Weekend Thread (11/4-6) | Weekend Actuals: Black Adam 18.3, One Piece 9.5, Ticket 8.5, Smile 4, Devil 3.9

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

Lyle’s Saturday ($1.61M) only down 13% from 2 weeks ago 

 

Can only imagine how many parents were like “fine, we’ll watch it”

And yet, I still don’t have high hopes for Strange World …

I mean, its overall total isn't that great to begin with, especially considering it was the only family movie over the course of four months and reviews were decent. It's gonna make less than Clifford did last year despite no simultaneous streaming release and nonexistent competition.

[XXR & Friends]

I'm surprised by pretty much every hold this week. Next week will be fun  

 

[efialtes76]

BA-$18.5M(-33%)

[CJohn]

Why in God's name didn't WB open Black Adam on the first weekend of October?

 

Premium screens for 2 weeks isn't an excuse. It would have them back on week 3 after losing them on week 2 to Halloween.

Edited November 6, 2022 by CJohn

[M37]

Just now, filmlover said:

I mean, its overall total isn't that great to begin with, especially considering it was the only family movie over the course of four months and reviews were decent. It's gonna make less than Clifford did last year despite no simultaneous streaming release and nonexistent competition.

Clifford - a much bigger brand - benefited hugely from being a November/pre-Thanksgiving release (only made ~$6M after TG Sunday/day 19) while Lyle came out in what is typically the worst period for grossing potential (post-Labor Day through Halloween) of the year

 

The more apt comp IMO is Ron's Gone Wrong, which last year netted just $23M of a $7.3M OW (barely over 3x). Lyle is already at 3.2x, also made $7.3M in second weekend (same calendar week as Ron's first), and has grossed $21.5M after the first full week ahead of Ron's $17.5M at this same point. But RGW was also a Fox/Disney dump, so they probably left some potential gross on the table by generally not really caring

 

I'm just mostly amused at Lyle because of how awful I think it looks, and imaging the parents desperate for some family outing having to sit through it

[Nikostar]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Why in God's name didn't WB open Black Adam on the first weekend of October?

 

Premium screens for 2 weeks isn't an excuse. It would have them back on week 3 after losing them on week 2 to Halloween.

The question should be is why the hell did they give Black Adam a 200 million budget in the first place. It's like they wanted it to flop. Then again this is the same studio that made the brilliant decision to send all of their movies to HBO max last year.

[Eric is Anxious]

2 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

The question should be is why the hell did they give Black Adam a 200 million budget in the first place. It's like they wanted it to flop. Then again this is the same studio that made the brilliant decision to send all of their movies to HBO max last year.

Outside of the fact that it’s not as easy to cut a big budget as people might think, it also makes sense to spend money for a major movie star who likely commands a big paycheck and believe he and the DC brand can carry to major numbers.

 

Plus there is a million outside factors that nobody expected would happen with Black Adam when it was greenlit. Do you really think WB expected, when they began development on this project in 2017, and got the cast and crew underway in 2019, that China would ban every possible film? Or that Russia would no longer be a market? Or that the economy and exchange rates overseas would be disastrous, hurting the movie’s international box office?

 

I get its fun to hate on WB, but please use some perspective on these movies and the multi-year process that goes in them, alright?

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Why in God's name didn't WB open Black Adam on the first weekend of October?

 

Premium screens for 2 weeks isn't an excuse. It would have them back on week 3 after losing them on week 2 to Halloween.

They probably wanted a few weeks between that and Don't Worry Darling (for promotional reasons) and figured that it would hold fine after the inevitable Black Panther hit into early December (since the rest of November is mostly made up of prestige dramas that won't impact it).

[Eric is Anxious]

 

[cax16]

25 minutes ago, Eric Carey said:

Outside of the fact that it’s not as easy to cut a big budget as people might think, it also makes sense to spend money for a major movie star who likely commands a big paycheck and believe he and the DC brand can carry to major numbers.

 

Plus there is a million outside factors that nobody expected would happen with Black Adam when it was greenlit. Do you really think WB expected, when they began development on this project in 2017, and got the cast and crew underway in 2019, that China would ban every possible film? Or that Russia would no longer be a market? Or that the economy and exchange rates overseas would be disastrous, hurting the movie’s international box office?

