Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[LegendaryBen]

1 hour ago, Juby said:

Maverick is another proof that if a movie is destined to be smashing hit, it will be a hit no matter what. Do You rememeber our February discussion (in The Batman threat) about TDK and how someone claims that the film broke OW record and exceeded $500m gross domestic only/mainly due to Heath's death? And it was based on the Batman Begins box office run and TDK's (under)predictions from day one? Nope, TDK was an overwhelming hit and it would have been a crushing hit, even without Heath dying. It was the return of the Joker character after 19 years and Heath's incredible perfomance, not his death the reason why TDK broke out so much. Such things happen, especially with the highly anticipated sequels.

 

Now let's go back to TGM. If $90 million 2nd weekend is true than the bare minimum the movie should add is $185 million (the same as Beauty and the Beast in 2017 added after its $90.4m 2nd weekend). Ofc it's not gonna happen. B&tB had more competition, smaller days of the mid-week in March-May, and wasn't received as well as TGM. So, $480 million is locked for 100%.

 

Let's compare Maverick to TDK. Batman's opening was $31.7m bigger than Tom's, but after 10 days the gap narrowed, possibly to around $18.2m. TDK had great legs, it had been in theaters for 8 months, but there were a lot of films in calendar than, now we'll have only one major release each week, so Top Gun's legs could be even better. Let's see how Mav will do next weekend, TDK faced smaller competition (third Mummy, and he won!), TGM will face a possible +$150 million opener and will lose all large format on Friday. This could be the reason why people decited to see the film this weekend (last chance to see this in IMAX), and maybe the next weekend TGM will lose over 50% of the audience? We'll see, for now I think beating The Lion King's $544m domestic is achievable.

 

I don't think i will drop 60% either.

[eddyxx]

8 hours ago, krla said:

Does Top Gun: Maverick even meet the Academy's new diversity requirements to be nominated for an Oscar? It was filmed like 2 years before the new rules came in, so I doubt they had the foresight to stack the crew with minorities. 

 

wait wait what?

[CJohn]

There is a strong chance Dominion is 2nd here in Portugal this weekend. Top Gun sold 85.000 tickets this weekend (a minor 15% drop from OW), while FK opened with 70.000 tickets sold... oh my oh my. 

[Brainbug]

13 minutes ago, CJohn said:

There is a strong chance Dominion is 2nd here in Portugal this weekend. Top Gun sold 85.000 tickets this weekend (a minor 15% drop from OW), while FK opened with 70.000 tickets sold... oh my oh my. 

 

Honestly though if Dominion also opens with 70K admissions and Top Gun still comes ahead - that would say a lot more about Top Gun than JW.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

9 hours ago, krla said:

Does Top Gun: Maverick even meet the Academy's new diversity requirements to be nominated for an Oscar? It was filmed like 2 years before the new rules came in, so I doubt they had the foresight to stack the crew with minorities. 

Those rules don't go into effect until 2024 (the ceremony for the films of 2023). Anyway, the guidelines are pretty broad and include offscreen representation (like costumers and studio publicists), even 1917 meets them. Top Gun: Maverick would've been totally fine even if it did have to fulfill Academy diversity requirements.

 

https://variety.com/2020/film/awards/oscars-inclusion-diversity-rules-standards-explained-1234763473/#!

 

 

[IceFire9yt]

7 hours ago, Xavier said:

So how many middling movies/performances would you say will take for the MCU to have a real problem? Because I think Eternals, Black Widow and the mixed bag MCU D+ shows have paved the way.

I suspect Eternals would have had an underwhelming performance even in ideal conditions (poor reception for a non-sequel movie).  Though I do find it interesting that you decided to exclude Shang-Chi from the disappointments list, even though it only made 30M more than Eternals worldwide. 

 

But come on, man, Black Widow was simultaneously released on VOD, how could you possibly compare box office performance?  All movies in 2021 were released in exceptionally challenging circumstances, I think it takes some motivation too go through and start judging movies that were running in theaters during a pandemic. 

