Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[IceFire9yt]

3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

And? 
Pre-pandemic Marvel movies all did, so expecting MoM to pass 1 billion like, say Captain Marvel, isn’t a fair comparison. 
 

950-970 for DS2 is great, all this disappointment is just silly. With China and Russia, it likely would have come close to matching Captain Marvel, and that was certainly not considered a disappointment 

You can also just compare it to 2017, which by all accounts was a banner year for Marvel.  MoM will outgross all of Marvel's catalog that year, domestically and worldwide, even without many markets.  Domestically, it'll increase over 70% from the previous installment, which is more than any MCU followup save for No Way Home.  In terms of MCU 2nd movies in a series, its #2 domestic (behind AoU) and #3 worldwide (also behind FFH).  If you went a year or two back and gave us this movie's final totals, no one would call it a disappointment.

 

The second way of looking at it is that reception was mixed and it obviously had a bad multi.  So yeah, fair to say it fell short of what it could have potentially done.  In that way it is a disappointment, a missed opportunity.  Its a disappointment in comparison to what it could have done, not in comparison to other movies. 

 

But, alternatively, if you want to look at it as a sign of interest in the MCU, MoM's performance is definitely a show of strength. 

[Starde]

On 6/5/2022 at 4:54 AM, baumer said:

It's pretty rare at least in my recollection, is that a film is completely beloved by pretty much everyones has a massive rotten tomatoes score and even has most people here loving it. I know there's lots of other films that can claim this but this movie just seems like it's being embraced by everybody. Old fogies like me are loving it my 12-year-old niece adored it and the 20 and 30-year-olds are loving it as well. It's awesome to see how this movie has just allowed everyone to just fall in love with it.

 

Took the words right out of my mouth. Hell, I've been lurking in here for years now, but leave it up to a movie like TGM to have me posting in here again. Seen it more than once now and my mind is still blown. I haven't been this hyped for a movie's box office run in a minute.

 

PS - I gotta say that it's great to still see some folks from the Box Office Mojo days still posting here.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Starde

[EmpireCity]

The Chinese Communist Governement can eat shit.  

[Legion Again]

500 is the new 400  

[charlie Jatinder]

Lets try 28-29 SUN.

[MikeQ]

 

Dax Shepard giving free advertising for Top Gun: Maverick (at 7:50 and 11:28). 😂

 

"It's a perfect movie. I haven't had that much fun in a movie theatre since I saw The Matrix... 20+ years."

 

Peace,

Mike

[krla]

Does Top Gun: Maverick even meet the Academy's new diversity requirements to be nominated for an Oscar? It was filmed like 2 years before the new rules came in, so I doubt they had the foresight to stack the crew with minorities. 

[MikeQ]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Lets try 28-29 SUN.

 

This would mean a weekend gross of 88.8 - 89.8 million (a 29.1-29.9% drop). Stunning.

 

TGM will have the 8th best 2nd weekend of all-time... after having "only" the 39th best opening weekend of all-time. What an incredible hold.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited June 6, 2022 by MikeQ

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

This would mean a weekend gross of 88.8 - 89.8 million (a 29.1-29.9% drop). Stunning.

 

TGM will have the 8th best 2nd weekend of all-time... after having "only" the 39th best opening weekend of all-time. What an incredible hold.

 

Peace,

Mike

Sniper redux

 

 

[Tokugennumataka]

 

8 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

This would mean a weekend gross of 88.8 - 89.8 million (a 29.1-29.9% drop). Stunning.

 

TGM will have the 8th best 2nd weekend of all-time... after having "only" the 39th best opening weekend of all-time. What an incredible hold.

 

Peace,

Mike

Try for a top 10 3rd weekend (49.6M+) and 4th best 4th weekend (36.7M+). 

[Ozymandias]

13 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

This would mean a weekend gross of 88.8 - 89.8 million (a 29.1-29.9% drop). Stunning.

 

TGM will have the 8th best 2nd weekend of all-time... after having "only" the 39th best opening weekend of all-time. What an incredible hold.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

With an 89m weekend, it will make 51.2m next weekend(-42.4%) if it follows Aladdin.  I think it will hold better than that.

 

I'm really curious about tomorrow's number.  Will it be over 10m?

 

Peace,

Ozy

[Tokugennumataka]

5 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

With an 89m weekend, it will make 51.2m next weekend(-42.4%) if it follows Aladdin.  I think it will hold better than that.

 

I'm really curious about tomorrow's number.  Will it be over 10m?

 

Peace,

Ozy

Thinking close to 11.5M, off 60% from Sunday. Summer holidays are not yet in full effect so weekdays should continue to see better holds than something like Aladdin. 

[Jiffy]

Would be nice for it to achieve $90m somehow.

[superduperm]

26 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

With an 89m weekend, it will make 51.2m next weekend(-42.4%) if it follows Aladdin.  I think it will hold better than that.

