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A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

How old were you when Avatar (2009) first came out?  

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  1. 1. How old were you when Avatar (2009) first came out?



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I'm probably gonna be put into an insane asylum after saying this but here it goes. I think there's a non-zero chance that this movie fails to beat Top Gun Worldwide. I'm in New York and looking at ticket sales. Standard and premium are empty. I'm not just talking about the weekday (that's reasonable), I'm talking the weekend. If I didn't know any better I would think this was a 3 week old movie. It's very possible that this is just a walk up heavy movie. In my opinion, if people wanted to see the movie they'll see it. There just seems to be a genuine lack of interest. I don't know if it's the 3 hour runtime or lack of awareness the movie is out. There aren't even ads in Times Square station. I'm coming down from my 1.7 billion prediction. I wanna say 1.4 but now I'm really concerned. AMC 25 should never be empty on Christmas. 

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Just now, Vector Sigma said:

I'm probably gonna be put into an insane asylum after saying this but here it goes. I think there's a non-zero chance that this movie fails to beat Top Gun Worldwide. I'm in New York and looking at ticket sales. Standard and premium are empty. I'm not just talking about the weekday (that's reasonable), I'm talking the weekend. If I didn't know any better I would think this was a 3 week old movie. It's very possible that this is just a walk up heavy movie. In my opinion, if people wanted to see the movie they'll see it. There just seems to be a genuine lack of interest. I don't know if it's the 3 hour runtime or lack of awareness the movie is out. There aren't even ads in Times Square station. I'm coming down from my 1.7 billion prediction. I wanna say 1.4 but now I'm really concerned. AMC 25 should never be empty on Christmas. 

You won’t be going to Arkham. That’s an actual real possibility. I’d even say it’s on the double digits. We will have a clearer picture after the holidays. Something that people don’t seem to understand is that 2009’s Avatar just kept going for not just one month, but almost one year. There is absolute no way that happens again. Things will start getting crowded next February and won’t be slowing down.

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I have a hard time believing so much to the audience who saw the first has no interest in A2. The thing is, anyone who does have interest will end up seeing it in theaters. This is not a wait for streaming movie, everyone knows that. People interested will be seeing it in theaters, that much I know. 

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10 minutes ago, Vector Sigma said:

I think there's a non-zero chance that this movie fails to beat Top Gun Worldwide.

 

Change worldwide to domestic and you'll likely be correct, but it's playing really strong in several markets + it has China (which will be lackluster compared to prior expectations but $125M is $125M) so I don't see it having a problem passing TGM. 

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7 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

You won’t be going to Arkham. That’s an actual real possibility. I’d even say it’s on the double digits. We will have a clearer picture after the holidays. Something that people don’t seem to understand is that 2009’s Avatar just kept going for not just one month, but almost one year. There is absolute no way that happens again. Things will start getting crowded next February and won’t be slowing down.

I think the drop is gonna be nasty this week but the third week should be a bit better due to WOM. I've never seen such disinterest in a movie this big. 

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15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I have a hard time believing so much to the audience who saw the first has no interest in A2. The thing is, anyone who does have interest will end up seeing it in theaters. This is not a wait for streaming movie, everyone knows that. People interested will be seeing it in theaters, that much I know. 

You'd think so but, anecdotal of course, you'd be surprised at how many have already told me they'll wait for streaming on Disney+ even after I stressed how great it looks on a premium screen...

Edited by JohnnyGossamer
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34 minutes ago, Vector Sigma said:

I'm probably gonna be put into an insane asylum after saying this but here it goes. I think there's a non-zero chance that this movie fails to beat Top Gun Worldwide. I'm in New York and looking at ticket sales. Standard and premium are empty. I'm not just talking about the weekday (that's reasonable), I'm talking the weekend. If I didn't know any better I would think this was a 3 week old movie. It's very possible that this is just a walk up heavy movie. In my opinion, if people wanted to see the movie they'll see it. There just seems to be a genuine lack of interest. I don't know if it's the 3 hour runtime or lack of awareness the movie is out. There aren't even ads in Times Square station. I'm coming down from my 1.7 billion prediction. I wanna say 1.4 but now I'm really concerned. AMC 25 should never be empty on Christmas. 

Could be that Domestic will underperform still hope for strong OS run.

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19 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

You'd think so but, anecdotal of course, you'd be surprised at how many have already told me they'll wait for streaming on Disney+ even after I stressed how great it looks on a premium screen...

 

$22/ticket 3d IMAX vs $2.99/month D+ no commercials and already paid thanks to Black Friday 2022.

 

The best value calculus is real!  $22 ticket*4 family members for $88 vs a night home for the $2.99'month fee - not as good a watch, but way better an overall value...

 

PS - And Disney provided Strange World for the Christmas family watch...so no need for the movie til Easter family gatherings...

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24 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

You'd think so but, anecdotal of course, you'd be surprised at how many have already told me they'll wait for streaming on Disney+ even after I stressed how great it looks on a premium screen...

It’s not just that. It’s truly about how much connected people are with a franchise. That takes time, effort and presence, something that Marvel and Star Wars were able to build. Avatar might be a technical marvel, gorgeous to look at, but there is a lot competing for the general public’s interest. I mean I’d be lying if I said this wasn’t my most anticipated December film:

 


judy garland GIF

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