Labor Day/National Cinema Day Weekend Thread | TGM crosses 700M! Fifth-biggest movie DOM! The Cruise Missile never stops

[XXR vs XXR]

39 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

 

 

 

1) I don't think anyone laughed. Pretty sure people just took umbrage with his use of "locked". 

2) Who cares? 

[filmlover]

The Woman King is being marketed very aggressively. Lots and lots of ads for it on TV. If it gets good reviews I can see it hitting a $20M opening.

[DC Rich]

18 minutes ago, The More Fun XXR said:

 

1) I don't think anyone laughed. Pretty sure people just took umbrage with his use of "locked". 

2) Who cares? 

 

Plus,

 

1) There were several others on here that said it was going over 700m.  They just didn't use the word lock.  But they were pretty adamant it was going over. 

 

2) In one of his posts, he was even using an Oscar re-release to justify why it was getting there.  He wasn't calling for it on Labor Day. Hell, Avatar will hit 800m if they keep do re-releases. 

 

3) We all have our hits, and we all have our misses on our "locks".  It's the box office.

[stripe]

4 hours ago, DC Rich said:

 

Plus,

 

1) There were several others on here that said it was going over 700m.  They just didn't use the word lock.  But they were pretty adamant it was going over. 

 

2) In one of his posts, he was even using an Oscar re-release to justify why it was getting there.  He wasn't calling for it on Labor Day. Hell, Avatar will hit 800m if they keep do re-releases. 

 

3) We all have our hits, and we all have our misses on our "locks".  It's the box office.

 

Exactly

 

After second weekend, some here (me included) talked about 700M being a real possibility. Anyways, then that goal was really far from locked.

 

Only a sith deals in absolutes

[stripe]

10 hours ago, CJohn said:

And now we sleep until The Woman King because this coming weekend might have no movies above 4M (and certainly nothing over 5M).

 

Barbarian under 5M? Can't see this happening!

[M37]

14 hours ago, grim22 said:

It's still somewhat crazy to me that Hollywood pretty much decided that releasing big movies after mid-July till mid-October was not something they wanted to do.

Since at least 2000 (I stopped checking, excluding pandemic years obv), September and October have been in the bottom 3 in total box office gross every single year. Now you can get into the chicken vs egg debate by pointing out the generally weaker releases, but the entire leisure/entertainment industry generally slumps during these months. Has more to do with social effects, as we collectively revert back to the Mon-Fri routine as schools start back up, many having spent more liberally over the summer and so tightening wallet, coinciding with the start of new TV seasons (streaming has changed this a bit), plus the impact of the most popular sport in football (at all levels) keeping people occupied even during free time on weekends. People are just going out and spending less in September, reducing the potential.

 

In a year with fewer releases and grosses not expected to be fully recovered (if it ever does), not surprised studios collectively avoided this time period with higher potential films

[TwoMisfits]

14 hours ago, CJohn said:

We are definitly on track for a bunch of 5M and lower bomb openers just like last Fall if marketing and reviews don't combine for a strong enough combo to draw audiences. The Woman King, Bros, White Bird, Barbarian, Pearl, DWD, Prey for the Devil, Amsterdam, Ticket to Paradise. It is gonna be a rough Fall for theaters. The one I see breaking out from the September lineup if it has good reviews is Smile.

 

I think Amsterdam is gonna be the breakout.  Ignore the director (thank God he's not on screen), but that looks like a very GA friendly movie...and it's got the 3 day holiday weekend.  I want to say I can see a $20M weekend for it (especially if it's actually good) right now.

 

And Lyle Lyle won't be much competition for it...

 

PS - Although I agree on Smile - for September, if it's good, I agree that's this month's breakout.  Horror in the fall tends to be...

Edited September 6, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[CJohn]

My problem with Amsterdam is that reviews are gonna be bad. Reviews are key for people to go out and check a movie. If those are bad, the movie is basically dead.

 

This is the same that is already affecting Dont Worry Darling. That movie wont even open with 10M now.

[Xavier]

11 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

 

 

 

 

Very true. He was the first one who said it and stood by it when many doubted it. And there was just one that so vehemently and stubbornly denied the "LOCKED" factor, which was kind of silly on his/her behalf. The movie had amazing momentum and, in retrospect (barren release landscape, weak releases), it's embarrassing that he was opposed by supposedly experienced box office trackers.

Also, on the "Who cares" question, the answer is that after EC was evicted, these threads are close to dead, without the spark of early predictions. I didn't always agree with the guy but come on, it's a box office tracking thread, if someone's being an ass, on a reasonable scale at least, we should maaaaybe be a little more thick skinned.

