Weekend Thread (11/4-6) | Weekend Actuals: Black Adam 18.3, One Piece 9.5, Ticket 8.5, Smile 4, Devil 3.9

[Johnny Tran]

BA's not a flop.  nobody had ever heard of the character before a year or two ago.  how many characters do between $350M-$400M+ WW that nobody ever heard of post-covid? it's gonna do Eternals numbers. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

WB should drop the Oceans prequel and get George and Julia back

[Joyous Legion]

12 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

nobody had ever heard of the character before a year or two ago.

This has exactly jackshit to do with whether something is a flop, lol

 

Eternals, sadly, was also in the flop zone, with circa 200M theatrical rev on a est 200M prod budget. 

[ringedmortality]

48 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 how many characters do between $350M-$400M+ WW that nobody ever heard of post-covid? 

Shang-Chi

Edited November 6, 2022 by ringedmortality

[VENOM]

1 hour ago, Johnny Tran said:

BA's not a flop.  nobody had ever heard of the character before a year or two ago.  how many characters do between $350M-$400M+ WW that nobody ever heard of post-covid? it's gonna do Eternals numbers. 

You were careful with your wording there but if it was your 200M you wouldn’t be happy lol

Edited November 6, 2022 by VENOM

[JustLurking]

BA's numbers are decent in a vacuum but they don't fly when you look at what the budget was.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

BA's numbers are decent in a vacuum but they don't fly when you look at what the budget was.

Same with Shang-Chi. 
 

Black Adam is making more than I thought it would. 

[charlie Jatinder]

8.25

3.6

OPR 2.8

[TwoMisfits]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

8.25

3.6

OPR 2.8

 

So about $18-$18.5M for Black Adam...that's about a 33% drop for it.  Great 3rd weekend hold, which some poster was smart enough to let everyone know would happen last weekend.  

 

Oh, M37, just take your bow - I always believed in you:)!

[JustLurking]

Dang, OPR probably misses 10 then unless it comes in higher. Still a good and above expectations opening.

Edited November 6, 2022 by JustLurking

[VENOM]

That’s the smell of a good hold

[Joyous Legion]

Fri not inflated at all then — last weekend deflation more dramatic than I realized. Props to M37 indeed.

[Krissykins]

28 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Dang, OPR probably misses 10 then unless it comes in higher. Still a good and above expectations opening.

I don’t know if sub $10m was above expectations to be honest. I seen a lot of $10-14m. 

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I don’t know if sub $10m was above expectations to be honest. I seen a lot of $10-14m. 

A lot of these were based on BOP's prediction but I think BOP just based their range looking at the last few crunchy wide or kinda wide releases. OP isn't huge in the US so these are pretty good numbers imo. Always thought people were way too high on it whenever that was mentioned.

[Joyous Legion]

FWIW BOP ended up forecasting 9.5 which looks right on the money.   
 

BOR has 11.3 and derby avg was 10.9, so I would say it’s a smidge below expectation. Expectations were to have a great OW for the franchise though, and that is basically still happening.

[cax16]

8 hours ago, Johnny Tran said:

BA's not a flop.  nobody had ever heard of the character before a year or two ago.  how many characters do between $350M-$400M+ WW that nobody ever heard of post-covid? it's gonna do Eternals numbers. 

I actually agree in terms of the character. I’ve said for a long time in the black adam thread I thought BA would do around Shazam numbers cause it’s an unknown character so nothing more should be expected. The problem is what they ended up spending on the movie, so moving forward they need to be smarter about that.
 

Some people are obviously being snarky which always happens, others are just telling it like it is, the budget is what’s hurting the movie’s success, and that’s the truth. I don’t think too much changes going forward now honestly, Gunn is in charge and he had obvious input on Black Adam so he knew where this storey was going. Just make a better sequel. 

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

Yeah ftr it’s doing better than I expected and quite decently for a first movie about Black Adam.   

 

 

But that’s separate from in the black vs in the red accounting kind of arguments.

[Joyous Legion]

WEEKEND ESTIMATE, hot off the presses:

Spoiler

-

(-)

Cat Daddies

$3,406

-60%

2

-2

$44,999

4

 

Edited November 6, 2022 by Legion By Night

[VENOM]

After Sony won biggest movie last year there’s a real chance Paramount might win this year. I think we can safely say Black Panther won’t beat Top Gun Maverick.. Disney’s only hope is a Fox movie.

[M37]

1 hour ago, Legion By Night said:

Fri not inflated at all then — last weekend deflation more dramatic than I realized. Props to M37 indeed.

To be fair, the deflation and rebound effect was even more dramatic than I had expected (as evidenced by my Derby estimates), likely due to the absence of a tentpole opening and limited non-horror/GA friendly product available

 

But yeah, that first November weekend is like a spell being broken and audiences rediscovering movies exist