Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[filmlover]

Top Gun has a chance at getting nominated now even if it ends up in the lower half of the nominees that would've missed in a field of 5 like Black Panther was with its zero above-the-tech-line support, although it depends on how strong Avatar 2 ends up being (the original was definitely a Top 5 contender with its Director nom). Techs could be strong, plus Original Song of course. Director and Screenplay, highly doubt it. Cruise, unlikely unless he publicly denounces Scientology (something he'll probably have to do if he even wants to be in contention for an Honorary Oscar someday) between now and the end of the year.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

6 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Picture is almost locked, director is possible. Critics don't vote in The Academy, you all forget that all the time, overall reception matters more than consesus of 400 people. Joker had 59 metacritic and grabbed 11 Oscars noms, including Picture and Director, more than any movie that year in the most competitive year of the decade because overall reception was incredible (minus filmtwitter backlash). And TGM has much better audience reception than Fury Road and Dune (and better critics reception than Dune).

I'll bet you anything director is not happening, that's how confident I am. It's not a visionary achievement and Cruise is the auteur of the film, not Kosinski. 

 

Joker had the best actor frontrunner and won Venice, which meant it had international and highbrow appeal. 

 

Villeneuve couldn't get in for Dune, you think Kosinski has a chance? Nolan was snubbed for Inception. 

 

And it's silly to say critics don't vote in Academy when the critical raves help films like Drive My Car yearly.

[LonePirate]

Paramount is estimating a 29.2% drop on Sunday for $25.2M for the day. This would be the second largest daily drop for the film following Tuesday's post-Memorial Day drop. I don't think it's dropping more than 15% let alone almost twice that.

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, Eric Mitchell said:

I'm still adamant AMPAS will push blockbusters hard this year in a hopeless vain to get people watching their shows. And I'm more than confident the studios know this and will campaign hard on their potential blockbusters. Top Gun 2 getting in would not be that crazy IMO

 

Oh, I'm positive they are thirsty af for viewers and TG2 is the absolute perfect candidate to give them what they want.  Huge, broad appeal, reviews, and massive box office means this will have across the board support for every award it can get.

 

I'm really dumb when it comes to awards shows though, lol.

[Firepower]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

If overall reception mattered, we'd be having Spider-man win Best Picture, not something like Coda.

You forget the fact they don't nominate CGI fest cartoons in most cases, Top Gun is in completely different blockbuster section, the one they tolerate. NWH reception wasn't related to some amazing quality, people just lost their minds because of nostalgia and fan service, but its audience rating dropped significantly after it hit VOD.

[ringedmortality]

People are gonna be perpetually disappointed everytime they say "10 nominees means we'll get *this* and *this* blockbuster" when in reality it's gonna result in nominees like Drive My Car and Nightmare Alley.

[ThomasNicole]

20 minutes ago, Macleod said:

 

If there are 9-10 Best Picture nominees, I think this will be one of them, based on the overwhelming buzz so far.  Nominated for a lot of other technical categories, sure.  But may not win even as much as Fury Road.  My guess.  We'll see how the rest of the year's films shape out. 

It's 10 now 

 

I'm betting 7 will be the usual type of movies, 1 will be international, and 2 will be Avatar and Top Gun because they need smash hits and both qualify as the type of blockbusters the members respect (extremelly beloved director for one, extremelly beloved star for the other)

[Felandria]

2 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Hard to get a pure comedy that will appeal to every nation to get a 1bn gross

Jumanji:WTTJ came damn close

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, Felandria said:

Jumanji:WTTJ came damn close

That's still an action blockbuster with comedy in it and based on IP

 

It's not like There's Something About Mary or Bridesmaids

[Maggie]

I wouldn't count on the Oscars. They are so different from the past when blockbusters could get in. Films like Titanic and Avatar won't be nominated nowadays. They had many opportunities in the past years to nominated films liked by the public, but they didn't.

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

People are gonna be perpetually disappointed everytime they say "10 nominees means we'll get *this* and *this* blockbuster" when in reality it's gonna result in nominees like Drive My Car and Nightmare Alley.

Like they nominated Dune last year? 

 

The question is the members, if it's up to the Academy as an institute, NWH would be there this year. 