They all did just fine in terms of search traffic in comparison to previous and later MCU hits, or to other 2021 movies.  And based on that, it looks like tons of people just skipped watching them in theaters and picked them up later on Disney+.  Disney+ more than anything hurt Disney's movies at the box office.  See how Encanto made much less than Sing 2, despite Encanto becoming a cultural phenomenon with a song that hit #1 on the Hot 100 and dominating in streaming.  Even lower down are Cruella, Jungle Cruise, and Raya.

Edited June 6, 2022 by IceFire9yt

[EmpireCity]

So, didn't quite get to $30m after the very early numbers yesterday, but looks to be right around $29.25m or so.  That would give Paramount their $90.05m opening weekend and headline.  

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

6 hours ago, Xavier said:

So how many middling movies/performances would you say will take for the MCU to have a real problem? Because I think Eternals, Black Widow and the mixed bag MCU D+ shows have paved the way.

 

Black Widow is not a release that can be reasonably evaluated.

 

The MCU D+ Shows don't really show anything BoxOffice wise. They have had varied receptions, sure, but none overwhelmingly negative to anywhere near the point of damaging the brand.

 

Eternals was a known risk but, yes, a disappointment (and as commentated above, I think likely would have been regardless of context)

 

I would say over the next year if more than two of:

 

Thor goes under 850m

Black Panther 2 goes under 900m

Quantumania goes under 650m

GOTG3 goes under 800m

and The Marvels goes under 800m

 

......then the MCU is visibly tailing off. Whereas if one or none of those things happen then it isn't.

 

If more than two of 

 

Thor goes over 950m

BP2 goes over 1b

Quantumania goes over 800m

GOTG3 goes over 900m

The Marvels goes over 900m

 

.....Then the MCU is going from strength to strength.

 

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

18 minutes ago, IceFire9yt said:

Though I do find it interesting that you decided to exclude Shang-Chi from the disappointments list, even though it only made 30M more than Eternals worldwide. 

 

I'd argue that Shang-Chi suffered from a much rougher COVID situation internationally. In the US with comparable pandemic scenario SC was a more definitive hit, with Eternals a more definitive meh.

 

Plus SC has a budget listed as 150-200, Eternals 200. That might be the same but if SC was closer to 150 then thats a significant multiplier difference. And on top of that despite both properties being lesser known you've got the solo lead with a lesser name star, versus an ensemble epic film with at least one A-Lister in Jolie.

[Jiffy]

20 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

So, didn't quite get to $30m after the very early numbers yesterday, but looks to be right around $29.25m or so.  That would give Paramount their $90.05m opening weekend and headline.  

Very nice.

[Dragoncaine]

26 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

So, didn't quite get to $30m after the very early numbers yesterday, but looks to be right around $29.25m or so.  That would give Paramount their $90.05m opening weekend and headline.  

What a ride.

[Brainbug]

28 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

So, didn't quite get to $30m after the very early numbers yesterday, but looks to be right around $29.25m or so.  That would give Paramount their $90.05m opening weekend and headline.  

 

 

I totally agree, this is a very solid OW for Top Gun.

 

Spoiler

 

[Tokugennumataka]

Best second Sundays of all time:

1. Avengers: Endgame - 45.12M (-50.1%) 

2. Star Wars: TFA - 43.15M (-28.7%) 

3. Jurassic World - 38.36M (-32.9%, Fathers Day) 

4. Avengers: Infinity War - 36.64M (-47.1%) 

5. Black Panther - 35.32M (-41.2%) 

6. Spider-Man: NWH - 33.28M (-48.2%, Boxing Day) 

7. The Avengers - 30.92M (-45.8%) 

8. Top Gun: Maverick - 29.25M (-20.3%) 

9. Beauty and the Beast - 28.53M (-40.9%) 

10. Rogue One: ASWS- 25.87M (-31.4%, Christmas Day)

[DC Rich]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

So, didn't quite get to $30m after the very early numbers yesterday, but looks to be right around $29.25m or so.  That would give Paramount their $90.05m opening weekend and headline.  

