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Eric Quinn

A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

By Eric Quinn, in Numbers and Data

How old were you when Avatar (2009) first came out?  

176 members have voted

  1. 1. How old were you when Avatar (2009) first came out?


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Posted by Water Bottle,

THE AVATAR SALE IS NOW LIVE!   $10 off the Gold Account for one month for $15! Or get the whole year $65 off for a total of $100!   Get your likes for the event (or bomb but hopefully event) of the year! It's the Way of Water and as Water Bottle, I hope the water flows! To us! In the form of your donations!   Okay I'll stop bring cringe.   If you want a monthly account go here: https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/subscriptions/ If you want an
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Posted by Cap,

I know I’m going to get shit for this, but eh, LFG.   We are a box office forum. We talk about Avatar excessively because it’s the biggest box office film of all time.  Most of the other places on The Internet TM do not. For the General Audience, this is a sequel to that cool movie from 12 years ago. To Nerd Culture, it’s the sequel to the movie they love to mock and meme. And James Cameron did most of his best work in the 1980’s, which is like asking Gen Z to marathon TCM. There isn’t
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Posted by Porthos,

I know we're in the middle of Oscar Talk, but since I just caught up with the thread, I want to swing back to something that was discussed about an hour ago.       As a not quite charter member of Wait For Boxing Day To Really Say, but a strong subscriber to the newsletter, I understand this comment.   I really do.   At the same the world is a *LOT* different now than it was in 2009.   We've all listed the reasons, but one major thing that isn'
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Posted by charlie Jatinder,

₹364 crores.
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Posted by M37,

At 173 pages, I'm signing off of this crazy weekend thread   But I wish all of you well on your upcoming journey (no matter how far down the path each of you may be)   Pls don't ban me @XXR 5x OW or Bust

Future BOFFY Winner

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Brainbug Global Phenomenon

Brainbug

Posted
Posted

All jokes aside, i suppose 1,4B - 1,7B is a fair range for Avatar 2 at this point. It obviously depends a lot on the legs and while i dont think they will be stellar based on everything ive read here, i still woudnt want to bet too much against Cameron.

 

The most important thing is, that a certain movie now has a good chance of not beeing overtaken by the blue people!

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ZattMurdock Global Phenomenon

ZattMurdock

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

Then why did you first pull the seniority card? If respect matters to you, you wouldn't have condescendingly responded to someone, "Thanos Legion was a regular here before you were here, Junior."

 

We all slip up sometimes - no shame in apologizing and moving on.

 

Peace,

Mike

You are old school af. And while seniority doesn’t matter, I remember you and you signing your posts gives me nostalgic vibes. The way I see it, being blunt against a gratuitous attack is fine. And I would definitely apologize if the ‘apology’ I got was sincere, and not a backhanded threat.

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Eric Quinn Global Phenomenon

Eric Quinn

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Sadly it is time to admit the Deadline early numbers have been mostly accurate or even too optimistic for several months now. So when they come in with a 25 million true Friday number today, believe it.

The Batman

Early Deadline: 55M

Actual Friday: 56.6M

 

Doctor Strange 2

Early Deadline: 85M

Actual Friday: 90.7M

 

Top Gun 2

Early Deadline: 50M

Actual Friday: 52M

 

Dominion

Early Deadline: 55.5M

Actual Friday: 59.6M

 

Lightyear

Early Deadline: 23M

Actual Friday: 20.7M

 

Minions 2

Early Deadline: 43M

Actual Friday: 48.2M

 

Thor 4

Early Deadline: 70M

Actual Friday: 69.5M

 

Nope

Early Deadline: 20M

Actual Friday: 19.5M

 

Black Adam

Early Deadline: 25M

Actual Friday: 26.7M

 

Black Panther

Early Deadline: 80M

Actual Friday: 84.3M

 

So I mean...that's not really the case? Like some are closer than others, but it's charitable and easy to say from all this that Avatar 2's actual friday will increase from an early Deadline projection. And like as always, "lol Deadline" is still 100% valid.

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Eric Quinn Global Phenomenon

Eric Quinn

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

You are old school af. And while seniority doesn’t matter, I remember you and you signing your posts gives me nostalgic vibes. The way I see it, being blunt against a gratuitous attack is fine. And I would definitely apologize if the ‘apology’ I got was sincere, and not a backhanded threat.

