WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[El Squibbonator]

13 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

 That gives me a list of 45 markets that had opening weekends of 42.8M whenever they opened (so not opening weekend).

That doesn't make any sense. Cars 3 had earned 74.8M worldwide in its opening weekend, while Lightyear made 85.6M worldwide in its own opening weekend. 

 

If Lightyear wants to avoid being a total disaster, it's going to need to rely on the strength of the overseas market. 

Edited June 19, 2022 by El Squibbonator

[CJohn]

Lightyear truly is Solo 2.0. What a shitshow. I am guessing Strange World getting a short 30 day window in order to be on Disney+ by Christmas day is best case scenario at this point.

[Borobudur]

The summer has more bad news than good news actually so far. Between DS2 garbage hold, JWD terrible review and meh opening, and now LY bomb, TGM is the sole great story we have. Which movie can be the next good news for moviegoing beside Thor 4? 

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, Eric Lightyear said:

That's not enough IMO. I know you keep saying families prefer the big screen, but I have seen little evidence of that. If they did, they would have gone to see Lightyear. I'll argue families prefer Disney+ because it's way cheaper and way more convenient. And people like convenience.

 

The only way I could see families "preferring" theatres for Disney movies is if they came to Disney+ like a year later, which we both know will never happen. I'm sorry, but the genie is out of the bottle and we can't get it back. Even if Chapek leaves, and everything is magically better, people will still like this convenience. It's over.

your argument is right. They do prefer the cheapest route, and that is poison for the whole industry.  That’s my point exactly. 
 

of course everybody wants everything for nothing these days. Streaming has caused that where the pricing for what you get is so out of whack with reality. It’s already happened to music. 
 

but these movies that cost hundreds of millions of dollars to make simply cannot sustain people not wanting to pay what they’re worth. 
 

and when I say prefer the theatre, those families would prefer to see them in all their glory if they got to pay the pittance they’re paying for Disney+. Who wouldn’t? The simple answer is to not put them on there so quickly in the first place. 

[Jake Lockley]

3 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

The summer has more bad news than good news actually so far. Between DS2 garbage hold, JWD terrible review and meh opening, and now LY bomb, TGM is the sole great story we have. Which movie can be the next good news for moviegoing beside Thor 4? 

I'm hoping we get some Ws with Elvis and Thor.

[PlatnumRoyce]

15 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 

Good data, though I know EntTelligence (according to Charlie at least) overestimates average prices. I also noticed at my AMC that the price I paid for MOM 2D IMAX (Thursday, 7PM) was 23% higher than the exact same showing for Endgame. 

 

Makes you wonder how impressive some recent performances really are? I'm curious if NWH actually surpassed SM1 in ticket sales (DOM). 

Thanks, I check out what Charlie's had to say on the matter. 

I thought Spider-Man v. Spider-Man was an incredibly fun race people were downplaying. Just using real world inflation to fill gap, SM1 would have grossed ~700M versus NWH's 800M. If we assume PLF/IMAX screens average 50% higher prices than normal tickets (basically true) and SM1 had no PLF/IMAX screens (false but I'm not sure how to estimate it), the breakeven point is if ~3 out of every 8 tickets sold to NWH were special or surcharge tickets. That's clearly too high for the entire film's run so we don't have to estimate SM1's IMAX share but it highlights how it was a decently close run thing. 

[Eric S'ennui]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Lightyear truly is Solo 2.0. What a shitshow. I am guessing Strange World getting a short 30 day window in order to be on Disney+ by Christmas day is best case scenario at this point.

Note that this tweet says “see the movie this November”. There’s no word about it going to theaters or even during Thanksgiving. Lightyear did the same thing, so obviously this isn’t set in stone, but that wording is a wee bit sus, so a first weekend of November D+ launch isn’t completely off the table.

 

 

[Zucch11]

1 hour ago, Eric Lightyear said:

That's not enough IMO. I know you keep saying families prefer the big screen, but I have seen little evidence of that. If they did, they would have gone to see Lightyear. I'll argue families prefer Disney+ because it's way cheaper and way more convenient. And people like convenience.