 

[SchumacherFTW]

7 minutes ago, Xavier said:

 

Very true. He was the first one who said it and stood by it when many doubted it. And there was just one that so vehemently and stubbornly denied the "LOCKED" factor, which was kind of silly on his/her behalf. The movie had amazing momentum and, in retrospect (barren release landscape, weak releases), it's embarrassing that he was opposed by supposedly experienced box office trackers.

Also, on the "Who cares" question, the answer is that after EC was evicted, these threads are close to dead, without the spark of early predictions. I didn't always agree with the guy but come on, it's a box office tracking thread, if someone's being an ass, on a reasonable scale at least, we should maaaaybe be a little more thick skinned.

 

The box office being dead is the reason it's quiet here, this has happened during near enough every quiet season since this forum opened. 

[Legion Again]

It obviously was not locked and anyone saying that it was both looked and still looks incredibly foolish.

[M37]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

I think Amsterdam is gonna be the breakout.  Ignore the director (thank God he's not on screen), but that looks like a very GA friendly movie...and it's got the 3 day holiday weekend.  I want to say I can see a $20M weekend for it (especially if it's actually good) right now.

While I agree there is potential there, I’m not sure the tone (at least from the preview) is quite that GA friendly, in that it looks to take itself a bit more seriously
 

Less “this will be entertaining and hopefully good” like recent GA hits Bullet Train, Lost City, Free Guy, etc and leaning more towards “this is a good story that is also entertaining”, which probably makes it more dependent on positive reviews/WOM, clearing that bar. Something along the lines of say Baby Driver (? - I’m struggling for comps), which of course jumped well over it

 

 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

Why does forum still remember EC? This forum isn't where we study electricity ( EC = Electric Current )

[SchumacherFTW]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

Why does forum still remember EC? This forum isn't where we study electricity ( EC = Electric Current )

I believe most of us here study electricity in the form of AC/DC 👀

[JustLurking]

59 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

The box office being dead is the reason it's quiet here, this has happened during near enough every quiet season since this forum opened. 

Nah, the thread would be brimming with curiosity for the...nwh re-release...and the invitation...with early numbers. I'm sure.

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, stripe said:

 

Barbarian under 5M? Can't see this happening!

It's being released with a low theater count (despite the box office being wasteland) and minimal advertising so it's not that wild. Another 20th Century/Searchlight dump courtesy of Disney (next week's See How They Run is also opening without any fanfare).

[Flopped]

6 hours ago, stripe said:

 

Barbarian under 5M? Can't see this happening!

 

I hope it does better than 5M but what makes you think it actually will? 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, Xavier said:

 

Very true. He was the first one who said it and stood by it when many doubted it. And there was just one that so vehemently and stubbornly denied the "LOCKED" factor, which was kind of silly on his/her behalf. The movie had amazing momentum and, in retrospect (barren release landscape, weak releases), it's embarrassing that he was opposed by supposedly experienced box office trackers.

Also, on the "Who cares" question, the answer is that after EC was evicted, these threads are close to dead, without the spark of early predictions. I didn't always agree with the guy but come on, it's a box office tracking thread, if someone's being an ass, on a reasonable scale at least, we should maaaaybe be a little more thick skinned.

 

 

1) Yes, there was really only one person who took him to task over the "LOCKED" verbiage and yet he still talks about it like the whole website was against TGM hitting $700M. 

 

2) The forum isn't dead. The box office has just been poor as is fairly normal this time of year. We've only had one $30M opener in the last 7 weekends (by comparison, we had 4 over $100M in the preceding 9). 

 

3) If anyone needs to get more thick skinned, it's him. He's a huge asshole to anyone who disagrees with him or has a differing opinion and when he finally gets punished for repeated offenses, he goes on a Twitter rampage like a hormonal teenager. The only time he gets talked about on here is when he mentions us first, which is more often than not because without this place he has nothing going for him. 

Edited September 6, 2022 by The More Fun XXR

[SchumacherFTW]

I'm kinda curious to see how close Brahmastra could get to a number 1 opening this weekend. What do you think @grim22 @charlie Jatinder? 

Edited September 6, 2022 by SchumacherFTW

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I'm kinda curious to see how close Brahmastra could get to a number 1 opening this weekend. What do you think @grim22 @charlie Jatinder? 

It's possible. There's nothing else of note out and I think it will have Thursday opening rolled into the weekend as well.

 

So even if it gets to like 6M over the 4 days it should be #1.

 

The tension in Bollywood is palpable for sure. This is it, it's THE big bet and if it flops or doesn't do well, then Bollywood will be well and truly lost on what works with audiences anymore.