THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER WEEKEND THREAD | The hammer swings down with 144.2 DOM, 302 WW, the 3rd-biggest 2022 opening | Minions 46.1, TGM 15.5, Elvis 11.2, JWD 8.6

[M37]

1 hour ago, Legion and Thunder said:

It’s great on an individual level. The problem is that with so much good content available, it’s more difficult for any one or a even handful to stand out and be a part of the conversation, become a social phenomenon. If I asked what everyone was watching on streaming, would get 20-50 different answers 

 

The most popular one would probably be Stranger Things, but because Netflix still dumps an entire series at once, people are in different places in viewing, so can’t really talk about it without fear of spoiling/being spoiled. At least D+ and HBO are smart and stick the one episode a week drop

[Joyous Legion]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

It’s great on an individual level.

I am responding to people who seem to express that it’s actively negative on an individual level. Certainly the need for content for competition is an inconvenience to producers.

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

Thor ending up around $350 million isn’t signs of MCU fatigue. It’s plainly that the movie is not very good.  

Feel I should point out 350 DOM would make this the highest grossing Thor movie domestically.

[Liiviig 1998]

6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Not always. Sometimes a franchise maxes out and doesn't grow so no matter the quality it won't ourgross previous istallment by much. LOTR was that kind. Each movie was top quality and made more but not by leaps and bounds domestically (316M, 342M, 378M). For all w eknow, L&T can get A (indicating disparity between critics and audience) and still improve on Ragnarok by about 40-50M instead of 200M. 

 

Too early to tell. I think it'll challenge 400M cause Marvel movies stabilize in later run and field is pretty barren. 

400m from fucking where ?

Best case scenario this weekend is 150m 2.5* legs gets it to around 375m and I feel I'm being generous.should be 2.35-2.4*(350-360m).

Weekend could be as low as 145m.

 

July second weekends always drop big 60%+ even for better received movies than this.

 

DS2 had good late legs but it didn't matter in the end it still has the worst multiplier for the mcu.

 

Disney + will cut it's legs in 49 days.

 

Weekend alone is heavily frontloaded which is not a good sign already.

 

Next weekend it probably drops big(62-65%) and then stabilizes onwards but don't think is sniffing anywhere near 400m.

[Joyous Legion]

4 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Feel I should point out 350 DOM would make this the highest grossing Thor movie domestically.

All hail expensive tickets

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

400m from fucking where ?

Best case scenario this weekend is 150m 2.5* legs gets it to around 375m and I feel I'm being generous.should be 2.35-2.4*(350-360m).

Weekend could be as low as 145m.

 

July second weekends always drop big 60%+ even for better received movies than this.

 

DS2 had good late legs but it didn't matter in the end it still has the worst multiplier for the mcu.

 

Disney + will cut it's legs in 49 days.

 

Weekend alone is heavily frontloaded which is not a good sign already.

 

Next weekend it probably drops big(62-65%) and then stabilizes onwards but don't think is sniffing anywhere near 400m.

 

Your analysis is certianly better than mine. It's just that I've seen very well argumented predictions for DS2 under 400M but stabilization did its part so here we are. That's something I never underestimate. But fair enough. I thought that weekend was going to be closer to DS2 which isn't the case if 150M is what we are looking at. 

[SpiderByte]

7 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

All hail expensive tickets

You really think there's been that much inflation since 2017?

[baumer]

I think those talking doom and gloom for MCU are being a little bit myopic.

 

I don't have the numbers in front of me right now and I don't have a way of looking them up but look at what the MCU has to do. Infinity wars and end game basically eviscerated the box office. The opening weekends were staggering, the grosses were astronomical and if it wasn't for a re-release of Avatar, end game would be the biggest movie worldwide.

 

I can't speak for what's streaming on Disney because frankly I haven't watched any of them except for Wanda Vision which I thought was kind of pedestrian. But look at Doctor strange part 2. Again I don't have the numbers in front of me but the first one made something like $600 million dollars. The second one is going to do close to a billion if not a little bit more. That's a healthy gross and a healthy increase. I didn't like the movie all that much but most people seem to be in favor of it.

 

If I recall correctly Thor Ragnarok made something like 800 million. Again I don't have the numbers in front of me I'm going off of memory here LOL so be kind. Now this one is going to open to around 140 million and will probably gross North of 320 at least. Worldwide I'm not sure maybe it does exactly what Ragnarok did.

 

And then of course there was Shang Chi which got released during the pandemic and did incredibly well and then you have Spider-Man in the multiverse which had an amazing gross.

