WEEKEND THREAD: No one went to the Danger Zone :( 145M JWD, 51.8M TGM, EEAAO reaches 61 DOM

[LegendaryBen]

8 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Is TBG still heading to 100m? It should come close to $92m+ by the time when LY open to give a direct competition. 

If Universal doesn't fudge their numbers with Minions on 7/1, sadly it will not happen. Still, an amazing run, especially overseas. This weekend was a perfect opportunity for Universal to do drive ins with JWD when it was more compatible than Firestarter.

[LegendaryBen]

I've said earlier in my post, NBA Finals may have deflated the Friday numbers (although their ratings are still off from pre-pandemic). It would not shock me if JWD has $50M+ and Top Gun is in the low 20s today.

 

BTW, I only predicted $41M for TGM's 3rd weekend so for it to get to nearly $50M (depending on how much NBA affected last night, it may be more) considering it lost all of its Dolby, PLF (some theaters still have Prime but is sharing with JWD) and IMAX theaters is quite fantastic. It's a lock for $550M+ and $600M is still possible. Heck, JWD may still reach $400M if it has a good increase today vs. it's true Friday.

 

Let's also mention that EEAO may still reach $70m against only a $25m budget and TLC had some great late legs and a solid run overseas as well. TBG will need to hope that Universal will fudge their numbers with Minions 2 and Nope to get to the $100M mark. Too bad, it's already releasing to DVD on 06/21. Still, its multiplier is quite impressive and its overseas run has push it to the profitability levels ($223M+ Worldwide)

Edited June 11, 2022 by LegendaryBen

[grey ghost]

10 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

POTC 3 absolutely did conclude a story arc.

 

Oh okay, I wasn't sure.

 

I only saw the first one.

[poweranimals]

37 minutes ago, budice said:

JWD Reviews: "your brain is getting effed by stupid."

 

OW: $140M

Let's not pretend that we weren't expecting this to hit $200 million OW though. Would it have gotten there with better reviews? Doubtful, but I suspect it would've gotten a lot closer.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

The most tone deaf (no pun intended) moment in the Lightyear promotion was when Troy Kotsur won for CODA, gave an emotional speech and had everyone tearing up and then we cut to Chris Evans congratulating him in a pre-recorded message and throwing it to a Lightyear trailer.

 

That was tonal whiplash.

And somewhere on a hard drive, there are four other videos, where Chris Evans congratulates Kodi Smit-McPhee, Ciarán Hinds, Jesse Plemons and J.K. Simmons for their Oscar wins. It's like the movie world's version of the "Super Bowl Champions" shirts for the losing team. I'd love to see those clips, along with the ad Lionsgate surely had ready to go to bask in La La Land's Best Picture triumph, instead of this...

 

 

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Let's not pretend that we weren't expecting this to hit $200 million OW though. Would it have gotten there with better reviews? Doubtful, but I suspect it would've gotten a lot closer.

Yeah. I think with a better reception even if not an outstanding reception it was going to lock up 175M+ OW DOM.

[Avatree]

I'm booking my tickets for the 7:30pm show of JW tomorrow... And the screen is literally empty, no other seats sold yet. 😕

[JohnnyGossamer]

Pretty excited to see the overall weekend numbers this coming 4th of July weekend. Gonna really feel like things are much closer to back with I assume Maverick, Jurassic World, Lightyear, Elvis and Minions all comfortably double digit millions each that weekend... I imagine that'll be the first time during since the pandemic began that there will be 5 movies grossing 10M+ minimum. All actually could do a minimum of 20M+ that weekend if the holds are decent and the holiday being on Monday boosts them enough.

Edited June 11, 2022 by JohnnyGossamer

[LegendaryBen]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

Pretty excited to see the overall weekend numbers this coming 4th of July weekend. Gonna really feel like things are much close to back with I assume Maverick, Jurassic World, Lightyear, Elvis and Minions all comfortably doubt digit millions each that weekend... I imagine that'll be the first time during since the pandemic began that there will be 5 movies grossing 10M+ minimum. All actually could do a minimum of 20M+ that weekend if the holds are decent and the holiday being on Monday boosts them enough.

There's also a chance for 5 $20M+ grossers on the weekend of 06/24 if The Black Phone does a Candyman-type run.

[keysersoze123]

50 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

I've said earlier in my post, NBA Finals may have deflated the Friday numbers (although their ratings are still off from pre-pandemic). It would not shock me if JWD has $50M+ and Top Gun is in the low 20s today.

I dont know where TGM sales are looking at alpha data for JWD does not look like a big increase. So far sales look flattish compared to yesterday. It should have better walkups for matinees but I expect greater sales of kid tickets combined with morning tickets being cheaper impacting gross. Too early to predict exact number. 