I'm sorry for my harsh statement. I thought I was just making an observation, but I realized the way I worded it made it sound way more disrespectufl than I intended. But intentions don't equal actions, and my actions were wrong. I still don't agree with you going after me like this, especially as a staff member, but I am sorry.

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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

The Batman

Early Deadline: 55M

Actual Friday: 56.6M

 

Doctor Strange 2

Early Deadline: 85M

Actual Friday: 90.7M

 

Top Gun 2

Early Deadline: 50M

Actual Friday: 52M

 

Dominion

Early Deadline: 55.5M

Actual Friday: 59.6M

 

Lightyear

Early Deadline: 23M

Actual Friday: 20.7M

 

Minions 2

Early Deadline: 43M

Actual Friday: 48.2M

 

Thor 4

Early Deadline: 70M

Actual Friday: 69.5M

 

Nope

Early Deadline: 20M

Actual Friday: 19.5M

 

Black Adam

Early Deadline: 25M

Actual Friday: 26.7M

 

Black Panther

Early Deadline: 80M

Actual Friday: 84.3M

 

So I mean...that's not really the case? Like some are closer than others, but it's charitable and easy to say from all this that Avatar 2's actual friday will increase from an early Deadline projection. And like as always, "lol Deadline" is still 100% valid.

Honestly this looks better than I expected. although I guess the fact that you listed the+Fri instead of true Fri makes the % look much more reasonable than in reality (I know that's how deadline presents them).

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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:


Not on the optimistic part but it looks fairly good on the accuracy part. Eight of the 10 examples above are within 6% of the actual. 

I was about to post exactly this when I had a realization that led me to post the above instead 😛

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

The Batman

Early Deadline: 55M

Actual Friday: 56.6M

 

Doctor Strange 2

Early Deadline: 85M

Actual Friday: 90.7M

 

Top Gun 2

Early Deadline: 50M

Actual Friday: 52M

 

Dominion

Early Deadline: 55.5M

Actual Friday: 59.6M

 

Lightyear

Early Deadline: 23M

Actual Friday: 20.7M

 

Minions 2

Early Deadline: 43M

Actual Friday: 48.2M

 

Thor 4

Early Deadline: 70M

Actual Friday: 69.5M

 

Nope

Early Deadline: 20M

Actual Friday: 19.5M

 

Black Adam

Early Deadline: 25M

Actual Friday: 26.7M

 

Black Panther

Early Deadline: 80M

Actual Friday: 84.3M

 

So I mean...that's not really the case? Like some are closer than others, but it's charitable and easy to say from all this that Avatar 2's actual friday will increase from an early Deadline projection. And like as always, "lol Deadline" is still 100% valid.

The consistent theme there is they tend to underestimate the walk-up heavier films, and over-estimate the pre-sale heavy ones. We know from Thursday that Avatar is more the latter, so their early Fri projection will be on target or too high, not likely too low 

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tawasal Global Phenomenon

tawasal

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Alligator Zatt said:

Thanos Legion was a regular here before you were here, Junior. It’s the biggest film franchise in planet Earth and rightfully so. Good luck keeping movie theaters lights on without them.

This is sometimes what makes it harder to come back and post regularly here. 

 

Edit: I am here sometimes lurking and looking at numbers but I miss the olden days. 

Edited by tawasal
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XXRDJisDoctorDoom Global Phenomenon

XXRDJisDoctorDoom

Posted
Posted
Just now, M37 said:

The consistent theme there is they tend to underestimate the walk-up heavier films, and over-estimate the pre-sale heavy ones. We know from Thursday that Avatar is more the latter, so their early Fri projection will be on target or too high, not likely too low 


Which makes sense. Even for the best box office forecasters in the world, (i.e US), figuring out walkups is still a bitch.

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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, AJG said:

The cycle of famous directors bad mouthing King Feige before their latest movie mega-flops CONTINUES. Part of me wonders if they'll ever learn.


 

 

0C904FFD-7577-4225-A81D-597AB71B78AB.jpeg

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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

@Cap but we are on a good trajectory. 42 pages before even the early and wrong Friday estimates from Deadline. 100 pages seems possible!

James Cameron truly bringing back the old school flair 

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