A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I think animation is the biggest victim. 2022 was a terrible year for animated movies.

One could wonder if giving for "free" so many big Pixar/Disney title hurted the theatrical brand.

 

Because dreamwork/universal didn't do specially bad at all for the product quality.

 

When Minions The rise of Gru get to 940 millions and Sonic/Sing 2 pass 400 millions, something is broken with the Toy Story-Stange World numbers.

 

Encanto should not be this far from Sonic 2 

[kayumanggi]

10 minutes ago, Nero said:

Animation, also drama too. Movies made for older people are also not working. Landscape has really changed 

 

Ah, correct. A terrible struggle this year. I'm not even sure Oscar wins would even help.

[Nero]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Or, ala Minions 2, your marketing department comes up with a campaign that is A++ for its movie...

 

Marketing departments might need to get a 2nd look and figure out how to pull in movie goers for their particular movies and not just have "generic package" approaches...

 

Smile also did really well thanks to an unorthodox campaign...

For minions it wasn't marketing as such but due to that particular meme everyone was going dressed up in suits

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Or, ala Minions 2, your marketing department comes up with a campaign that is A++ for its movie...

 

Marketing departments might need to get a 2nd look and figure out how to pull in movie goers for their particular movies and not just have "generic package" approaches...

 

Smile also did really well thanks to an unorthodox campaign...

I'm betting M3GAN is coming to prove this point once again. 

 

Instead of the money shots, these days people like viral things, especially if they have meme potential and people can span them.

 

Cocaine Bear and Barbie are other examples of very effective marketing. 

 

We'll still have to know their BO's, but everyone is talking about them online.

[Noctis]

Just saw the film. 

 

A decent but bloated first hour, a great second hour, and an utterly incredible and emotional last hour. Thrilling and heartfelt and the themes come full circle.

 

Underwater world is breathtakingly gorgeous - if you don't love whales already (freak) this movie might make you love them.

 

And yes, I absolutely cringed multiple times at the horrendous and cheesy dialogue. But hey...some ridiculously cheesy lines is a small price to pay for the bigger picture!

[wildphantom]

Best Picture doesn’t really have a front runner at this point. Slightly Fabelmans, but its performance will have definitely knocked its momentum. 
 

Right now I’d say it’s between Fabelmans and EEAAO, with Maverick, Banshees and even Elvis as good outside bets.  
 

Those five and Tar are the six locks for Best Picture nominations. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by wildphantom

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

So maybe TGM shockingly gets BP after all? I guess it has to be the Fablemans if not?

Fablemans, Babylon, Everything Everywhere all at once (that has been the frontrunner for so long)

 

2023 BEST PICTURE ODDS

• The Fabelmans +120
• Babylon +500
• Everything Everywhere All At Once +600
• Women Talking +1000
• Tar +1100
• She Said +1200

It feels "wide open", would not fall from a chair if Avatar/Top Gun Maverick get nice nominations including BP yes.

[MovieMan89]

As far as Mario goes… you’d think people would have learned better than to doubt Illumination after this year?
 

Beyond that, as someone invested in the larger gaming community, I can tell you everyone in the industry is collectively losing their minds (in a good way) on social over what’s been shown for Mario so far. I’ve never seen anything remotely like it from gamers, who usually are the quickest to trash the marketing for video game adaptations. 
 

If kids are on board (and again I trust Illumination to work their magic there), it will be absolutely massive. I think people also forget Mario is one of the biggest pop culture icons of all time the world over. 

[Nero]

3 minutes ago, Barnack said:

One could wonder if giving for "free" so many big Pixar/Disney title hurted the theatrical brand.

 

Because dreamwork/universal didn't do specially bad at all for the product quality.

 

When Minions The rise of Gru get to 940 millions and Sonic/Sing 2 pass 400 millions, something is broken with the Toy Story-Stange World numbers.

 

Encanto should not be this far from Sonic 2 

Chapek damaged the brand. I mean soul should have been released in theatres. That movie was beautiful. Encanto they had already announced its Disney+ date. It's no wonder people took it for granted to just wait n watch at home approach..

[kayumanggi]

10 minutes ago, Vector Sigma said:

It depends because anime movies are showing great sings of growth. Not just in Japan, but globally. Dragonall Super and Jujutsu Kaisen 0 performed much better than if they were made in like 2017. I think Disney just has to retool and maybe change the art style a bit. The biggest thing was they trained audiences to watch their films on Disney plus. That was the same mistake Warner Bros did and look what happened to them. 

 

I very much agree. That is their biggest mistake. Since families can just watch them like after just 6 weeks, they would rather wait. Disney has removed that "event feel" from their animated movies.

