A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

The Deadline article said The Batman had 17.6 thursday for a 137mil. weekend, but its Thursday showings started at 3pm, while A2's start at 7pm.

Also JW had a 18.6mil Thursday, also from 7pm showings like A2, but had a 208mil OW.

 

So why are people putting predictions around The Batmans OW ?.

 

Also in the article they put this -

 

 

Does that parry up with peoples tracking estimates on here?, and if it DOES, why is there so much negativity?.

 

In classic Deadline fashion, they got it wrong, pretty sure screenings started at 3pm or 4pm, not 7pm.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

The Deadline article said The Batman had 17.6 thursday for a 137mil. weekend, but its Thursday showings started at 3pm, while A2's start at 7pm.

Also JW had a 18.6mil Thursday, also from 7pm showings like A2, but had a 208mil OW.

 

So why are people putting predictions around The Batmans OW ?.

 

A2 shows started at 3PM also. Mine was at 4PM. They just got that wrong/. 

As for the JW comparison, 2022 isn't 2015. JWD only went 8x this summer.

[CloneWars]

Having seen this, I don't think it will be as well recieved as the first one. The film could have been 30 minutes shorter, and well, for a 3 hour plus film, not much happens honestly. 

 

Though, I still think $450m Domestic. China will probably eat this up which will propel it past the original world wide. 

[BluKyberCrystal]

I know it's way too early to ask this, but is there ever a small chance this has the legs of the first one domestically? The novelty is gone. Even if it's a better film, can it match the 3D craze it created with the first?

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

 

 

Also in the article they put this -

 

 

Does that parry up with peoples tracking estimates on here?, and if it DOES, why is there so much negativity?.

It does, but presales being spread across the weekend doesn't necessarily mean IM will be as high as presales suggest. There was a fairly involved discussion of this in the tracking thread last night if you go back to page 606. 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadline is wrong as previews started at ***3PM***. 👍

Oh really, how would they not know this?

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadline is wrong as A2's previews started at ***3PM***. 👍

 

2 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

In classic Deadline fashion, they got it wrong, pretty sure screenings started at 3pm or 4pm, not 7pm.

 

2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

A2 shows started at 3PM also. Mine was at 4PM. They just got that wrong/. 

As for the JW comparison, 2022 isn't 2015. JWD only went 8x this summer.

 

Let's just get this out of the way:

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, BluKyberCrystal said:

I know it's way too early to ask this, but is there ever a small chance this has the legs of the first one domestically? The novelty is gone. Even if it's a better film, can it match the 3D craze it created with the first?

 

It's not too early because the answer is unequivocally, no. It would be extremely lucky to even get half the legs of the first. 

[krla]

2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

The question is did Avatar left a cultural impact or not

 

2 hours ago, adaros said:

You spending your time on internet funny forum in 2022 asking about funny strange blue cat people CGI movie from 2009 that nobody remember is contender for cultural impact

Cultural impact is best observed through those who never saw the film. There are kids who have never watched Top Gun who quote the movie, even though they don't know that's where the quotes came from. They pick it up from others who did. And that's what cultural impact is. I'm sure there are plenty of examples with Avatar, like some clothing styles, music, or quotes permeating into the wider culture, but I can't think of any right now. Maybe papyrus?

 

14 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

What are the odds of his just having avg legs. We are hoping it pulls an Avatar but that was 2009 and pre COVID. The Boxoffice landscape is completely different now.

I'd imagine the odds are small. It's holiday season, with no competition, and demand for PLFs will help stretch those legs. Reviews are good. 

 

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

STOP CRIBBING OUR NOTES, DEADLINE!!!!!! 

Deadline writer calls his source:

 

DL: "You got any good predictions for me? Is Avatar still looking at $200m+?"

 

Studio source: "Give me a minute" *checks bot tracking thread* "Looks like our internal tracking is showing a drop in predictions."

[Menor the Destroyer]

Jokes aside, I'm pretty sure Deadline actually does have a Comscore source that can give them reliable data, though they sometimes choose to present that in a slanted way. Here, it looks like they're giving it straight, which is rare but not unheard of. 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Oh really, how would they not know this?

 

If I'm being generous? Copy-n-paste error from some sort of template. 

 

If I'm not?  

 

Well, Deadline is sometimes unfairly a meme around here.

 

...

 

On the other hand, it would be fair to note WHY the memes about Deadline got started (and keep going)  in the first place.

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Porthos

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, BluKyberCrystal said:

I know it's way too early to ask this, but is there ever a small chance this has the legs of the first one domestically? The novelty is gone. Even if it's a better film, can it match the 3D craze it created with the first?

It’s not too early.

 

there is no chance.

[BluKyberCrystal]

3 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

It's not too early because the answer is unequivocally, no. It would be extremely lucky to even get half the legs of the first. 

Sorry. I'm just seeing some pretty big predictions so I wasn't really sure. Thank you.

[M37]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

If I'm being generous? Copy-n-paste error from some sort of template.

The last time they did a Thursday night update previews were still usually starting at 7PM

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Jokes aside, I'm pretty sure Deadline actually does have a Comscore source that can give them reliable data, though they sometimes choose to present that in a slanted way. Here, it looks like they're giving it straight, which is rare but not unheard of. 

 

Or a studio source who has real time data, which is more or less the same thing.

 

Me?  I'm just glad that it looks like our attempts at figuring out the ATP adjustments for A2 look to be in the right ballpark.

[eXtacy]

If Batman can make 137m of 17m Thursday then Avatar 2 should be hitting 150m+. Its Saturday and Sunday should be much stronger and less frontloaded. Not seeing where the 130-140m projections come from.

[Cooper Legion]

If Disney rounds to nearest mil 17 would be my bet, but if they report a decimal place I’m taking the under

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

If Batman can make 137m of 17m Thursday then Avatar 2 should be hitting 150m+. Its Saturday and Sunday should be much stronger and less frontloaded. Not seeing where the 130-140m projections come from.

Batman’s 17.6 pure Thur led to a 130M pure Th+FSS — after burning off 4M of demand with early shows, which inflates the multi.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Korra Legion

[Ledmonkey96]

2 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

If Batman can make 137m of 17m Thursday then Avatar 2 should be hitting 150m+. Its Saturday and Sunday should be much stronger and less frontloaded. Not seeing where the 130-140m projections come from.

I'll disagree with this on the basis that the extra run time means they're getting 1 fewer showing per theater per day compared to The batman

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Another funny typo from the Deadline article. BPWF had a long ass opening weekend! 

Avatar 2 won’t be frontloaded like Marvel pics (Note Black Panther: Wakanda Forever posted a $28M Thursday night, an $84.2M Friday and $181.3M 30-day)