WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[TomCruiseTop]

39 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Might have to wait u til September/October 

Avatar has September, Spider-Man too.

[Eric S'ennui]

40 minutes ago, John Marston said:

As much as TG deserves Imax screens again I think the screens are locked up for the rest of the summer. Might have to wait u til September/October 

August 26 sounds about right. Bullet Train and ET fill up the first two weekends, August 19 will have Dragon Ball and probably Beast with Idris Elba, and Labor Day has Jaws. The 26th has a bunch of movies I've never heard of before, and IMAX re-releases usually happen in the dead of August. I know some may be annoyed by that, but you just have to be patient.

[XXR & Friends]

9 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Clearly over 800M, no? We've clearly seen more than 10% inflation on blockbuster ticket prices since the middle of 2019.

 

Correct. We have seen more than 10% inflation since then. More than 10% inflation since the middle of 2021, even. But prices where mostly steady with only incremental increase in the decade prior to that. Give it 1% per year from 2015 to 2021 and then 12% in the last 12 months. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

Does anyone have any thoughts on the quorum's public tracking data? It really aggressively argues against the "people are waiting for pixar at home"  but I'm not sure how well correlated it really has been to box office results. 

 

https://thequorum.com/film/?filmID=202

[wildphantom]

15 minutes ago, DAR said:

And what can they do?

not put their flagship movies on tv for free after seven weeks 

[wildphantom]

Stanton even co-wrote the last episode of Obi-Wan. And he’s written this week’s finale 

[filmlover]

Everyone seems eager to go after Disney but it's easy to forget that animated movies for the most part were treated like the red-headed stepchild by all the studios throughout the pandemic era. Sony had no problem selling off all their animated titles to streaming services while WB didn't even bother sitting on Scoob! for a later date. The Addams Family 2 was made available to watch at home the same time as theaters. Not to mention Trolls 2 becoming a streaming smash to the point that Universal/DreamWorks is willing to give a third one a shot as a theatrical exclusive. Sing 2 made more than The Secret Life of Pets 2 under worse marketplace conditions, but still posted a pretty hefty drop from its predecessor. We're gonna have to wait and see if families have become used to kids movies premiering at home after nearly two years of such.

Edited June 19, 2022 by filmlover

[DAR]

Has WB stopped sending its films to HBO Max after 45 days?  Just wondering about Elvis next week.

[filmlover]

Just now, DAR said:

Has WB stopped sending its films to HBO Max after 45 days?  Just wondering about Elvis next week.

I think it was announced earlier this year that all their movies will be made available on HBO Max 45 days after opening.

[ringedmortality]

8 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on the quorum's public tracking data? It really aggressively argues against the "people are waiting for pixar at home"  but I'm not sure how well correlated it really has been to box office results. 

 

https://thequorum.com/film/?filmID=202

 

There's always the possibility that people just didn't want to watch this specific film, at least in theaters, and not necessarily that they don't want to watch Pixar films in general at the theater.

[Jonwo]

Just now, filmlover said:

I think it was announced earlier this year that all their movies will be made available on HBO Max 45 days after opening.

I wouldn't be surprised if they're a bit more flexible with Elvis. Super-Pets unless it breaks out will likely end on HBO Max after 45 days.

[Eric S'ennui]

5 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

not put their flagship movies on tv for free after seven weeks 

That's not enough IMO. I know you keep saying families prefer the big screen, but I have seen little evidence of that. If they did, they would have gone to see Lightyear. I'll argue families prefer Disney+ because it's way cheaper and way more convenient. And people like convenience.

 

The only way I could see families "preferring" theatres for Disney movies is if they came to Disney+ like a year later, which we both know will never happen. I'm sorry, but the genie is out of the bottle and we can't get it back. Even if Chapek leaves, and everything is magically better, people will still like this convenience. It's over.

[Ethan Hunt]

1 hour ago, Juan Caballo said:

85M Worldwide? Holy shit. 

 

This is... BOMB level. 

