Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — International Box Office Thread

[XXR vs XXR]

I figured it was time to go ahead and get this ready now that we have the trailer. For reference, Black Panther made $647,171,407 OS and $542,108,948 OS-C. If we want to take it a step further due to current world events, it also made $522,843,416 OS-C-R/CIS. 

[The Dark Alfred]

Early prediction is it beats DS2 handily, but late legs will be cut short. 650-670m.

[Liiviig 1998]

2 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Early prediction is it beats DS2 handily, but late legs will be cut short. 650-670m.

You expect this to beat BP international total without china and russia!!

 

450-600m.

[JustLurking]

I don't think this even sniffs 600M, ERs are terrible and not going to get any better by the time this releases, also many european markets will be suffering heavily this winter when the gas problems hit. -100M from lack of china is already a given. 450-500M with good reception imho.

Edited July 26, 2022 by JustLurking

[Sophia Jane]

around 450－500m .DOM could be 600－700m,full run break 1B 

[exomassey]

So we’re thinking this won’t get a China release?

[p a p i]

1 minute ago, exomassey said:

So we’re thinking this won’t get a China release?

100% it won't. China and MCU is a duo of the past. 

[MG10]

3 hours ago, exomassey said:

So we’re thinking this won’t get a China release?

 

Honestly I don't see why it should, more than anything else it will be interesting to see if in 2025 there will be complaints and protests for the non-release of the two Avengers movies...

[MG10]

Anyway, the very good teaser makes me think of slightly raising my forecast, if the film is good enough it could reach the billion with 550M in Usa/Canada and 450M in rest of the world, unlike Doctor Strange which had quite ruthless reviews that prevented it from doing so (but I agree that the director could have done some things better)

[Valonqar]

7 hours ago, JustLurking said:

I don't think this even sniffs 600M, ERs are terrible and not going to get any better by the time this releases, also many european markets will be suffering heavily this winter when the gas problems hit. -100M from lack of china is already a given. 450-500M with good reception imho.

 

4 hours ago, Bruce said:

around 450－500m .

 

Yep. It's easy to forget that BP is only an American phenomenon but just another Marvel franchise outside of US. There's no reason why it would increase OS especially with bad ER.

Edited July 26, 2022 by Valonqar

[XXR vs XXR]

My target is $500M OS-C-R.

[John Marston]

Definitely not as much as the first. The question is can it reach 500m. Possible I’d say since BP1 was more popular than Thor Ragnarok and even Spiderman Homecoming  overseas 

Edited July 26, 2022 by John Marston

[Valonqar]

BP had the advantage of featuring heavily in IW trailers. So part of the audience went to see it because it was advertised as important to understand IW. WF does not have that advantage and I think that a lot of people overestimate Chadwick Boseman factor. He's unknown OS outside of BP so T'Challa tribute won't be that big of a deal. 

 

 

Edited July 26, 2022 by Valonqar

[The Dark Alfred]

12 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

You expect this to beat BP international total without china and russia!!

 

450-600m.

 

Stand corrected, forgot that the China ship has completely sailed. Should do 550m if the film is good, if it's getting the same mixed reception as DS2 and LT then it's gonna finish somewhere inbetween the two, 457m. 

[Issac Newton]

Japan Box Office

 

Black Panther [4-days Opening Week]

 

Locations / Screen Count - 356 / 631 [OW Only]

 

OP : ¥309,716,400 / 199,124 attendees

OW: ¥503,325,600 / 343,150 attendees 

 

Final Box Office - ¥1.56B / $14.65M* (3.1x OW / 5.0x OP)

 

No OD Numbers / Thursday was Opening Day.

 

I am not hyping up with Trailer as it gonna clash with Shinkai's "Suzume's Locking-Up", another ¥10B+ potential, after TOHO's "Jujutsu Kaisen Movie 0" (¥13.76B) &Paramount's "Top Gun: Maverick" (~¥11-12B)

 

Considering the clash + MCU 50% WKend Decline. I guess ¥2.0B / $14.59M will be the best results for Marvel's "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", that's a decline of 0.44% in USD..!

 

*USD value per BOM

Edited July 27, 2022 by Issac Newton

[The Dark Alfred]

Its OS legs will be cut very short when Avatar opens that's for sure.

[Ryan Reynolds]

World Cup hurt OS?

[Issac Newton]

On 7/26/2022 at 7:03 PM, exomassey said:

So we’re thinking this won’t get a China release?

Politically, China relation with Africa Continent is at Mach 10 level. And we all know what T Challa meant for Africa.

 

So, it's a done deal to get release in China unless we have some LGBTQ issues.

[Doffy]

Dom:600m to 800m

Os:600m to 800m

Ww:1.2b to 1.6b without china.

 

 

[MG10]

6 hours ago, Doffy said:

Dom:600m to 800m

Os:600m to 800m

Ww:1.2b to 1.6b without china.

 

 

 

Bro wts is that, my forecast of 600M in Usa and 500M overseas was already really optimistic but this...