullish about it. Most people will over look this if the product is extremally high quality.  And lately they just aren't that good. and other studios have taken notice and used that as an opportunity to show their films. Anyways back to elemental. it just doesn't look that good or original. every time I see a trailer for it I just think "Inside Out' rip-off and that's not good. and I just don't see this doing that well, especially now that Spider-Verse is blowing up massively. $80-$120m. unless it gets rave reviews, which so far it is not. maybe $140m tops.

TLM is doing 300m domestically, and with the % of Caucasian audience decreased in general since the pandemic (Top Gun and Guardians are the only example of 40%+). The problem isn’t right wing america having a hissy fit but rather the fact that Disney Plus is entirely too convenient. The Plus numbers only fell worldwide literally due to Cricket, Disney actually has gained subscribers here in the states. In addition to that, when most of Pixar’s films this decade has gone to the plus, it trains your audience.

Edited June 4, 2023 by YM!

[Kalo]

48 minutes ago, YM! said:

TLM is doing 300m domestically, and with the % of Caucasian audience decreased in general since the pandemic (Top Gun and Guardians are the only example of 40%+). The problem isn’t right wing america having a hissy fit but rather the fact that Disney Plus is entirely too convenient. The Plus numbers only fell worldwide literally due to Cricket, Disney actually has gained subscribers here in the states. In addition to that, when most of Pixar’s films this decade has gone to the plus, it trains your audience.

Yes that is a big problem too. But yes the right is throwing a hissy fit. Most of my family is conservative and none of them will see a Disney movie in theaters right now. It may only be 10 15 percent of thier audience. But that is a decent chunk on top of several other factors. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

TLM is doing 300m domestically, and with the % of Caucasian audience decreased in general since the pandemic (Top Gun and Guardians are the only example of 40%+). The problem isn’t right wing america having a hissy fit but rather the fact that Disney Plus is entirely too convenient. The Plus numbers only fell worldwide literally due to Cricket, Disney actually has gained subscribers here in the states. In addition to that, when most of Pixar’s films this decade has gone to the plus, it trains your audience.

I just think these numbers are too low to make conceptual sense for posttrak. Postrak's OW estimate was 33% for Avatar 2 but Movio's overall estimate (which I'm pretty sure is tied to linking people's demo data based on rewards cards) was something like 58% Caucasian. Similarly, EEAAO's overall Demo was 55% for movio and 46% on opening weekend for posttrak. Perhaps EEAAO is explainable by changing audience comp but Avatar 2 doesn't seem to be. 

 

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-1235200714/
 

https://movio.co/blog/finding-box-office-boosts-from-oscars-r-nominations/

 

[scytheavatar]

18 hours ago, Dothezelda101 said:

 More likely he’d just bring new management into the studio and cut their budgets 

 

Problem is, how do you cut Pixar's budget? It is easier said than done, other animation studios have lower budget because they outsource their work overseas and because they move towards 2.5D anime influenced stylism. Rather than the ultra realism and attention to detail that Pixar is known for. To do either would be to kill Pixar. Ironically Pixar is facing similar problems of rising cost and diminishing returns that led to the death of 2d animation which they contributed much to. 

 

This has been a major contribution to WDAS's decline, in recent years they  have been increasing turning into  DreamWorks. 

Edited June 5, 2023 by scytheavatar

[Bob Train]

Will Elemental beat Onward (141m) worldwide? I think it might fall short.

[AniNate]

49 minutes ago, scytheavatar said:

Problem is, how do you cut Pixar's budget?

 

Laying off 75 employees apparently. Sigh...

[Boxx93]

6 hours ago, YM! said:

TLM is doing 300m domestically, and with the % of Caucasian audience decreased in general since the pandemic (Top Gun and Guardians are the only example of 40%+). The problem isn’t right wing america having a hissy fit but rather the fact that Disney Plus is entirely too convenient. The Plus numbers only fell worldwide literally due to Cricket, Disney actually has gained subscribers here in the states. In addition to that, when most of Pixar’s films this decade has gone to the plus, it trains your audience.

 

Disney Plus lost 300,000 subscribers in the United States among the 4 million subscribers they lost worldwide, according to their Q2 investors call on May 10th of this year. It's the very reason why their stock value took a huge hit this month. This is not just an India problem.

[YM!]

13 minutes ago, Boxx93 said:

 

Disney Plus lost 300,000 subscribers in the United States among the 4 million subscribers they lost worldwide, according to their Q2 investors call on May 10th of this year. It's the very reason why their stock value took a huge hit this month. This is not just an India problem.

Disney+ has not really had a show that really broke the mainstream in ages. Last time subscribers really flocked was Loki back in 2021. Sure, Marvel and Star Wars stuff drives up numbers but it’s not really bleeding but more or less around the same as any other streamer. 300,000 is only a fraction of 42M in the US, hell that’s barely over 0.7% of US subscribers. 

[Boxx93]

31 minutes ago, YM! said:

Disney+ has not really had a show that really broke the mainstream in ages. Last time subscribers really flocked was Loki back in 2021. Sure, Marvel and Star Wars stuff drives up numbers but it’s not really bleeding but more or less around the same as any other streamer. 300,000 is only a fraction of 42M in the US, hell that’s barely over 0.7% of US subscribers. 

Disney was expecting a subscribers increase for this quarter. Not a loss. That's awful for a streaming service that to this day is still losing money and will not be profitable until late 2024. And even when if becomes profitable, Disney will still be bleeding money for the purchase of the remaining share (33%) of Hulu witch is now valued at 70 billion dollars according to Comcast, almost the same amount of money that Disney spent for buying Fox, meaning they have to pay over 20 billion dollars for that remaining share instead of the 9 billion they where supposed to pay.

 

That's way too much money even for a big corporation like Disney. Hence the reason why you're seeing all this massive layoff from all departments (including top executives like Victoria Alonso from Marvel and recently Angus McLane from Pixar) and slashing content from both Disney+ and Hulu to not pay royalties to creators, saving money and trying to devalue Hulu by not marketing the brand at all outside the US and putting the Star brand internationally instead.

 

Edited June 5, 2023 by Boxx93

[AniNate]

I wonder if Angus Maclane was still in the Senior Creative Team credits for this movie. That would be awkward if they had to quickly remove his name.

[TwoMisfits]

13 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

I just think these numbers are too low to make conceptual sense for posttrak. Postrak's OW estimate was 33% for Avatar 2 but Movio's overall estimate (which I'm pretty sure is tied to linking people's demo data based on rewards cards) was something like 58% Caucasian. Similarly, EEAAO's overall Demo was 55% for movio and 46% on opening weekend for posttrak. Perhaps EEAAO is explainable by changing audience comp but Avatar 2 doesn't seem to be. 

 

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-1235200714/
 

https://movio.co/blog/finding-box-office-boosts-from-oscars-r-nominations/

 

 

I also think the numbers we are getting are somewhat low for Caucasians, but I think they are low equally for all the movies on Posttrak, so you can still get good data on what movie is drawing who...and depending on where they tally the results, well, urban areas will skew more diverse and rural ones less so, so an all urban sample will sample Caucasians low, so it may be entirely accidental...

 

Also, it's very possible Caucasians are the "non-opening weekend" buyers, so they start to swell legs for movies they decide to see.

[cannastop]

21 hours ago, AniNate said:

I wonder if Angus Maclane was still in the Senior Creative Team credits for this movie. That would be awkward if they had to quickly remove his name.

I bet it's still in the credits... he wasn't fired until after Cannes.

[kayumanggi]

WALL-E 🥺