Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[Borobudur]

Is TBG still heading to 100m finish total? The movie still needs $12.5m and two-three major family hits are on their way. 

[LegendaryBen]

1 minute ago, Ozymandias said:

sucks the dinosaur movie is gonna take a lot of its screens next weekend

What’s your prediction drop for its third weekend?

[Ozymandias]

1 minute ago, LegendaryBen said:

What’s your prediction drop for its third weekend?

 

around 60m

[The Dark Alfred]

No way it's dropping 31% on Sunday, actuals will be a couple of million higher. Funny that TGM will probably gross on its THIRD weekend what some "experts" were predicting for its second weekend lol

 

I think JW will defo going to hurt next weekend, its opening is going to be massive, but expecting it to drop hard afterwards, heavy family film competition coming its way and won't get much repeat viewing. It's OW will be healthy though.

 

The hit from the dinos will be felt, but plenty of boosts are coming Maverick's way. Father's Day, 4th of July, probably getting IMAX screens back at some pointy (certainly in August), maybe a Labour Day bump and who knows, might be getting a later re-release if the Oscar buzz is serious.

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Is TBG still heading to 100m finish total? The movie still needs $12.5m and two-three major family hits are on their way. 

Dominion and Minions would help boost it, not hurt it, same studio = double feature fudge. Looking likely for ~95m, Lightyear will hurt it. If it continue a great hold against Lightyear, it’s plausible.

Edited June 5, 2022 by YourMother

[DAJK]

Next week’s drop is going to be bigger (thinking if it can stay above 60M that would be amazing, though I’m not expecting it). If it does manage that however, wouldn’t be surprised to see it stay above 40 and hit 45 or so on the weekend of the 17th. Then 25-30 weekend after that, and an increase over the July 4 weekend to 35 or so.

[LegendaryBen]

3 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

around 60m

60% or 60m for it’s 3rd weekend?

[Brainbug]

Just now, LegendaryBen said:

60% or 60m for it’s 3rd weekend?

 

I dont think a single poster here would predict Top Gun to drop 60% next weekend 😉

[ringedmortality]

Who would even be a good replacement for Chapek

[Ozymandias]

This is definitely getting a lot of Oscar nominations(including BP/BD) btw, the reviews are almost on Fury Road level and that combined with the 550m-650m domestic total it will be impossible to ignore

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

Who would even be a good replacement for Chapek

 

Palpatine.

[ringedmortality]

Just now, Ozymandias said:

btw, the reviews are almost on Fury Road level

Top Gun Maverick Metacritic: 78

 

Mad Max Fury Road Metacritic: 90

[lorddemaxus]

44 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

It's been proven over and over doing this cuts millions out of the gross and would be on a gigantic scale with a film like this.  

You have to show this proof instead of saying it exists lmao. But you can't because there's barely any proof of causation or correlation between legs and theatrical window length here, especially at a worldwide scale (where we've had even day and date releases like Dune have great legs).

 

If TGM loses $300 mil WW, most of that loss would be DOM (because that's where the shorter window would be). And it's practically impossible for a movie to lose that kind of money merely due to theatrical window length.

 

Edited June 5, 2022 by lorddemaxus

[titanic2187]

I am so not sure if I can buy 60m 3rd weekend for TGM. JWD if doing 160m, add another 60m from TGM, that would be 220m in total, adding others holdovers the total box office can go as high as 250m! I am not sure if market is ready to accommodate this level of combined gross. NWH weekend had 282m but 95% was from NWH, which make it easier to achieve high aggregate grosses.

[Tokugennumataka]

$50M next weekend should be the goal. Anything else is gravy. Think close to 40M the following weekend, usual 30-40% drops after July the 4th and a Labor Day expansion, preferably to cross the 600M mark. 

[superduperm]

13 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Next week’s drop is going to be bigger (thinking if it can stay above 60M that would be amazing, though I’m not expecting it). If it does manage that however, wouldn’t be surprised to see it stay above 40 and hit 45 or so on the weekend of the 17th. Then 25-30 weekend after that, and an increase over the July 4 weekend to 35 or so.

I’m just hoping for $50M.

 

Such a shame Jurassic World has to come in and eat its IMAX up already. They gotta find a way to compromise these things.

[Ozymandias]

8 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Top Gun Maverick Metacritic: 78

 

Mad Max Fury Road Metacritic: 90

 

RT is far more relevant in the culture though

[Maggie]

Crimes of the Future really bombed. Made three times less than Men OW. Sure, it's a hard sell, but it has bigger star power with Stewart and Cronenberg

[Jiffy]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Crimes of the Future really bombed. Made three times less than Men OW. Sure, it's a hard sell, but it has bigger star power with Stewart and Cronenberg

I would question Stewart having any real drawing power.

[ThomasNicole]

13 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

This is definitely getting a lot of Oscar nominations(including BP/BD) btw, the reviews are almost on Fury Road level and that combined with the 550m-650m domestic total it will be impossible to ignore

I don't think is quite like Fury Road 

 

But yeah i'm pretty sure Top Gun and Avatar have great chances of making Oscar nominations on BP, considering now it's 10 titles