 

I say the MCU is fine and dandy. Obviously nothing is ever going to come close to what end game did but there's still a massive amount of interest in the films they put out. Nothing else really comes close. Top Gun is lightning in a bottle and thank God for that but if you put out a third part to Top Gun I doubt it comes close to making $600 million.

 

The point I'm making is that I don't know what kind of expectations you guys are having for some of these movies but the opening weekends are massive which means tons of people still have an interest in it and I'm sure they will continue to have interest. Ant-Man will probably do very well and black panther is probably going to do very well. The MCU to me seems like it's doing just fine.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

You really think there's been that much inflation since 2017?

 

Not for movie tickets but inflation in general has definitely gone up. But yes keeping it to a box office perspective no I don't think tickets have increased that much in 5 years.

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

You really think there's been that much inflation since 2017?

uhh yeah? Well, it's certainly more than 2012-2017.

Dunno about ticket price inflation specifically though. Box office mojo used to make that easier to see.

[ThePhasmid]

B+ Cinemascore? Marvel's approval rating with general audiences is not fairing too well lately. It's obviously still better than average, but it's dipping in comparison to previous standards. I loved Ragnarok, but it appears Taika has leaned too heavy into the silly here.

Edited July 9, 2022 by ThePhasmid

[M37]

2 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

You really think there's been that much inflation since 2017?

For movie tickets on OW? Yes, both in the base pricing (up like 15%), and with audiences skewing more towards PLF screens and major markets, further increasing ATP

[cannastop]

I do know that tickets at my go-to theater got like 30% more expensive in the past few years, at least.

[baumer]

Just now, cannastop said:

I do know that tickets at my go-to theater got like 30% more expensive in the past few years, at least.

 

And on the flip side, here in toronto, the price of our tickets have gone up a $1.50 in the last few years. Not saying that's not a significant but our tickets were already like $13 before.

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

You really think there's been that much inflation since 2017?

Do you, uhh… look at data? 
 

Anyway, yes. Yes there has been.
 

 

[wildphantom]

24 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Feel I should point out 350 DOM would make this the highest grossing Thor movie domestically.

that’s fair. Although Ragnarok changing up his depiction on screen to huge acclaim, plus his star turns in the avengers infinity/endgame colossus turned L&T into a $500 million potential, especially in summer. It’s falling under that potential because the film isn’t as good as it should have been.  They’ve kind of blown that step up they’d made in the character’s popularity on screen, but $350 million will still be very good of course. 
 

Dominion and L&T should have been near half a billion grossers each, but ultimately the films couldn’t live up to the set up they were both afforded. 

Edited July 9, 2022 by wildphantom

[wildphantom]

45 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Wait this had 250m budget!!. Where did all that money go . Some of the cgi looked terrible.

The meet up with Russell looked atrocious. It was like they were acting with a Soul Calibur background. 

[Joyous Legion]

There has been 18.5% CPI inflation from nov 2017 to may 2022. 2017 atp was 8.97, 2021 full year was 10.17, so 13.4% — very close to CPI 13.1% from dec 2017 to dec 2021. So 2022 ATP will probably be about 7% higher, 10.88, for ~21%.    
 

Call it an even 20% for 2017-2022 and it’s a similar amount of CPI inflation as  2007-2017 or atp inflation as 2009-2017 — taking rag to about 370-380M

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, John Marston said:

Don’t really get the appeal of TV.  Potentially a hundred or so episodes for a story that could like be told in a 2 hour movie? And where do people get the time to watch all these shows?

 

The Boys is an example of perfect tv.  1 hour episodes, so it's doable late at night.  Perfect pacing.  A well-told, and yet involved plot with a start and finish (and a cliffhanger to kick off the next season as the "epilogue").  Great acting.  And only 8 hours of my involvement this summer.  I waited a few weeks to let it build up, and finished the last 2 episodes last night, after starting this about 2 weeks ago.

 

That show is why we have streaming.  It can't work in a theater.  But it is ideal tv.

 

Having watched D+ shows, the 6 episode thing does NOT work for new characters, especially if they aren't even 1 hour episodes.  The best streaming shows have been 8-10 episodes, telling 1 complete story and having some side fun and compelling characters.

[baumer]

As I mentioned yesterday, Rogers communications had a complete shutdown yesterday in canada. Most of the debits and credit machines in the country are run by the Rogers network. I'm not saying there's going to be a massive uptick in movies today, but it wouldn't surprise me if yesterday's outage here in Canada did affect the box office. People did not have access to their debit or credit cards and in a lot of cases the ATMs were also down. So it's possible maybe films see a slightly higher  increase today. So instead of Minions going up something like 38% maybe it goes up 40%. Just something to be aware of if the numbers look like they have a little bit more of an increase today than what we are expecting.