 

I'm really curious about tomorrow's number.  Will it be over 10m?

 

Peace,

Ozy

Not going to lie: I think under $10M tomorrow would be underwhelming at this point.

 

It needs to be at $10M+ on Thursday to have a shot at $50M third weekend IMO. Jurassic World won’t allow more than a 50% Friday increase (and

using a similar multiplier to this weekend, $14.5M Friday is needed for $50M weekend).

[MattW]

I believe when the 4th of july is on Monday it's a better schedule bc people go to see movies later in the evening Sunday and then monday business gets a boost as well, and Top Gun being the movie it is we might see an especially good long weekend this year. That might be the weekend it goes over $500m.

[Xavier]

2 hours ago, IceFire9yt said:

You can also just compare it to 2017, which by all accounts was a banner year for Marvel.  MoM will outgross all of Marvel's catalog that year, domestically and worldwide, even without many markets.  Domestically, it'll increase over 70% from the previous installment, which is more than any MCU followup save for No Way Home.  In terms of MCU 2nd movies in a series, its #2 domestic (behind AoU) and #3 worldwide (also behind FFH).  If you went a year or two back and gave us this movie's final totals, no one would call it a disappointment.

 

The second way of looking at it is that reception was mixed and it obviously had a bad multi.  So yeah, fair to say it fell short of what it could have potentially done.  In that way it is a disappointment, a missed opportunity.  Its a disappointment in comparison to what it could have done, not in comparison to other movies. 

 

But, alternatively, if you want to look at it as a sign of interest in the MCU, MoM's performance is definitely a show of strength. 

So how many middling movies/performances would you say will take for the MCU to have a real problem? Because I think Eternals, Black Widow and the mixed bag MCU D+ shows have paved the way.

[Tokugennumataka]

10 minutes ago, MattW said:

I believe when the 4th of july is on Monday it's a better schedule bc people go to see movies later in the evening Sunday and then monday business gets a boost as well, and Top Gun being the movie it is we might see an especially good long weekend this year. That might be the weekend it goes over $500m.

Probably a rehash of the Memorial Day holds it experienced, albeit on a lower scale. 

[Potiki]

I don't know why it always devolves into streaming vs. theatrical, the studios are obviously going to want both revenue streams. 

 

If you ask a studio if they would rather $5-10B at the studio with an operating margin of 30% or $10-20B from streaming with an operating margin of 20% they would most likely respond

 

 

That is a possible outcome for 3 of the studios within the next few years. 

 

Also the studios have, for the most part, never been producing more than they are right now. Streaming and TV have really opened up more opportunities. 

 

As for the 45 day window, it has an impact but not a major one for most films although Top Gun Maverick does seem to be super leggy so it for sure would be more impacted by the 45 day window than say The Batman and DS2. 

[Juby]

Maverick is another proof that if a movie is destined to be smashing hit, it will be a hit no matter what. Do You rememeber our February discussion (in The Batman threat) about TDK and how someone claims that the film broke OW record and exceeded $500m gross domestic only/mainly due to Heath's death? And it was based on the Batman Begins box office run and TDK's (under)predictions from day one? Nope, TDK was an overwhelming hit and it would have been a crushing hit, even without Heath dying. It was the return of the Joker character after 19 years and Heath's incredible perfomance, not his death the reason why TDK broke out so much. Such things happen, especially with the highly anticipated sequels.

 

Now let's go back to TGM. If $90 million 2nd weekend is true than the bare minimum the movie should add is $185 million (the same as Beauty and the Beast in 2017 added after its $90.4m 2nd weekend). Ofc it's not gonna happen. B&tB had more competition, smaller days of the mid-week in March-May, and wasn't received as well as TGM. So, $480 million is locked for 100%.

 

Let's compare Maverick to TDK. Batman's opening was $31.7m bigger than Tom's, but after 10 days the gap narrowed, possibly to around $18.2m. TDK had great legs, it had been in theaters for 8 months, but there were a lot of films in calendar than, now we'll have only one major release each week, so Top Gun's legs could be even better. Let's see how Mav will do next weekend, TDK faced smaller competition (third Mummy, and he won!), TGM will face a possible +$150 million opener and will lose all large format on Friday. This could be the reason why people decited to see the film this weekend (last chance to see this in IMAX), and maybe the next weekend TGM will lose over 50% of the audience? We'll see, for now I think beating The Lion King's $544m domestic is achievable.

 

[TiagoRodrigues]

Just came here to say that following Maverick's numbers have been nothing short of amazing. Both as a fan of Tom Cruise (as an artist only) and cinemas.

 

If a year ago we were all not sure if theaters would still live after the pandemic, i'm loving to see they are not only going nowhere but people are surprising all these studios. 

 

I hope to see Maverick in a week from now though.