 

I get its fun to hate on WB, but please use some perspective on these movies and the multi-year process that goes in them, alright?

These are good points. You brought up stuff I didn’t even consider as well. Overall I think WB has to be ok with how BA has performed in this current situation. 

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, cax16 said:

These are good points. You brought up stuff I didn’t even consider as well. Overall I think WB has to be ok with how BA has performed in this current situation. 

 

I'd actually even say they are more than okay with it.  Thrilled - maybe not.  But after The Suicide Squad last year, a critical darling that was a massive bomb and also not loved by the GA (look at Rotten Tomatoes 82%), they have to be happy they have a more GA positive movie (RT 89%) that brought in TONS of non-supers fans.  As mentioned by Deadline on the opening weekend, more people came to see Black Adam b/c they were Rock fans than b/c they were going to a supers movie.  That's huge going forward if you can find a movie that actually COMBINES Rock fans and DC supers fans.  That may be a Superman/Shazaam/Black Adam movie as a lead group...

 

Edit to Add:  Right now, according to the numbers, Black Adam is already at $319.665M WW - if that's not a typo, it's going over $400M without China and Russia.  Again, they are gonna be pretty happy with that - budget was $195M, so getting to $390M gets it to our board 2x budget "disappointing level", but not a flop or a bomb.  Getting more will be gravy...

Edited November 6, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Johnny Tran]

12 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

Shang-Chi

 

Barely..  All BA needed for $425m-$450m+ was a better release date. 

[The GOAT]

 

[Krissykins]

 

This is incredible for Smile and so very well deserved. I knew I sensed a breakout, but not as big as this. The legs are fantastic. 

 

Biggest horror film worldwide since A Quiet Place 2, and that was PG13. 
 

Very strong for Black Adam, Ticket to Paradise, Prey for the Devil & Terrifier 2. 
 

Halloween Ends managed to pass $100m worldwide, and Kills internationally. 

[cax16]

7 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

 

[VENOM]

1 hour ago, The GOAT said:

 

lmao I don’t know why Dwayne is batting so hard for a film that will be lucky to make 1 dollar profit.. drawing even more attention to a flop isn’t really ideal. Rolling out the covid carpet of excuses is also nonsensical after we’ve had Top Gun Maverick glide to an easy 700M DOM alone with older audiences.

Edited November 6, 2022 by VENOM

[cax16]

7 minutes ago, VENOM said:

lmao I don’t know why Dwayne is batting so hard for a film that will be lucky to make 1 dollar profit.. drawing even more attention to a flop isn’t really ideal. Rolling out the covid carpet of excuses is also nonsensical after we’ve had Top Gun Maverick glide to an easy 700M DOM alone with older audiences.

I mean it’s pretty obvious why he does this stuff, for money. His production company is in on the movie and he wants to see his movie flourish and build out from there, he’ll just make more money. This isn’t rocket science folks.   
 

 

Edited November 6, 2022 by cax16

[CaptNathanBrittles]

With another good hold next weeekend can BLACK ADAM make it 4-in-a-row?

[cax16]

3 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

With another good hold next weeekend can BLACK ADAM make it 4-in-a-row?

Yes, if it goes out and does 205m next weekend it may 4 peat. 

[Eric is Anxious]

15 minutes ago, VENOM said:

lmao I don’t know why Dwayne is batting so hard for a film that will be lucky to make 1 dollar profit.. drawing even more attention to a flop isn’t really ideal. Rolling out the covid carpet of excuses is also nonsensical after we’ve had Top Gun Maverick glide to an easy 700M DOM alone with older audiences.

Because that’s part of his job? He’s promoting a movie he stars and produces and wants to see succeed. Actors promote their movies and hype up how they’re doing all the time. Why is it when Dwayne does it that everybody goes crazy and mocks him and only him?

 

And it’s not like this is some Skyscraper-level bomb. This is likely going to be in the top 15 for the year and those numbers, at least domestically, look good on paper on the average Twitter user. Only box office nerds and weirdo fanboys think this film is bombing like crazy. And even then, this isn’t some Ishtar-level failure.