THE OFFICIAL BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER WEEKEND THREAD | 181M OW

[charlie Jatinder]

Remember when A was basically given for MCU film in Phase 3 and it used to be like does it even matter, to now when A is coming as a pleasant experience. 

 

 

Phase 4*

[GOGODanca]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am thinking 60M 2nd weekend leading to 425-450M.

That would be a 66% drop assuming 180m OW, why do you think it will drop that much?

[Verrows]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am thinking 60M 2nd weekend leading to 425-450M.

I have to think the WOM yields a better 2nd weekend than that.

 

Unless you're think OW is much lower than anticipated. Even MoM after a $187.4M OW managed a $61M+ 2nd weekend.

[LonePirate]

1 hour ago, Noctis said:

Angela Bassett was the goddamn MVP.

Bassett was very, very good in the film. She commanded the screen with every scene. Her performance alone is worth the ticket price. 

[Factcheck]

185x2.7= 500

Edited November 12, 2022 by Factcheck

[Spidey Freak]

2 hours ago, snarkmachine said:

 

I find it odd they're not warming up with a starter Avengers movie first to establish character dynamics and relationships. None of the characters would have even met before Kang Dynasty before being thrown into the messy plot. It would be like starting the last saga with Infinity 

 

Eh... the Big 3 were separated from each other throughout Infinity War and Hawkeye wasn't even included. Hulk and Natasha had smaller roles as well. The pre-established relationships didn't even matter except for Tony/Peter. The main appeal of IW was Thanos and the Avengers meeting new characters like Spidey, GotG and Strange.

 

Among the current batch, Spidey/Strange and Thor/Hulk already have strong relationships and Captain Marvel has met most of them.

Edited November 12, 2022 by Spidey Freak

[grey ghost]

500m is back on the menu, boys.

[Liiviig 1998]

How will Friday being inflated affect next weekend? . Hadn't considered that.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, Verrows said:

I have to think the WOM yields a better 2nd weekend than that.

 

Unless you're think OW is much lower than anticipated. Even MoM after a $187.4M OW managed a $61M+ 2nd weekend.

MOM Sunday was bit low due to mother's day. Could have hit 189-190M may be.

 

Here we will likely have 175-180M weekend with FRI boosted from holiday, so comparable number with MOM is like 172 vs 189.

 

I suppose it can do 70M if SAT hold is better than I am thinking, but for now 60M will be good hold. 

[Liiviig 1998]

What has been hurting phase 4

 

1. Disney + 

2. Lack of a clear focus

3. No POV Characters(tony/cap)

4. World building. Too much going on, too many setups without a proper development or end in sight

 

5. Writing.

 

Like honestly what was the whole point of the CIA plot in WF except to set up a future project. It dragged the whole movie . Should have been cut .

 

Have never liked 4 movie year plan . Should remain with 3.

 

Phase 5 will probably handle some of this but hope the writing meets the standard.

 

Some despise the infinity saga structure and yes some parts need to be worked on (villians,third act) but it was very consistent and the solo films and characters stood on their own while extending the whole narrative with some minor  introduction of faction, technology, infinity stones and proper mid credit and post credit scenes that were actually important to the plot.

 

Phase four post credit scenes didn't feel plot /story driven . They were basically did they " do the THING," or " which character X was introduced".

 

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

What has been hurting phase 4

 

1. Disney + 

2. Lack of a clear focus

3. No POV Characters(tony/cap)

4. World building. Too much going on, too many setups without a proper development or end in sight

 

5. Writing.

1. Yes, but if the content on D+ was good it would have been blessing

2. Yes, heard this alot that Marvel is making movies just because they can and are just cashing goodwill of Infinity Saga

3. Don't think it matter if quality was good

4. Yes, things getting too comic-booky, leaving non-comic book crowd weirded out. Lost the realism of Infinity Saga.

 

5. A big yes.

 

Basically all 5 are somewhat right but all 5 won't be an issue if quality was delivering.

[Flopped]

I know I'm the only one that cares, but do you have Friday numbers for other movies? 

[THUNDER BIRD]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

1. Yes, but if the content on D+ was good it would have been blessing

2. Yes, heard this alot that Marvel is making movies just because they can and are just cashing goodwill of Infinity Saga

3. Don't think it matter if quality was good

4. Yes, things getting too comic-booky, leaving non-comic book crowd weirded out. Lost the realism of Infinity Saga.

 

5. A big yes.

 

Basically all 5 are somewhat right but all 5 won't be an issue if quality was delivering.

It's not exclusive though, Quality is suffering because of those things.

 

You are making too much content and eventually you'll loose control over it and quality will suffer.

 

Not focusing oncharacters is going to make things messy,  certainly not helped by making characters taking back seat in their own movie.

 

Not having a direction is jarring for audience, you can't expect people to have knowledge of what you're doing beforehand.

[DAJK]

Excited to see if Fabelmans can pull off a 50+k PTA. 

 

Wakanda Forever is certainly looking like it's having a bigger true Friday than MoM pretty much everywhere I look (and in the locations where MoM was ahead, it's still pretty much a statistical tie). Makes sense given Veterans' Day holiday. WOM seems pretty good too, I'd be surprised if the weekend estimate came in at anything less than 180M.