[LegendaryBen]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont know where TGM sales are looking at alpha data for JWD does not look like a big increase. So far sales look flattish compared to yesterday. It should have better walkups for matinees but I expect greater sales of kid tickets combined with morning tickets being cheaper impacting gross. Too early to predict exact number. 

Thanks for all of your hard work! It never goes unnoticed. Hoping Lightyear for a 85M+ opening.

[DAR]

Pretty full for my screening this morning.   Crowd seemed to enjoy it.   I had fun with it too.  
 

Funny side note there were two kids under five next to me and two of the trailers were the Black Phone and Three Thousand Years of Longing.   Those didn’t go over quite as well.

[Juby]

The Dark Knight after 17 days in release = $393.75m / later added $139.6m

 

The Avengers after 17 days in release = $457.7m / later added $165.7m

 

Jurassic World after 17 days in release = $500.4m / later added $151.9m

 

Incredibles 2 after 17 days in release = $440.6m / later added $168m

 

Top Gun: Maverick after 17 days in release ~ $393.3m (at least according to Deadline, I believe it will be closer to $396m) and should add more than any of four above (Father's Day weekend + 4th of July weekend + not as much wide releases as it was pre-pandemic + almost empty August/September). Beating TDK seems locked at this point. $550m not yet (1st, 2nd and 3rd weekends of TGM are smaller than first three JW weekends, so from now on it might add less than $152m). $600m is still in the game, but it won't be as easy as many thought it would be few days ago. I'm predicting $575-580m at the moment, the worst case scenario $545m.

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Juby

[LegendaryBen]

Just now, Juby said:

The Dark Knight after 17 days in release = $393.75m / later added $139.6m

 

The Avengers after 17 days in release = $457.7m / later added $165.7m

 

Jurassic World after 17 days in release = $500.4m / later added $151.9m

 

Incredibles 2 after 17 days in release = $440.6m / later added $168m

 

Top Gun: Maverick after 17 days in release ~ $393.3m (at least according to Deadline, I believe it will be closer to $396m) and should add more than any of four above (Father's Day weekend + 4th of July weekend + not as much wide releases as it was pre-pandemic + almost empty August/September). Beating TDK seems locked at this point. $550m not yet (1st, 2nd and 3rd weekends of TGM are smaller than first three JW weekends, so from now on it might add less than $152m). $600m still is in the game, but it won't be as easy as many thought it would be few days ago. I'm predicting $575-585m at the moment, the worst case scenario $545m.

Still an excellent total. Users need to stop complaining about its drop. Losing PLF/Imax/Dolby screens will cause a larger than normal drop. Great analysis.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

So Top Gun: Maverick is currently at $357M DOM today. Overtaking Aladdin’s $355M, as the highest grossing film released on Memorial Day Weekend.

 

What next box office goal is there for TGM?

Edited June 11, 2022 by MrFanaticGuy34

[Brainbug]

I dont think it is really worth a discussion how we should rate Dominions OW. As someone who thought that this movie had a small chance to outgross JW's OW, its clear to me that

 

1) This OW is disappointing considering my and many others' pre-release expectations and

 

2) Its still a good opening that shows how big this franchise is. For a Non-CBM franchise, it doesnt get more successfull than Jurassic Park/World and Star Wars at the moment. Ofc, Avatar will change that probably on a massive scale this December, but still, no one can deny Jurassic Worlds appeal to the GA and i think nobody is.

 

I too think ofc that the movie would get a higher OW with great reviews. Good reviews always help while bad ones never do.

[grey ghost]

18 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

So Top Gun: Maverick is currently at $357M DOM today. Overtaking Aladdin’s $355M, as the highest grossing film released on Memorial Day Weekend.

 

What next box office goal is there for TGM?

 

Biggest Paramount sequel? 

 

I think the biggest is Transformers Revenge of the Fallen (402m).

[MrFanaticGuy34]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Biggest Paramount sequel? 

 

I think the biggest is Transformers Revenge of the Fallen (402m).

Yeah. What’s impressive is that Top Gun 2’s OW is higher than all those Transformers films, and it’s gonna beat Transformers 2’s DOM gross.

[Brainbug]

Fallen Kingdom had a Sat gross of 49,7M which was a 15% increase from its True Friday of 43,2M.

 

Dominion with what appears to be a bit worse WOM will probably also increase a bit less, lets say 12%, which would be a 46,47M Sat. I cant see it getting an increase lower than 10%, which would be 45,65M. At the same time, i dont think it will be able to post a better increase than FK at 15%, which would be 47,7M.

 

So my Saturday prediction is 45,65M - 47,7M. 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[Felandria]

2 hours ago, LegendaryBen said:

If Universal doesn't fudge their numbers with Minions on 7/1, sadly it will not happen. Still, an amazing run, especially overseas. This weekend was a perfect opportunity for Universal to do drive ins with JWD when it was more compatible than Firestarter.

Even worse, some theaters paired JWD with LAND OF THE LOST