THE OFFICIAL BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER WEEKEND THREAD | 181M OW

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Since the thread has apparently already moved on from discussing BPWF and onto Avatar, just gonna drop this here 🙃

 

 

 

Respect the hustle 

 

I buy the “post pandemic moviegoing is depressed” theory now but it still only gets me to low 600s with xmas boost. 

[M37]

1 minute ago, Legion By Night said:

Respect the hustle 

 

I buy the “post pandemic moviegoing is depressed” theory now but it still only gets me to low 600s with xmas boost. 

Not a hustle, just want to collect as many OUTs as possible before tickets go on sale 

 

Yeah, the holiday period plus high ATP is creates a high floor, even if the analysis is correct. So here’s a question: what sells more tickets overall, BPWF or Avatar 2? 

[Factcheck]

24 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

DS2 was the next big multiverse chapter after the gigantic hit of NWH and was marketed as this crazy fest of cameos and appearances.

 

People acting like it is a normal sequel and made what it did because of the popularity of Strange 1 and/or Wandavision is either being naive or dishonest.

No, they didn't market MoM as the next multiversal event; people assumed it themselves. Doctor Strange was the 2nd lead in Infinity War importance-wise, so when he appeared in NWH, it was obvious that people would see him as the next Tony Stark figure of the MCU, get excited for the movie, and see the movie as the most important movie of the current saga. But if they didn't get what they had assumed, then it was not Marvel Studios' fault.

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Respect the hustle 

 

I buy the “post pandemic moviegoing is depressed” theory now but it still only gets me to low 600s with xmas boost. 

 

no hustle needed

 

[hw64]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

It seems like for Avatar, the only way to go is down. 
 

Avengers - Age of Ultron (down $164m)

Jurassic World - Fallen Kingdom (down $236m)

Black Panther - Wakanda Forever (down ~$230m)

Force Awakens - Last Jedi (down $316m)

 

First Avatar did $749.8m. I think Top Gun Maverick wins the year, comfortably. 

 

Gap between movies: 3 years

Gap between movies: 3 years

Gap between movies: 4 years

Gap between movies: 2 years

 

Gap between Avatar and Avatar 2: 13 years

Might be a fundamental difference there?

[Cooper Legion]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Not a hustle, just want to collect as many OUTs as possible before tickets go on sale 

 

Yeah, the holiday period plus high ATP is creates a high floor, even if the analysis is correct. So here’s a question: what sells more tickets overall, BPWF or Avatar 2? 

I mean, I still see BP like 500 at best, so Avatar

[charlie Jatinder]

Endgame is only sequel to $500M/$600M+ grosser to increase I believe.

[Liiviig 1998]

You forgot infinity war. Increased from avengers

[charlie Jatinder]

32 minutes ago, M37 said:

Since the thread has apparently already moved on from discussing BPWF and onto Avatar, just gonna drop this here 🙃

 

 

 

$1,000,000,000+

more likely than under $573M

Edited November 13, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

You forgot infinity war. Increased from avengers

As much I consider TA, AIW and AEG a trilogy, record books won't do that.

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Endgame is only sequel to $500M/$600M+ grosser to increase I believe.

Infinity was release just 1 year apart, which seems to be better for sequels than 2,3,4 & 5 years.

[Cooper Legion]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Endgame is only sequel to $500M/$600M+ grosser to increase I believe.

Same trick as 200M openers all over 600M

[eddyxx]

46 minutes ago, Heroicpiglet said:

Lupita's figure almost makes me straight

I’m gonna need this movie on Disney plus by New Year’s Day so I can appreciate her in that green body suit.

[jedijake]

50 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

56.5-57 as of the last update.

Okay, but it still has an excellent chance of getting to $180 million.

[M37]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Endgame is only sequel to $500M/$600M+ grosser to increase I believe.

Yeah, but that’s a pretty limited group with few sequels

 

There have been increase at say $300M plus over last 20 years

LOTR:ROTK

Deathly Hallows pt2

Catching Fire

But in each of these cases - as with Endgame - it was part of known series, a sequential story arc, where it was building to a pay off. Not a more typical Hollywood sequel - this made a ton of money let’s make another one/franchise it - like JWFK & JWD, Transformers, etc

Much more difficult to recapture the magic of an amazing first outing like JW, TFA, even BP … and probably Avatar 

[M37]

31 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

I mean, I still see BP like 500 at best, so Avatar

Notice I said tickets (admits), not gross. If the ATP is like $15 - 40% higher thanks to 3D surcharges - it could be pretty close depending on where each winds up 

[The Dark Alfred]

A lot will depend on the WOM obviously. Don't expect AVATAR 2 to have a great one. You can wow a lot of people with great visuals, but if the story is poor, decreases are coming in many territories. It's safe to say TGM's domestic crown is secured, BP2 and A2 not touching it.

Edited November 13, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yeah, but that’s a pretty limited group with few sequels

 

There have been increase at say $300M plus over last 20 years

LOTR:ROTK

Deathly Hallows pt2

Catching Fire

But in each of these cases - as with Endgame - it was part of known series, a sequential story arc, where it was building to a pay off. Not a more typical Hollywood sequel - this made a ton of money let’s make another one/franchise it - like JWFK & JWD, Transformers, etc

Much more difficult to recapture the magic of an amazing first outing like JW, TFA, even BP … and probably Avatar 

Other 300+:

dory

frozen 2

TS4

PotCDMC

IM3

T:RotF

SMFFH

gotg2

SW:RotS

Minions Gru

thor L&T 

Two towers

 

Excluding McU, mostly the latter case of typical Hollywood sequels imo

 

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Notice I said tickets (admits), not gross. If the ATP is like $15 - 40% higher thanks to 3D surcharges - it could be pretty close depending on where each winds up 

Got avatar ahead by 20%+ gross and I don’t think the atp discrepancy will be quite that large.

[Brainbug]

31 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

You forgot infinity war. Increased from avengers

 

You forgot Age of Ultron. But dont worry. Everyone else has as well.