Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[DAJK]

This weekend thread is reminding me of the insane weekend thread for Jurassic World. The numbers just kept going up and up and up, everyone knew they had a MONSTER on their hands. It was probably one of the most exciting box office days I’ve ever experienced.

 

Also, if Hollywood learns anything from TGM, it’s that making QUALITY movies for the BIG SCREEN will pay off. Tight script, solid direction, good performances, etc. Make a good movie that is designed for the big screen, and you will reap the benefits.

 

I also think the performance of this movie is going to change the conversation of “is the movie star dead” for years to come. No way in hell this movie did anywhere near these kinds of numbers without Cruise.

[Brainbug]

I think its quite possible that Mission: Impossible 7 will get a boost because of Top Gun next year.

[IronJimbo]

I believe this is a beginning of a new era in Cinema, we're moving away from the 2010-2019 superhero dominance and more into the back to classic 'epics'.

 

The reason being is that the power is moving back to the Directors, rather than all of it with the studio producers. Of course James Cameron will lead the way, with the Avatar movies making 3 billies and more (each) and will be the flagship franchise of the next decade.

I'm interested to see what Joseph Kosinski will make next, I've got a feeling its going to have a BIG budget.

[Cooper Legion]

21 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

TFA wasnt nearly as impressive as JW was or as Top Gun is right now imo. Everyone knew TFA would be massive, so its epic run was not nearly as surprising as JW's breakout or Top Guns imo. Im not talking about raw numbers, more like the surprise factor.

I’m not talking about raw numbers either, but it’s not like impressiveness is the same as surprise level. If something is expected to do 20M and it does like 150M then that’s nice and all but it’s still just a medium sized movie at the end of the day.   
 

And it’s not like TFA was *expected* to crush the #1 by 23% — also a pretty surprising run!   Since JW I guess maybe:

TFA

JW

BP

TGM (with ~550) 

NWH

 

 

[IronJimbo]

14 minutes ago, DAJK said:

This weekend thread is reminding me of the insane weekend thread for Jurassic World. The numbers just kept going up and up and up, everyone knew they had a MONSTER on their hands. It was probably one of the most exciting box office days I’ve ever experienced.

 

Also, if Hollywood learns anything from TGM, it’s that making QUALITY movies for the BIG SCREEN will pay off. Tight script, solid direction, good performances, etc. Make a good movie that is designed for the big screen, and you will reap the benefits.

 

I also think the performance of this movie is going to change the conversation of “is the movie star dead” for years to come. No way in hell this movie did anywhere near these kinds of numbers without Cruise.

 

This relys on great directors been given huge budgets and creative control. This is something studios are scared of because it comes with risk.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Early word on JPD seems a little scary so I'm dropping my expectations there a bit. And, TLT looking like the absolute max would be just over 500M DOM if everything goes completely right... I'm nowhere near as bullish as others on WF if it even stays in November. A2 could be huge but I expect a dip in sales there too. But, that holiday boost will be huge for sure but thinking around 500M DOM for that too. So, yeah, crazy... TGM is starting to feel pretty locked to win the year. 

 

What a phenomenal hold this weekend. I have a feeling it's gonna end with a three day just over 90M. 

 

This is all gravy for the big blockbusters right now. Batman opened impressively and had nice legs (134/369). Excellent for a reboot. Strange opened ridiculously with not so great legs but still a huge total (187/400+). Jurassic will be huge even if it's crap but hopefully even then it's the fun of crap that has moderate legs. I can't imagine it not opening enormously next weekend. Around Strange level. Thor will cleanup and has a very real chance at 400. Lightyear I'd think is locked for 300. Potential breakouts like Nope and Bullet Train. And, EEAAO crossing 60 this weekend. All great stuff.

 

This Top Gun stuff is nuts though. It'll be BY FAR the softest 2nd weekend drop of any of the Top 10 All Time 2nd weekends. Unbelievable. I guess Frozen 2 is kind close going from 130 only to 85. That's only 34%. Top Gun will be just under a 30% drop if it hits 90 this weekend.

 

And, yeah, I'm now thinking it's probably winning the year. I think something like 525+ is probably enough to win the year and I expect it gets there now. I guess we just need to see how big of hit losing premium screens will hurt later legs. Because, starting next weekend... I don't see it getting those back anytime soon with Jurassic then Lightyear. Even Elvis will probably steal some of those and then not long after is Thor. So... That's the question for me... It's the ideal premium screen blockbuster... Hope it doesn't hurt TGM too much when it loses them.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

 

This relies on great directors been given huge budgets and creative control. This is something studios are scared of because it comes with risk.

Agree. But, this also relies on nostalgia and being a well known property. If this is the first Top Gun and the other doesn't exist (interestingly Maverick very much works as a standalone even if you haven't seen the first but still), it would do very well but nothing remotely close to this... The filmmaking is awesome and it was a risk but not an enormous risk.