 

The only way I could see families "preferring" theatres for Disney movies is if they came to Disney+ like a year later, which we both know will never happen. I'm sorry, but the genie is out of the bottle and we can't get it back. Even if Chapek leaves, and everything is magically better, people will still like this convenience. It's over.

 

Ofcourse parents will prefer paying ~$80 a year and getting unlimited movies and shows for "free" over spending $100+ on a night out to the movies, the question is why has Disney made (and continues to make) that calculus so easy for them? I agree that it might be too late to put that genie in the bottle, I also think this is gonna impact animated movies in general beyond Disney... I can see the new Minions movie undershooting expectations in a couple of weeks as I don't think most normal people can tell the difference between what is a Disney or Dreamworks movie and will just expect to see it on a streaming service in short order.

Edited June 19, 2022 by Zucch11

[wildphantom]

25 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

 

Cars 3 was spread out - UK (3.5m),Germany (2.5m), Italy (4.2m) opened in August, July and 2x September respectively. Brazil (3.1m) opened in July too. And Spain (1.8m), Sweden (1.25m), Argentina (2.1m), South Korea (1.7m), Australia (1.7m), Chile (1.0m) (July, September, July, July and June but a week later and July).

Adding just those (missing all countries opening below 1m) increases it to 44m. And with all those opening below 1m it's probably looking at 52m or so

This movie only has France (5.1m), Japan (2.8m for Cars 3) and Turkey opening later (0.8m for Cars 3) and Cars 3 had China too (opened with 10m, finished with 20m).

maybe it will do better in France as they aren’t getting the movie on Disney+ when the rest of the world will. Lol. Oh the irony that would be. 

[El Squibbonator]

In all seriousness-- and I do mean seriousness, so no sarcastic or doomsaying answers, please-- what impact will Lightyear have on theatrical films at Pixar from here on out? 

 

Even if it manages to have a strong showing overseas and claw its way to 400M, I can't imagine the folks at Disney being especially happy with what I'm sure they imagined being an 800M movie. So where do we go from there? They can't really use the pandemic as an excuse to keep Pixar movies out of theaters anymore, so what now? 

Edited June 19, 2022 by El Squibbonator

[Ozymandias]

So one could say there was no Buzz for Lightyear?

 

 

[Ozymandias]

1 hour ago, Ethan Hunt said:

In what world was Resurrections a critical flop lmfao

 

the one where everybody laughed at it

[Jonwo]

6 minutes ago, El Squibbonator said:

In all seriousness-- and I do mean seriousness, so no sarcastic or doomsaying answers, please-- what impact will Lightyear have on theatrical films at Pixar from here on out? 

 

Even if it manages to have a strong showing overseas and claw its way to 400M, I can't imagine the folks at Disney being especially happy with what I'm sure they imagined being an 800M movie. So where do we go from there? They can't really use the pandemic as an excuse to keep Pixar movies out of theaters anymore, so what now? 

I don't see Pixar becoming a Disney+ only producer but I think their budgets will be looked at or reduced to be more in line with WDAS. 

[Eric S'ennui]

10 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

your argument is right. They do prefer the cheapest route, and that is poison for the whole industry.  That’s my point exactly. 
 

of course everybody wants everything for nothing these days. Streaming has caused that where the pricing for what you get is so out of whack with reality. It’s already happened to music. 
 

but these movies that cost hundreds of millions of dollars to make simply cannot sustain people not wanting to pay what they’re worth. 
 

and when I say prefer the theatre, those families would prefer to see them in all their glory if they got to pay the pittance they’re paying for Disney+. Who wouldn’t? The simple answer is to not put them on there so quickly in the first place. 

Well I guess Bob Iger should have realized all of this when he decided to make a streaming service.

