Labor Day/National Cinema Day Weekend Thread | TGM crosses 700M! Fifth-biggest movie DOM! The Cruise Missile never stops

[M37]

51 minutes ago, Xavier said:

it's embarrassing that he was opposed by supposedly experienced box office trackers

What was opposed was the not the potential of $700M, but the absolute certainty implied. Because “experienced box office trackers” know there is uncertainty, in that we are literally trying to predict the future of collective human behavior

 

In weeks 3-5, TGM declined week to week 42.8% (lost PLF), 12.4% and then 31.4% - good holding power generally. But over the next 8 weeks, it only declined more than 18.5% weekly one time (vs Thor) - to say that kind of run was inevitable and “locked” really takes a level of hubris. An extremely modest 3% higher weekly drop rate would have the current total (including LD estimate) at ~$681M, which still probably would have been enough to BP-esque crawl to $700M. And that total includes a PLF re-release, Cinema Day bump, and Paramount continuing to hold off free streaming release - all of which were unknowns back in June/July

 

IMO, the more absolutist someone is about even higher probability (70-90%+) outcomes, the more wary you should be, because they aren’t giving you (or don’t understand) the uncertainty 

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I'm kinda curious to see how close Brahmastra could get to a number 1 opening this weekend. What do you think @grim22 @charlie Jatinder? 

I was certain its gonna bomb but it has surprised me. Even in USA, THU has solid pre-sales. Can open $3-4M.

[Coldbird]

20 minutes ago, M37 said:

What was opposed was the not the potential of $700M, but the absolute certainty implied. Because “experienced box office trackers” know there is uncertainty, in that we are literally trying to predict the future of collective human behavior

 

LMAO since when, this forum is throwing words like "locked" around at every opportunity and people are definitely not keeping an inherent "uncertainty" in mind then discussing future performances. Just visit discussion like Endgame vs Avatar for an example.

[Jiffy]

Eh let EC take his victory lap lol. TGM has certainly been the most fun BO run to follow since Avatar (give or take TFA's first 17 days), and probably 3rd most fun since Titanic (after MBFGW as well).

[M37]

1 hour ago, Coldbird said:

LMAO since when, this forum is throwing words like "locked" around at every opportunity and people are definitely not keeping an inherent "uncertainty" in mind then discussing future performances. Just visit discussion like Endgame vs Avatar for an example.

Then it should be easy to identify the people to whom you should pay less heed

 

Forgot I had created this a while back, showing TGM's potential path to $700M with a presumed -20% weekly drop rate following Thor opening (no LD or other bumps/factors included). Can see how it really jumped ahead of that pace in August as the calendar dried up, after being just $4M ahead through 8/11, then got PLFs back, then LD + CD, and is +$15M now (+$11M through last 4 weeks), with current 4-day estimates and still 3 days to go in this week to pull further ahead

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by M37

[Eric the Ape]

 

[Borobudur]

When will DC superpets come on HBO max? I understand that the movie is already on PVOD but will WB stick to 45 days on HBO Max strategy? 

[Eric the Ape]

 

[Felandria]

33 minutes ago, Eric the Shark said:

 

That’s a nice $400k jump from the Monday estimate for SuperPets

[CJohn]

45 minutes ago, Eric the Shark said:

 

Pets is gonna die right next to The Bad Guys.

[The Dark Alfred]

What a fantastic LD weekend for TGM, you couldn't written it better, being on top on its 15th weekend and hitting 700m. Fun ride and glad that the Cruise missile silenced all the doubters.

 

TITANIC still ahead of the field, if we discard the limited release openers, TGM is #2. 

 

Biggest domestic 15th weekend:

 

1	Mar 27, 1998	Titanic	$15,213,500	3,233	$4,706	$515,262,530
2	Feb 20, 2009	Slumdog Millionaire	$8,384,680	2,244	$3,736	$98,354,395
3	Sep 2, 1977	Star Wars Ep. IV: A New Hope	$7,737,847	915	$8,457	$133,727,463
4	Jan 28, 2005	Sideways	$6,347,364	1,694	$3,747	$40,054,672
5	Mar 4, 2011	The King’s Speech	$6,230,227	2,240	$2,781	$123,546,104
6	Feb 15, 1991	Dances with Wolves	$6,202,141	1,554	$3,991	$111,742,261
7	Sep 2, 2022	Top Gun: Maverick	$6,014,128	3,113	$1,932	$699,343,872

[Eric the Ape]

 

[The Dark Alfred]

Another terrific Monday for TGM landing on the magnificent 700m mothership. Party time!!! It is also good for the best 15th Monday in history by a huge margin!!

TITANIC relegated to second position. 

CROCODILE DUNDEE figures are only estimates, the Aussie bushman was good for the podium. New on the list is BEVERLY HILL COPS, also estimated gross based on its weighted weekly figures.

BACK TO THE FUTURE also pops up having a nice Monday hold on Indigenous Peoples' Day.

E.T. slides to fifth and TOP GUN first appears on the list gearing up into its LD weekend, where for the first time will be ahead of TGM.

AVATAR is down 8th, but still ahead of every 21st century blockbuster apart from MAVERICK.

 

Biggest domestic 15th Monday:

1. Top Gun: Maverick               $1,906,497    3,113   $612     $701,250,369    Sep 5

2. Titanic                                     $778,315    3,233   $240     $516,040,845    Mar 30

3. Crocodile Dundee                   $405,120    1,375   $294     $122,920,198    Jan 5

4. Beverly Hills Cop                     $370,000    1,470   $252     $186,877,348    Mar 18  

5. E. T.                                          $325,771    1,301   $250     $250,926,752    Sep 20

6. Back To The Future                  $308,619    1,242   $248     $163,607,921    Oct 14

7. Top Gun                                   $252,000    1,201   $210     $126,570,911    Aug 25

8. Avatar                                      $243,746       930   $262     $740,684,275    Mar 29

Edited September 6, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[Maggie]

TGM- incredible run. The movie was stunning, it totally deserves these incredible numbers.

 

Now, the question. Where will it finish the year? Can Black Panther 2 beat it? I think Avatar 2 will make 800M, not sure about Panther 2 - the trailer looks very emotional and it could strike a chord with the moviegoers

[XXR vs XXR]

27 minutes ago, Maggie said:

TGM- incredible run. The movie was stunning, it totally deserves these incredible numbers.

 

Now, the question. Where will it finish the year? Can Black Panther 2 beat it? I think Avatar 2 will make 800M, not sure about Panther 2 - the trailer looks very emotional and it could strike a chord with the moviegoers

 

Top 5 Prediction

A2 - $770M 
TGM - $725M

WF - $610M

MOM - $411M

Bat - $377M

[Eric the Ape]

 

[The Dark Alfred]

TGM will win the year domestically. People are overpredicting AVATAR 2.

 

 WF could do well, but it's not going to beat the first one and TGM already passed BP.

Edited September 6, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[Merkel]

Will Minions outgross The Batman domestically?

[XXR vs XXR]

15 minutes ago, Merkel said:

Will Minions outgross The Batman domestically?

 

Nah, it shouldn't. Would need to go more than 5x a holiday/discount boosted 3 day weekend to achieve it. It'll probably top out right around $370M. 

[XXR vs XXR]

31 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

TGM will win the year domestically. People are overpredicting AVATAR 2.

 

 WF could do well, but it's not going to beat the first one and TGM already passed BP.

 

 

Perhaps, but the market conditions favor a massive run. All that remains is WOM.