 

But the members who actually vote always liked good blockbusters that relies on a strong type of traditional filmmaking, Fury Road and Dune entered because of that, SH movies struggle because they're the opposite. Top Gun is extremelly traditional and can easily get into this category, Paramount just needs to campaign.

[lorddemaxus]

We already got two sequels to blockbuster Best Picture nominees coming out this year. If both Black Panther 2 and Avatar 2 hit, I don't think is getting in. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

Like they nominated Dune last year? 

 

The question is the members, if it's up to the Academy as an institute, NWH would be there this year. 

 

But the members who actually vote always liked good blockbusters that relies on a strong type of traditional filmmaking, Fury Road and Dune entered because of that, SH movies struggle because they're the opposite. Top Gun is extremelly traditional and can easily get into this category, Paramount just needs to campaign.

Eh, Dune was still a prestige Villeneuve film. It won every technical award nominated, debuted at Venice, and he made the DGA as well as WGA. Part 2 might very well end up winning BP ala Return of the King

 

Top Gun has a chance with 10 but it's not very prestige, it's a sequel, and Paramount might not campaign heavily when they have Babylon. And getting Cruise to commit to months long campaign seems unlikely. Top Gun also will struggle to get into SAG + WGA + DGA which even most blockbusters can do like Black Panther. Academy voters will just vote for whatever they like and whatever is being pushed to them.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I wouldn't count on the Oscars. They are so different from the past when blockbusters could get in. Films like Titanic and Avatar won't be nominated nowadays. They had many opportunities in the past years to nominated films liked by the public, but they didn't.

 

Someone needs to slap the academy so theyre waking up and give popular blockbusters more chances.

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

People are gonna be perpetually disappointed everytime they say "10 nominees means we'll get *this* and *this* blockbuster" when in reality it's gonna result in nominees like Drive My Car and Nightmare Alley.

On the other hand, the AMPAS is desperate for some positive publicity coming off of arguably their most controversial year ever, and as others have said, both the original Avatar and the original Top Gun were movies that earned plenty of nominations from them when they came out. The Oscars aren't the Emmys: either they embrace you out the gate or never really embrace you at all, which is why beloved properties like Harry Potter or the MCU (minus Black Panther) never caught on with them.

[ringedmortality]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Like they nominated Dune last year? 

 

Dune was top 5 and had a lot of prestige going in. It's like arguing The Lord of the Rings and Mission Impossible are on the same level of prestige. Avatar also has prestige because of Cameron.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

We already got two sequels to blockbuster Best Picture nominees coming out this year. If both Black Panther 2 and Avatar 2 hit, I don't think is getting in. 

I don't see BP2 getting nominated over TG2.

[ringedmortality]

Just now, filmlover said:

On the other hand, the AMPAS is desperate for some positive publicity coming off of arguably their most controversial year ever, and as others have said, both the original Avatar and the original Top Gun were movies that earned plenty of nominations from them when they came out. The Oscars aren't the Emmys: either they embrace you out the gate or never really embrace you at all, which is why beloved properties like Harry Potter or the MCU (minus Black Panther) never caught on with them.

 

The broader academy has never actually cared about ratings. They will continue to nominate whatever they want to nominate.

[Firepower]

5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I'll bet you anything director is not happening, that's how confident I am. It's not a visionary achievement and Cruise is the auteur of the film, not Kosinski. 

 

Joker had the best actor frontrunner and won Venice, which meant it had international and highbrow appeal. 

 

Villeneuve couldn't get in for Dune, you think Kosinski has a chance? Nolan was snubbed for Inception. 

 

And it's silly to say critics don't vote in Academy when the critical raves help films like Drive My Car yearly.

Kosinski's contribution is still significant, he actually pitched his version to Cruise which convinced him to do it, his pitch included heart of the film, real stunts andbhe even pitched the title and bringed Miles Teller and Jennifer Connelly in. If it gets a big push from Paramount, he can get a nod.

 

It's silly to say critics vote in Academy because they in fact don't vote in Academy, they don't have membership Ethan Hawke was pushed incredibly hard for Best Actor by critics, he won every single critics award and he wasn't even nominated in the end.

[ringedmortality]

ITT: People who don't follow awards saying Top Gun is a sure thing arguing with people that do follow awards saying it's not likely.