[Verrows]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Excited to see if Fabelmans can pull off a 50+k PTA. 

 

Wakanda Forever is certainly looking like it's having a bigger true Friday than MoM pretty much everywhere I look (and in the locations where MoM was ahead, it's still pretty much a statistical tie). Makes sense given Veterans' Day holiday. WOM seems pretty good too, I'd be surprised if the weekend estimate came in at anything less than 180M.

What are you seeing for Saturday?

[BluKyberCrystal]

1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

What has been hurting phase 4

 

1. Disney + 

2. Lack of a clear focus

3. No POV Characters(tony/cap)

4. World building. Too much going on, too many setups without a proper development or end in sight

 

5. Writing.

 

Like honestly what was the whole point of the CIA plot in WF except to set up a future project. It dragged the whole movie . Should have been cut .

 

Have never liked 4 movie year plan . Should remain with 3.

 

Phase 5 will probably handle some of this but hope the writing meets the standard.

 

Some despise the infinity saga structure and yes some parts need to be worked on (villians,third act) but it was very consistent and the solo films and characters stood on their own while extending the whole narrative with some minor  introduction of faction, technology, infinity stones and proper mid credit and post credit scenes that were actually important to the plot.

 

Phase four post credit scenes didn't feel plot /story driven . They were basically did they " do the THING," or " which character X was introduced".

 

 

 

 

I understand "keep it simple stupid", but can you really just leave it so basic at this point? As to writing, I feel like there is high level of rose tinted glasses for what happened though out the first 3 phases. Like you bring up the mid and post credit scenes. How many of them had at least one legit scene that was important to the plot?

 

Iron Man - yes

TIH - no

Iron Man 2 - yes

Thor - no

Cap - no

Avengers - yes

Iron Man 3 - no

TDW - yes

TWS - yes

GotG - no

AoU - yes

Ant-Man - no

Civil War - yes

Strange - no

vol 2 - no

Homecoming - no

Ragnarok - yes

Black Panther - no

 

I've personally preferred phase 4 to at least 1 and 2, but even if I'm not in the majority, has the box office actually suffered? The landscape has changed post-Endgame, and yet the box office has kept to a similar level to phase 3 with the exception being Black Widow, Shang-Chi, and Eternals, which came out early in the attempt to return to normalcy. They lost, Russia, and the Ukraine, but the last three were basically the equivalent of Infinity War, Civil War, and Ragnarok without those countries, and Disney blunting a bit of their legs with their Disney+ strategy for home release. I get inflation is a thing, but even still, they are doing well.

[Jiffy]

5 hours ago, M37 said:

I'll not only co-sign, but go one step further:

 

I think you can draw a nice little triangle of TFA --> Endgame --> NWH in terms of their opening week gross ($391-->$474-->$386) and literally map out the peak of modern box office grosses. From an OW/Week hype and grossing potential perspective, IMO the best BO days are in the rear view mirror, in that I don't believe anything is topping those marks for a very, very long time*

 

The longest gap between OW records since Jaws is only 4.5 years (Lost World to Harry Potter), and it might be 10-15 years for ticket prices to inflate enough at current admit levels to reach even $300M, let alone challenge Endgame

List courtesy of Forbes

 

Even from a total gross perspective, maybe you get something like an Avatar/Titanic (aka TGM) that comes along and with great WOM and accumulates a high total over time, but I won't be surprised if $800M DOM stays out out reach for a while too*. In some ways, NWH and TGM - both a mix of modern story but also nostalgia - might have been the last hurrah, with the Batman/MoM/JWD/Thor/BPWF level as the new baseline level for tentpoles

 

And sure, some of this is the result of the pandemic, but I believe it just accelerated the process that was already beginning, which is as streaming options pulled away more casual viewers, movies are becoming a more upscale/high priced, experience driven - rather than content - entertainment. Unless it reverses (and I don't think it will) that leads to a smaller theatrical audience (fewer admissions), but with a much larger emphasis on PLF

 

*No, I haven't forgotten what film comes out next month. There's a reason I started an Under club...

I do think the OW record will stand for quite awhile now just due to the unique circumstances of having 7-11 years of build-up followed by COVID decimating the industry for a couple years, but I am trying to be more optimistic about theatrical's prospects long-term. Big test may be coming in December (for total gross at least).

[Krissykins]

I went to IMAX 3D last night and I can say that the visuals in the 2 minute Avatar trailer were more striking than anything in the following 2 hours and 41 minutes of Wakanda Forever. 

[LeoC]

13 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I went to IMAX 3D last night and I can say that the visuals in the 2 minute Avatar trailer were more striking than anything in the following 2 hours and 41 minutes of Wakanda Forever. 

I can say that the visuals in the IMAX intro/countdown were more striking than the Avater trailer.

[THUNDER BIRD]

51 minutes ago, BluKyberCrystal said:

has the box office actually suffered?

Yes.

 

Both of Dr Strange and Thor would've done more if they were actually good.

 

You can check their trending or just check the scores on Post Track and Cinemascore and you'll find that audience reception has been poor.