[Cooper Legion]

This run is generating perhaps the most wishful thinking comments vis a vis industry trends I have EVER seen and I can’t quite tell to what degree people are being serious or just sort of taking a brief moment to talk about what they obviously *want* to happen as though it’s what will happen 

Edited June 4, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[SchumacherFTW]

The craziest thing about this hold is that it's AFTER a holiday weekend, the convention is a larger than normal drop, not all time great hold 😅

[JohnnyGossamer]

Unrelated to box office but I watched RRR and last weekend and it was awesome. Ashamed I missed that one in theaters. It's probably my favorite of the year so far. That director is incredible. 

 

Anyone know when Decision to Leave is supposed to be released later this year?

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

The craziest thing about this hold is that it's AFTER a holiday weekend, the convention is a larger than normal drop, not all time great hold 😅

 

The wonders of amazing WOM.

[aabattery]

37 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Also, if Hollywood learns anything from TGM, it’s that making QUALITY movies for the BIG SCREEN will pay off. Tight script, solid direction, good performances, etc. Make a good movie that is designed for the big screen, and you will reap the benefits.

 

shaking up hollywood with the radical idea of making movies good

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Just now, SchumacherFTW said:

The craziest thing about this hold is that it's AFTER a holiday weekend, the convention is a larger than normal drop, not all time great hold 😅

I know, right! I can't believe it honestly. Truly an incredible weekend to weekend to hold.

[IronJimbo]

11 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Agree. But, this also relies on nostalgia and being a well known property. If this is the first Top Gun and the other doesn't exist (interestingly Maverick very much works as a standalone even if you haven't seen the first but still), it would do very well but nothing remotely close to this... The filmmaking is awesome and it was a risk but not an enormous risk.

 

Yeah original scripts not based on a well established entity are never going to get the budgets anymore. There's only a few directors currently who would be given a big budget with a completely original script.

 

I think the only hope for something 'fresh' would be books/video games/comics which have never a had a film, I'm not sure how much more they can get out of the superhero genre.

 

Another way to keep things fresh would be to be innovative and do new stuff with the same IPs. An example of this with superhero movies for me was Infinity War, which is hands down my favourite MCU film (not hard).

 

You can do really cool stuff with existing IPs that would be new and fresh, I think the superhero genre needs to realise this fast or its going to make people not even want to give their new movies a chance.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

 

shaking up hollywood with the radical idea of making movies good

 

 

Seriously though Hollywood has been struggling to make big budget movies good for over a decade. It's because they're so risk adverse and care about money before quality, without thought into the longterm.

[IronJimbo]

22 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

This run is generating perhaps the most wishful thinking comments vis a vis industry trends I have EVER seen and I can’t quite tell to what degree people are being serious or just sort of taking a brief moment to talk about what they obviously *want* to happen as though it’s what will happen 

The best part of this is for me its not even wishful thinking. With the size of the Avatar sequels and the fact that they're been released in 2022, 2024, 2026 and 2028. Avatar alone can set this trend.

[Valonqar]

46 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Also, if Hollywood learns anything from TGM, it’s that making QUALITY movies for the BIG SCREEN will pay off. Tight script, solid direction, good performances, etc. Make a good movie that is designed for the big screen, and you will reap the benefits.

 

 

Also don't do bait and switch. Deliver what you promised which doesn't mean a movie cannot surprise. But these days, there's a controversial tendency to sell Y under pretense of X. Title character is in the movie but the movie is about another character that studio isn't sure would have the same pull with audience if the movie was named after that character. Top Gun Maverick is about Maverick, with Rooster and Hangman having plenty to do but the focus is the character who is promised to be the focus. It's his journey. He isn't just there for star power or to pass the torch that no one asked for. 

Edited June 4, 2022 by Valonqar

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

The best part of this is for me its not even wishful thinking. With the size of the Avatar sequels and the fact that they're been released in 2022, 2024, 2026 and 2028. Avatar alone can set this trend.

They'll all be at least good because it's Cameron and they'll all be state of the art everything... That said, well earned, but it's very much based on property now that the first is nearing 15 years old. It's nothing brand new if that's the trend that you're talking about.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

They'll all be at least good because it's Cameron and they'll all be state of the art everything... That said, well earned, but it's very much based on property now that the first is nearing 15 years old. It's nothing brand new if that's the trend that you're talking about.

 

I thought I made it clear the trend of spending big budgets only existing IPs will continue!

 

The trend is the type of big budget movies, moving back to films that feel more like the blockbusters from 15-30 years ago and moving away from Superhero movies and Star Wars. Superhero Movies and Star Wars will always exist for the foreseeable future, they just won't have the stranglehold that they had in the 2010s.

[Cooper Legion]

So do we gotta wait for 2050 to get Bradley Cooper in American Sniper Maverick