 

You get our hopes up just to crush them.  Cruel man.  😁

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

 

I totally agree, this is a very solid OW for Top Gun.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

If TGM opened to a $90m on OW, I can imagine there will be some a huge disappointment but now this $90m in 2nd weekend suddenly turn people OMG!!! Amazing how BO worked with just a week difference.  

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

Black Widow is not a release that can be reasonably evaluated.

 

The MCU D+ Shows don't really show anything BoxOffice wise. They have had varied receptions, sure, but none overwhelmingly negative to anywhere near the point of damaging the brand.

 

Eternals was a known risk but, yes, a disappointment (and as commentated above, I think likely would have been regardless of context)

 

I would say over the next year if more than two of:

 

Thor goes under 850m

Black Panther 2 goes under 900m

Quantumania goes under 650m

GOTG3 goes under 800m

and The Marvels goes under 800m

 

......then the MCU is visibly tailing off. Whereas if one or none of those things happen then it isn't.

 

If more than two of 

 

Thor goes over 950m

BP2 goes over 1b

Quantumania goes over 800m

GOTG3 goes over 900m

The Marvels goes over 900m

 

.....Then the MCU is going from strength to strength.

 

 

There was always going to be a 'rough patch' or whatever you want to call it when you start introducing new characters.  Having the first 3 movies after Endgame be Black Widow, Shang Chi, and Eternals isn't as sure a bet as we are seeing with this years lineup.  I don't remember if that's the order they would have been released before COVID or not, but it's what we got.  

 

The thing about the MCU is that there have been movies that were viewed as disappointments, but didn't really damage the brand going forward, at least not as much as other franchises might have seen.   Thor 2 is commonly viewed as one of the worst in the entire series, and yet Thor 3 increased!  I know a lot happened between those two(like Ultron which is also seen as a disappointment) but that's kinda the point.

 

I don't think DS2 is going to hurt Thor 3 and by the time we get back to a third Dr. Strange I don't think people will care about what pissed them off about the second one.  It will almost certainly drop, because $400m for a solo entry is still a lot!

[jaybox]

I’m so late on this. But that’s one of the craziest drops I’ve ever seen. Wow. Well deserved movie was pure fun. 

[Joyous Legion]

13 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

It will almost certainly drop, because $400m for a solo entry is still a lot!

DS2 is admittedly the first 2nd entry where they really cranked up the eventness, so some regression to the mean could be an issue… but DS2 dien’t really deliver there in the end and presumably DS3 will also go pretty hard on that in classic mcu threequel style. And since it’ll probably wait for 2027 or something (~16% inflation), small nominal increase shouldn’t be too hard with an A.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[SupermanLego]

25 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

There was always going to be a 'rough patch' or whatever you want to call it when you start introducing new characters.  Having the first 3 movies after Endgame be Black Widow, Shang Chi, and Eternals isn't as sure a bet as we are seeing with this years lineup.  I don't remember if that's the order they would have been released before COVID or not, but it's what we got.  

 

The thing about the MCU is that there have been movies that were viewed as disappointments, but didn't really damage the brand going forward, at least not as much as other franchises might have seen.   Thor 2 is commonly viewed as one of the worst in the entire series, and yet Thor 3 increased!  I know a lot happened between those two(like Ultron which is also seen as a disappointment) but that's kinda the point.

 

I don't think DS2 is going to hurt Thor 3 and by the time we get back to a third Dr. Strange I don't think people will care about what pissed them off about the second one.  It will almost certainly drop, because $400m for a solo entry is still a lot!

You can shove all mcu characters into a movie but as long the title of the movie is that of one character it's a "solo" movie looool "solo" movies have lost all their meaning.

[Jiffy]

Just realized when did Gitesh stop doing his weekend analysis over at BOG?