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, ComicCon Express said:

Sorry, new to the forum but is it really ?. I don't see BP making more than 445. It's coming to disney+ also.

It won't hit d+ until Jan or Feb and will likely be ~440 on jan1 with 10-20 left on the tank.

[Eric Quinn]

TGM has that Best Picture win. It was basically bio-engineered in a lab to appeal to Academy boomer voters, it has huge industry support already, no real backlash has been brewing for it, the typical awards contenders have whiffed it at the box office (probably gonna whiff it forever tbh), even a "OMG this saved theaters forever" hook. Only other contender left is Everything Everywhere, which also has strong hooks behind it, but I think Top Gun's got just the ever-so-slightly stronger edge.

[kayumanggi]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Even with the struggles of most movies this fall, 2022 is still going to see a healthy gain over 2021. The fact studios are now back in the habit of promoting their early year through summer movies around Christmas (and will also be putting out more movies overall) has me confident the yearly box office will be back to around pre-2020 levels this time next year.

 

I really hope so. The sorry state of the box office from 2020 to 2021 made the forums a barren land. 😂

[Eric Quinn]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

As far as Mario goes… you’d think people would have learned better than to doubt Illumination after this year?
 

Beyond that, as someone invested in the larger gaming community, I can tell you everyone in the industry is collectively losing their minds (in a good way) on social over what’s been shown for Mario so far. I’ve never seen anything remotely like it from gamers, who usually are the quickest to trash the marketing for video game adaptations. 
 

If kids are on board (and again I trust Illumination to work their magic there), it will be absolutely massive. I think people also forget Mario is one of the biggest pop culture icons of all time the world over. 

I...wasn't doubting it would be a big hit? Just pretty sure it won't make Frozen numbers in Japan like you said.

[Eric Quinn]

10 minutes ago, ComicCon Express said:

Sorry, new to the forum but is it really ?. I don't see BP making more than 445. It's coming to disney+ also.

Hi SupermanLego.

 

Bye SupermanLego.

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Eric The Last Airbender said:

I...wasn't doubting it would be a big hit? Just pretty sure it won't make Frozen numbers in Japan like you said.

Maybe not, but I’m saying if it doesn’t I don’t think it’s even possible for that to happen anymore there. Japan movie going seems pretty bleak. I’d expect Mario to really turn it around if anything can. 

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Fablemans, Babylon, Everything Everywhere all at once (that has been the frontrunner for so long)

 

2023 BEST PICTURE ODDS

• The Fabelmans +120
• Babylon +500
• Everything Everywhere All At Once +600
• Women Talking +1000
• Tar +1100
• She Said +1200

It feels "wide open", would not fall from a chair if Avatar/Top Gun Maverick get nice nominations including BP yes.

Translating those odds for people (rounded):

Fablemans 45%

Babylon 17%

Eeaao 14%

WT 9%

Tar 8% 

She said 8%

 

Open race but fable seems to be the clear frontrunner atm

[Grebacio]

8 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Fablemans, Babylon, Everything Everywhere all at once (that has been the frontrunner for so long)

 

2023 BEST PICTURE ODDS

• The Fabelmans +120
• Babylon +500
• Everything Everywhere All At Once +600
• Women Talking +1000
• Tar +1100
• She Said +1200

It feels "wide open", would not fall from a chair if Avatar/Top Gun Maverick get nice nominations including BP yes.

Babylon has nearly 0% chance of winning. It's too divisive

I'd say rank the odds of winning like this:
1. Fablemans
2. Top Gun Maverick
3. Banshees
4. Everything Everywhere All Once
5. Avatar Way of Water
6. Babylon

Big Gap between EEOA and Avatar

Edited December 17, 2022 by Grebacio

[kayumanggi]

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

One could wonder if giving for "free" so many big Pixar/Disney title hurted the theatrical brand.

 

Because dreamwork/universal didn't do specially bad at all for the product quality.

 

When Minions The rise of Gru get to 940 millions and Sonic/Sing 2 pass 400 millions, something is broken with the Toy Story-Stange World numbers.

 

Encanto should not be this far from Sonic 2 

 

Again, it's really a big mistake on Disney's part. I mean, families would rather spend on animated movies that they won't be able to see in streaming anytime soon. Disney cannot deny this anymore because even their own productions like ENCANTO and STRANGE WORLD were victims. One can argue that it's because of this or that reason, but Disney and Pixar movies just don't make this kind of numbers. There is an effect.

[Nero]

Just now, Grebacio said:

Babylon has nearly 0% chance of winning. It's too divisive

I'd say rank the odds of winning like this:
1. Fablemans
2. Top Gun Maverick
3. Banshees
4. Everything Everywhere All Once
5. Avatar Way of Water

Not tar?