Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[eddyxx]

14 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Palpatine.

Somehow Ike Perlnutter has returned.

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Jiffy said:

I would question Stewart having any real drawing power.

It depends on the movie. 

 

Pattinson never made a succesful movie after Twilight ends but he was a big name for Batman, people was extremelly excited for him in a big movie all over social media, but not for something like The Lighthouse, it happens. 

 

I'm pretty sure if Kristen gets a blockbuster, people would be excited.

[The Dark Alfred]

7 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

$50M next weekend should be the goal. Anything else is gravy. Think close to 40M the following weekend, usual 30-40% drops after July the 4th and a Labor Day expansion, preferably to cross the 600M mark. 

Agreed. Market is not quite ready for two juggernauts doing 230m+ combined. I think reaching 50m against JW after losing IMAX and PLF would be its most impressive achievement yet. I'd be happy with 45m and doing insane good holds the weekends after.

[cookie]

A drop below 50% should be considered a win IMO. The drops after that are going to be minimal unless it suddenly loses a bunch of theaters, anyhow.

[Eric is Quiet]

18 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Who would even be a good replacement for Chapek

Peter Rice. He's already at Disney as the chairman of their television division, has an incredible tenure at Fox in both the TV and film side of things, and seems well-liked by talent and corporate. He fits the bill perfectly IMO

[Tempus]

Absolutely stunning 2nd weekend for TGM but now I can't wait for next weekends numbers with JW releasing. Even 50M+ with that kind of competition would be amazing

[Brainbug]

Next weekend will be a big test for the market. Dominion is a wildcard for its OW gross, it could be potentially anything from 140 - 200M. And Top Gun certainly has the potential for a 50M+ third weekend, conservatively. The question is, can the market sustain such grosses already?

 

I hope so ofc.

[DAJK]

Yea, Top Gun ain’t no Fury Road.

 

It’s BETTER than Fury Road.

[ringedmortality]

12 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

RT is far more relevant in the culture though

To the average man it's more well known. But Metacritic is a better measure of critical reception. You can't say critic reviews are on the same level as Fury Road, critic's had Fury Road as the best film of 2015 overwhelmingly. The same won't happen with Top Gun.

[superduperm]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Next weekend will be a big test for the market. Dominion is a wildcard for its OW gross, it could be potentially anything from 140 - 200M. And Top Gun certainly has the potential for a 50M+ third weekend, conservatively. The question is, can the market sustain such grosses already?

 

I hope so ofc.

NWH gave Omnicron the middle finger and grossed $260M. I don’t see why JW3 + TG2 can’t manage $200M.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

32 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

This is definitely getting a lot of Oscar nominations(including BP/BD) btw, the reviews are almost on Fury Road level and that combined with the 550m-650m domestic total it will be impossible to ignore

It'll be lucky for Picture. Director is not happening. And the reviews are not close at all to Fury Road

[Macleod]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It'll be lucky for Picture. Director is not happening. And the reviews are not close at all to Fury Road

 

If there are 9-10 Best Picture nominees, I think this will be one of them, based on the overwhelming buzz so far.  Nominated for a lot of other technical categories, sure.  But may not win even as much as Fury Road.  My guess.  We'll see how the rest of the year's films shape out. 

[The Dark Alfred]

For Oscars I'd say possible to grab BP, editing, cinematography, sound, song, visual effects. Longshots: Cruise, score.

[cookie]

If JW3 does say $170m, and Top Gun still manages $50m+, that would push the overall top ten gross close to $250m or above. NWH did more than that by itself with Omicron raging. It was December then, but I think the market's recovered to the point that a top ten like that should be possible in June.

Edited June 5, 2022 by cookie

[John Marston]

Yes I think the best picture nom will happen solely due to their being ten nominees 

[SLAM!]

53 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

sucks the dinosaur movie is gonna take a lot of its screens next weekend

There’s no way there won’t be big drops across the board. With both Jurassic and Top Gun, the amount of screens given to other movies is about to shrink down significantly, and many theaters will probably cut films from the slate altogether to make space. Like, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 has had good legs and it’s currently in over 2,000 theaters, but we could see it lose like half its theaters or something crazy because the theaters need the space.

[Firepower]

15 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It'll be lucky for Picture. Director is not happening. And the reviews are not close at all to Fury Road

Picture is almost locked, director is possible. Critics don't vote in The Academy, you all forget that all the time, overall reception matters more than consesus of 400 people. Joker had 59 metacritic and grabbed 11 Oscars noms, including Picture and Director, more than any movie that year in the most competitive year of the decade because overall reception was incredible (minus filmtwitter backlash). And TGM has much better audience reception than Fury Road and Dune (and better critics reception than Dune).

Edited June 5, 2022 by Firepower

[lorddemaxus]

I think a BP nom might happen but it's not going to be a Fury Road level contender. Fury Road was a top 5 BP contender (possibly top 3). This will most likely have the kind of Oscar performance that something like Skyfall had (which would've gotten in with 10 BP nominees).

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Firepower said:

Picture is almost locked, director is possible. Critics don't vote in The Academy, you all forget that all the time, overall reception matters more than consesus of 400 people. Joker had 59 metacritic and grabbed 11 Oscars noms, including Picture and Director, more than any movie tha year in the most competitive year of the decade because overall reception was incredible (minus filmtwitter backlash)

Also because WB spent a shitton of money campaigning the movie and gave it a film-fest premiere. Paramount is going to be throwing all their money at Babylon. If overall reception mattered, we'd be having Spider-man win Best Picture, not something like Coda.

[Eric is Quiet]

I'm still adamant AMPAS will push blockbusters hard this year in a hopeless vain to get people watching their shows. And I'm more than confident the studios know this and will campaign hard on their potential blockbusters. Top Gun 2 getting in would not be that crazy IMO