Weekend Thread | Estimates: Barbarian 10M, Brahmastra 4.4, Bullet Train 3.25, TGM 3.2, Pets 2.8

[Issac Newton]

UNFAVORABLE ODDS - $58K (441 locs)

BREAKING - $225K / $2.6M

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

45 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Deadline says Barbarian hit 10M

 

https://deadline.com/2022/09/box-office-barbarian-brahmastra-part-one-shiva-1235114007/

 

They also say Woman King is tracking for 13-16M while Don't Worry Darling is nearing 20M in tracking.

I think both could beat tracking.

 

Woman King has a strong Rotten Tomatoes meter and is a big war/action epic with female appeal.

 

Don't Worry Darling has bad reviews but a lot of buzz, genre high concept, stars, and again more female appeal.

[Eric the Ape]

 

[Issac Newton]

#WEEKEND

 

Bullet Train - $3.25M / $92.54M

Top Gun - $3.17M / $705.65M

Super-Pets - $2.83M / $85.42M

Invitation - $2.62M / $18.85M

No Way Home - $1.30M / $813.35M

Crawdads - $1.20M / $87.89M

Mediaeval - $810K 

Elvis - $500K / $150.29M

Honk - $365K / $2.40M

Orphan - $300K / $5.08M

[Legion Again]

Pets doing over 21x Wed is full insano mode.   
 

Maybe weekdays were depressed by cinema day burning demand, or something?

[Issac Newton]

1 hour ago, Grebacio said:

 

$55M away from Avatar! 

[XXR vs XXR]

TGM probably has another $12-16M in the tank domestically. 

[Issac Newton]

Brahmastra Part One: Shiva debuted with an estimated $4.40M this weekend (from 810 locations).#Brahmastra #BoxOffice @starstudios_ @BrahmastraFilm

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) September 11, 2022

[Issac Newton]

Barbarian debuted with an estimated $10.0M this weekend (from 2,340 locations).#Barbarian #BoxOffice @20thcentury @20thHorror

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) September 11, 2022

[Eric the Ape]

5 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Pets doing over 21x Wed is full insano mode.   
 

Maybe weekdays were depressed by cinema day burning demand, or something?

Is this out of the norm for when kids movies are now in the school season? Because that sounds right. This isn't me trying to say you're wrong, I'm legit curious.

[Issac Newton]

Thor: Love and Thunder grossed an estimated $1.00M this weekend (from 1,850 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $342.27M.#ThorLoveAndThunder #Thor #BoxOffice @MarvelStudios @thorofficial

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) September 11, 2022

[Issac Newton]

5 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Brahmastra Part One: Shiva debuted with an estimated $4.40M this weekend (from 810 locations).#Brahmastra #BoxOffice @starstudios_ @BrahmastraFilm

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) September 11, 2022

$1.3M IMAX (29.5% Share)

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Eric-occhio said:

Is this out of the norm for when kids movies are now in the school season? Because that sounds right. This isn't me trying to say you're wrong, I'm legit curious.

 

While kids movies have higher multipliers relative to weekdays outside of summer, that level of multiplier is definitely out of the norm. For comparison, the Paw Patrol movie from last year did 10.2x Wednesday during the same weekend. 

[M37]

24 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Pets doing over 21x Wed is full insano mode.   
 

Maybe weekdays were depressed by cinema day burning demand, or something?

Well, it won’t get quite that high, unless WB knows something about Sunday (-20% ???) that we don’t 

 

I do wonder if the digital release shaves off more from the weekday audience than weekend, throwing off the ratio (edit) in that parents of non-school age kids can just watch at home rather than going to the theater, while the weekend crowd is more inclined to want to go do something 

Edited September 11, 2022 by M37

[DAJK]

I wouldn't be surprised if we're all underestimating Don't Worry Darling. I remember when I first started making tik toks (over a year and a half ago at this point), a weirdly high number of comments on my page were about "hopefully movie theatres are open by the time DWD comes out!"

 

This definitely has big teen/young adult appeal. Bad reviews won't matter much on opening weekend (heck, it has a higher RT score than Dominion), and the recent drama has only brought it closer to the public's attention. 

 

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that unless WOM is just toxic, it's going to have a 25/65 type run.

Edited September 11, 2022 by DAJK

[M37]

27 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I think both could beat tracking.

 

Woman King has a strong Rotten Tomatoes meter and is a big war/action epic with female appeal.

 

Don't Worry Darling has bad reviews but a lot of buzz, genre high concept, stars, and again more female appeal.

But will those audiences rush out for OW? 

 

I can see Woman King hitting weekends similar to Crawdads, but without the summer/holiday bumps, say a $15M OW but still finishing in $50-$60M range (3x the opening week) if not higher 

[WayneBorg]

[Valonqar]

41 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I think both could beat tracking.

 

Woman King has a strong Rotten Tomatoes meter and is a big war/action epic with female appeal.

 

Don't Worry Darling has bad reviews but a lot of buzz, genre high concept, stars, and again more female appeal.

 

Agreed. WK targets very underserved audience and they tend to come out in full force when something for them finally comes along.  DWD has buzz where the off screen drama is driving curiosity. It's a dead month so whatever looks like a worthy trip to cinema will beat tracking.

[filmlover]

Could Elvis actually finish in the top 10 for 2022? Black Panther and Avatar are the only remaining releases that are 100% locked to finish with a higher total than the $152-153M it's looking to stop at.

[Issac Newton]

Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero grossed an estimated $900K this weekend. Estimated total domestic gross stands at $36.55M.#DragonBallSuperSuperHero #BoxOffice

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) September 11, 2022