7 minutes ago, Zucch11 said:

 

Ofcourse parents will prefer paying ~$80 a year and getting unlimited movies and shows for "free" over spending $100+ on a night out to the movies, the question is why has Disney made (and continues to make) that calculus so easy for them? I agree that it might be too late to put that genie in the bottle, I also think this is gonna impact animated movies in general beyond Disney... I can see the new Minions movie undershooting expectations in a couple of weeks as I don't think most people normal can tell the difference between what is a Disney or Dreamworks movie and will just expect to see it on a streaming service in short order.

Nah. Disney movies emphasize studio branding on their movies way more than the other studios. All their movies have the Disney logo on their movie names and everybody knows Marvel and Star Wars are now Disney properties.

 

Outside of a confused grandpa here and there, people can surmise that Despicable Me is not a Disney franchise. There’s not Disney logo, they’re not at the Disney parks, none of the other Despicable Me movies are on Disney+, and so on. Nobody will think Minions 2 is a Disney movie. That’s why the movie will probably open well.

[El Squibbonator]

I suppose not. I'm still desperately trying to find a positive in all this. Maybe it'll do better overseas than we thought. Maybe it at least manages to reach 400M worldwide. Maybe Minions: The Rise of Gru also underperforms, and Lightyear has at least a little bit of wiggle room in July. But in the back of my mind, I know that no matter what happens, this is going to go down as a serious disappointment at best. 

Edited June 19, 2022 by El Squibbonator

[wildphantom]

5 minutes ago, El Squibbonator said:

In all seriousness-- and I do mean seriousness, so no sarcastic or doomsaying answers, please-- what impact will Lightyear have on theatrical films at Pixar from here on out? 

 

Even if it manages to have a strong showing overseas and claw its way to 400M, I can't imagine the folks at Disney being especially happy with what I'm sure they imagined being an 800M movie. So where do we go from there? They can't really use the pandemic as an excuse to keep Pixar movies out of theaters anymore, so what now? 

Maybe they’ll go “well why make $400 million at the box office when instead we can make $0 and put it straight on Disney+!”  Lol

 

Chapek’s continual “we’ll be flexible to what our customers want” is hilarious. Guess what! Lots of them that can wait a month will happily take everything for pretty much nothing. What a shock! 

 

They used to buy a ticket, rent it, buy it. Now their average spend a year on your entire catalogue is what they used to spend on one or two films! 
 

They can even share a password and let their families and neighbours watch it all for $0! Brilliant! 

[Ladybug]

4 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

 

 

[Jonwo]

Minions will still make money even if it did half of the first.

[Ladybug]

Shocked, but not 100% surprised about LY's underperformance. I follow a lot of Disney bloggers and general animation fans on social media and I didn't see the same amount of buzz and discussion for it prior to release as I did with Soul, Luca, and Turning Red. It's just a movie that doesn't have that "must-see" factor. Having not one, but two other alternatives for a Father's Day theatre outing didn't help either.

 

While my gut instinct tells me this won't be a deterrent for Disney sending Pixar films to theatrical in the long run, methinks Disney seriously needs to rethink/overhaul their theatrical-to-D+ release strategy.

[TwoMisfits]

12 minutes ago, Eric Lightyear said:

Well I guess Bob Iger should have realized all of this when he decided to make a streaming service.

Nah. Disney movies emphasize studio branding on their movies way more than the other studios. All their movies have the Disney logo on their movie names and everybody knows Marvel and Star Wars are now Disney properties.

 

Outside of a confused grandpa here and there, people can surmise that Despicable Me is not a Disney franchise. There’s not Disney logo, they’re not at the Disney parks, none of the other Despicable Me movies are on Disney+, and so on. Nobody will think Minions 2 is a Disney movie. That’s why the movie will probably open well.

 

And while it's not yet announced, I'm betting that TMobile will be offering some sort of Atom ticket deal for the Minions OW to help parents stomach the kid ticket costs and to get "good" OW WOM rolling to get other families in for matinees for the summer...

 

After this open, they almost have to...(I'd hate for Paws of Fury to be the one that gets the summer deal and have that one surprise, b/c god, that preview looks like a straight-to-streaming Kung Fu Panda rip off)...