 

People put to much on the "Oh it's because of Disney Plus". While I do agree that's a factor, I think the main one is just the movie itself. Period. One of the most uninteresting Pixar movies of the last years. And screams "we want to milk this franchise so damn hard". 

 

Disney, since you are reading this right now, read closely. You need to redeem this franchise. Set Toy Story 5 for 2024 right fucking now. 

 

 

Disney if you're reading this please give The Wachowskis a blank check to make whatever they want. 

[CloneWars]

3 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

There's always the possibility that people just didn't want to watch this specific film, at least in theaters, and not necessarily that they don't want to watch Pixar films in general at the theater.

Even if true, this is an absurd drop for a TS spin-off. 

[DAJK]

3 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Holy shit, the early look at numbers for TG2 has it expectedly but hilarously blasting way in front of both JWD and LY this morning.  

Yep. Just locally, I’m preparing to open the theatre, checking presales.

 

lightyear: sure

Jurassic: whatever

Top Gun: “uhhhh... can anyone come in and work today? Can EVERYONE please come in and work today? We’re about to get steamrolled here.”

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 minute ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 

Correct. We have seen more than 10% inflation since then. More than 10% inflation since the middle of 2021, even. But prices where mostly steady with only incremental increase in the decade prior to that. Give it 1% per year from 2015 to 2021 and then 12% in the last 12 months. 

Sure, but I think you're still underplaying inflation. pre-shutdown NATO ticket prices suggest that very low rate of inflation (~1.5%) which is part inflation part ticket composition flux but having to shut down and re-open theaters made prices much less sticky even for 2021. We don't have super strong objective data, but here's my read on the data: 

A guy on box office subreddit pulled his (same theater) ticket price changes over time and thinks was ~11.25 ATP in q1 and I basically believe it. This which would imply a 22% increase from 2019. I've pulled all EntTelligence OW price datapoints and while it's risky to compare across datasets, they go from a low of 10.87 for Father Stu's OW to 11.66 for the lost ciy and between 12.60 and 13.00 for big PLF heavy blockbusters. 

https://old.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/sxfxgr/movie_theater_ticket_prices_over_10_years/
https://old.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/uajer4/estimating_the_domestic_average_ticket_price_of/ 

[Macleod]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Disney if you're reading this please give The Wachowskis a blank check to make whatever they want. 

 

The Wachowskis aren't working together anymore, and of course Lana's last movie was a flop critically and commerically...although that hasn't stopped them with Warner Bros. before, it is another new era at Warners.  I expect Lana (like Lilly) will next work on something for streaming.  

[filmlover]

It seems like 2023 is gonna be the year where we'll really get a taste for the stability of animation in movie theaters. Mario, Spider-Man, Pixar, Disney Animation titles. I don't think any of the remainder of this year's cartoons will be a good read on the marketplace (if Minions or Puss in Boots underperform a lot of people would just attribute it to good old-fashioned franchise fatigue/untimeliness while Strange World seems like one of Disney's bigger risks in a while and could go either way).

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, Macleod said:

 

The Wachowskis aren't working together anymore, and of course Lana's last movie was a flop critically and commerically...although that hasn't stopped them with Warner Bros. before, it is another new era at Warners.  I expect Lana (like Lilly) will next work on something for streaming.  

In what world was Resurrections a critical flop lmfao

[Jonwo]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It seems like 2023 is gonna be the year where we'll really get a taste for the stability of animation in movie theaters. Mario, Spider-Man, Pixar, Disney Animation titles. I don't think any of the remainder of this year's cartoons will be a good read on the marketplace (if Minions or Puss in Boots underperform a lot of people would just attribute it to good old-fashioned franchise fatigue/untimeliness while Strange World seems like one of Disney's bigger risks in a while and could go either way).

I'm curious to see how Migration does, it'll be Illumination's first original film in six and a half years (I'm not including Mario as that is IP based)

 

I don't think theatrical animation is doomed but I do wonder if we might see less lavish animated films for the foreseeable future.